WTPQ32 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 151.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
  THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
  ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
  GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
  TROUGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
  AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS
  AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
  OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=