WTPQ32 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 32.9N, 156.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
  HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
  SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
  OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
  THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
  GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
  OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A
  STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
  AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
  ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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