WTPS12 NFFN 241800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 242016 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 170.5E
AT 241800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD10F SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. 

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
  
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT OF 2.0, MET AND PT
AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 17.0S 170.6E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 17.9S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 19.1S 171.7E MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 20.2S 172.3E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 241400 UTC.