WTPQ33 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
  MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
  THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
  WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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