WTPQ32 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 153.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
  STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120.
  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
  OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT
  LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SAME
  WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
  DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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