WTPS12 NFFN 250600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 250809 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 170.6E AT
250600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 7
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT 
  AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING ONTO SUPPOSED
LLCC WITH OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM LIES
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARS BY THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH BANDING FEATURE YIELDING DT OF 3.0 AND PT AGREE
WHILE MET=2.5.
FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 18.3S 171.2E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 19.7S 172.1E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 21.2S 173.3E MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 22.4S 174.8E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 251400 UTC.