WTPQ32 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.7N, 142.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE DISAPPEARANCE
  OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
  GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN
  TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
  IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
  TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
  DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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