WTPS12 NFFN 270600
PART 1 OF 2
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 270757 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S
171.0E AT 270600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIRIMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. 
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LLCC
FULLY EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SUPPOSED LLCC LIES IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING
UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. SERU IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ENCOUNTERING HIGH SHEAR, DRY AIR AND COOLER SST AS IT MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAS WEAKENED SERU INTO A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE AND HAS
VERY LOW CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN WHERE SUPPOSED LLCC IS
SHEARED MORE THAN 110 NM FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDING DT
OF 2.0, MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON MET, THUS YIELDING T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 23.0S 171.8E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE