WTPQ32 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 23.5N, 162.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
  BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
  SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
  GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
  THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, INCREASED
  VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
  FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS,
  INCREASED VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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