WTPQ33 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY USAGI IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 121.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
  DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
  BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN
  ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
  WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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