WTPS12 NFFN 261200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 261331 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3S
171.1E AT 261200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING. 

ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
           AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS WITH ORGANISATION DETERIORATING. SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SUPPOSED
LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE LIES TO THE EAST. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. 
  
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE SERU SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING
IT.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF
2.5, MET AND PT AGREE WITH 3.0.
FT BASED ON PT, THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 22.6S 171.6E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 23.6S 172.6E MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 24.4S 173.7E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 24.8S 174.7E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SERU [SEH-ROO] WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 262000UTC.