WTPQ32 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 153.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
  DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
  STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
  FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
  MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
  UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
  TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
  TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
  INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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