WTPQ32 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 32.2N, 153.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TCHP. THIS
  HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
  BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
  89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
  CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL LOOP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
  UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
  NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
  FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
  TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
  CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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