WTPS12 NFFN 251200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 251456 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU 10F CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 171.0E
AT 251200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. 
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. CYCLONE
INTENSIFYING. 

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
  
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH 0.7 WRAP GIVING DT OF 3.0 ADDING 0.5 BANDING
FEATURE YIELDING DT OF 3.5, MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T3.5./3.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 19.1S 171.5E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 20.4S 172.2E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 21.6S 173.3E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 22.6S 174.3E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 252000UTC.