WTPS12 NFFN 270000
PART 1 OF 2
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 270104 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1S
170.9E AT 270000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. 

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

CLOUD TOP WARMING CONTINUES TO AFFECT SERU. LLCC FULLY EXPOSED WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST . SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SUPPOSED
LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA. SST
AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. SERU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENCOUNTERING
HIGH SHEAR, DRY AIR AND COOLER SSTS AS IT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS.
 
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN WHERE SUPPOSED LLCC IS
SHEARED MORE THAN 60 NMI FROM STRONG T GRADIENT YIELDING DT OF 2.5,
MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON MET, THUS YIELDING T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 23.0S 171.8E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 23.5S 172.7E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE