WTPQ32 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.9N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
  SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
  THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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