WTPS12 NFFN 260000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 260124 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 986HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1S
171.6E AT 260000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. 

ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT 
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER LLCC. DRY AIR IS STARTING TO
GET TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME CLOUD TOP
WARMING IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SERU IS
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 400HPA. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
STRONG SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OF SERU MAY HINDER
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. 
  
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE SERU SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING FEATURE WHICH WRAPS ABOUT 0.8/0.85
ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 3.5, MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 20.5S 172.1E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 21.8S 172.9E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 22.7S 173.9E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 23.3S 175.0E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SERU [SEH-ROO] WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 260800 UTC.