WTPQ32 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 153.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
  TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST
  BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
  GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
  TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
  TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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