WTPQ32 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.43 FOR TY 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 35.9N, 164.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
  ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
  OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=