WTPQ32 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 151.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
  BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
  MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE
  TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
  NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
  THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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