WTPQ32 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 152.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED.
  METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
  WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
  TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
  UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
  AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
  FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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