WTPQ32 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 153.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE
  CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL LOOP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
  UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
  FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
  SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
  TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
  CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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