WTPQ32 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 30.6N, 155.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
  FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
  THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
  ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
  THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
  SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
  DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
  IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
  TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
  CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
  THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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