WTPQ32 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 32.5N, 157.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
  STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
  EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
  ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
  DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
  SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 IN A
  STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
  AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
  ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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