WTPQ33 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2425 USAGI (2425)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS USAGI IS LOCATED AT 22.2N, 120.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
  ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
  UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION
  OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
  DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
  ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
  WILL HIT TAIWAN ISLAND SOON. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
  WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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