WTPQ32 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 152.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND
  WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
  NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
  TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
  FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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