WTPQ33 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 19.3N, 120.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
  OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
  GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
  INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN
  ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
  WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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