WTPQ32 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 32.1N, 154.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
  FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
  THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
  BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
  SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
  IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
  THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
  TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
  NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
  THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
  TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
  CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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