WTPQ32 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 151.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
  ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO
  WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
  OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
  DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
  BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
  THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
  OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
  TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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