WTPQ33 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 14.2N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
  A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
  GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS
  89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
  FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
  FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
  WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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