WTPQ32 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 23.4N, 164.5E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
  (NEOGURI) STATUS. TS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 23.6N, 163.5E.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
  ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
  VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
  SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
  ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
  AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=