WTPQ32 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR STS 2509 KROSA (2509)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
  ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
  SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
  OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
  DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN
  TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT
  ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE
  ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
  WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
  WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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