WTPQ32 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 154.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
  ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
  BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
  SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
  STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
  THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
  MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
  UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
  THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120.
  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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