WTPQ32 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 153.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE
  OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED MSI
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
  METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
  WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS
  UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
  BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
  THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
  IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
  TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
  DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
  TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
  CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
  OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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