WTPQ81 PGUM 232333 HLSPQ1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tropical Depression 12W Local Statement National Weather Service Tiyan GU 933 AM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025 ...TD 12W DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM GUAM... ...INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED AS 12W TURNS NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY... .NEW INFORMATION... None. .AREAS AFFECTED... This local statement provides important information and recommended actions for people in the Northern Marianas. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian, and Saipan, as well as for Agrihan, Pagan, and Alamagan. Tropical storm conditions are possible as early Friday morning for the specified areas depending on how quickly 12W intensifies. All persons in the watch areas should begin to take actions to prepare for low-end tropical storm conditions as indicated by your local forecast and additional details, below, for your island. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Please listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be issued for your area. Please check the latest public and marine forecasts for detailed information about additional hazards. .STORM INFORMATION... At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 12W was located near Latitude 13.5 degrees North and Longitude 144.0 degrees East. 12W is moving west-northwest at 2 mph. It is expected to make a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 12W is forecast to intensify through the weekend, and it may strengthen to a tropical storm sometime early Friday. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... A slow-moving TD 12W continues to drift west-northwest, away from Guam, but will turn north-northwest today. Showers, occasionally heavy, and increasing southeast to southwest winds and strong gusts will spread over the islands today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect based on the potential for 12W to intensify to a tropical storm tonight as it heads northward just west of the CNMI. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For those under a watch, continue preparations for your home or business according to your typhoon disaster plan. Listen for possible warnings and be ready to evacuate if necessary if your location is vulnerable to tropical storm conditions. Heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. For interests at ports, docks, and marinas, it is recommended that you perform the prescribed preparations according to your emergency operations plan for tropical cyclones. If you live on a boat, safely secure your craft and make plans to leave it for adequate land based shelter. Listen for possible warnings. Regarding the coastal waters under a watch, small craft should return to port or seek safe harbor. Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. For additional precautionary and preparedness information, please refer to the detailed recommendations relative to your location as further described by your local emergency management office. && .NEXT UPDATE... The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tiyan around 3 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant. MPZ001>003-240745- /O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ Rota-Tinian-Saipan- 933 AM ChST Thu Jul 24 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Preparations should focus on the potential for tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater. While the overall threat is not significant, there is the chance that 12W could intensify to a tropical storm just west of the CNMI Friday. Loose outdoor objects should be brought inside, including trash cans, tents, and canopies. Err on the side of caution. && .WIND INFORMATION... As Tropical Depression 12W slowly intensifies, the threat for sustained tropical storm force winds will increase. Current forecast track and intensity guidance suggests tropical storm winds of 39 mph and greater will stay just off shore to the west, but a slight eastward shift in the track would bring TS winds over the islands. Southeast winds will begin to increase later today, becoming increasingly gusty. Even as 12W moves farther away to the north tonight, stronger winds of 20 to 30 mph from the south to southwest will continue within a strong monsoon flow. .COASTAL INUNDATION AND SURF INFORMATION... Surf will initially rise along east and south facing reefs today, approaching hazardous levels of 12 ft and 9 ft, respectively. As 12W turns on a more northward heading west of the islands today, larger surf will focus along south and west facing reefs, reaching hazardous levels of 8 to 10 ft. Surf could increase another couple of feet, depending on 12W's motion and the overall wind field. Hazardous surf will maintain a high risk of rip currents so folks should stay out of the waters. Based on current wind and surf projections, coastal inundation would be slight, up to around 1 ft, focused more around times of high tide. .OTHER STORM EFFECTS... A Flood Watch is in effect for all 3 islands. Heavy rains will spread northward through today and tonight and will likely continue even as 12W later moves away from the islands due to the onset of a very wet southwest monsoon flow. Currently, 6 to 12 inches of rain is possible through Saturday night, and periods of very heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding. Additionally, the the risk of mudslides could increase with a prolonged multi-day heavy rain pattern. $$ ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Residents should keep aware of the latest trends regarding TD 12W. The latest track depicts a passage to the west of the islands with tropical storm conditions possible around late Friday and/or Saturday. Preparations should focus on securing loose items with anticipation for tropical storm winds of at least 39 mph. && .WIND INFORMATION... The latest forecast track shows TD 12W moving generally northward to the west of the islands Friday and Saturday. This will cause southeast winds to shift to south and increase overnight and Friday, becoming increasingly gusty as showers arrive around midday Friday. Latest forecast projections show south tropical storm winds of 35 to 40 mph arriving late Friday and gradually shifting to southwest Saturday, before diminishing sometime Sunday. Even then, a strong southwest monsoon pattern will prolong windy conditions through Sunday. .COASTAL INUNDATION AND SURF INFORMATION... Surf will initially rise along south facing reefs Friday, then spread to west facing reefs Saturday, exceeding hazardous levels of 9 ft. Surf along these windward shores could approach dangerous levels of 15 ft Saturday and Sunday and remain at hazardous levels of 10 to 14 ft into early next week due to the persistent monsoon flow. Rip currents during this time will be strong and life threatening. Stay out of the water. Minor wind and wave-driven coastal inundation of 1 to 2 feet will be possible along windward shores, especially around times of high tide as surf reaches peak heights Saturday and Sunday. .OTHER STORM EFFECTS... Scattered showers will persist through tonight but will increase beginning around midday Friday, becoming locally heavy Saturday and Sunday as 12W passes to the west. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible between Friday and Monday. Even after 12W begins to move away Sunday and Monday, a wet monsoon pattern will prolong showers across the islands. $$ W. Aydlett