WTPQ32 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.8N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
  LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
  DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
  FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
  BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
  DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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