WTXS21 PGTW 160030
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 91.7E TO 9.1S 87.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
91.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2S 91.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT AN AREA OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
ONLY HINDRANCE BEING MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IMPACTING 90S FROM THE EAST. CURRENT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 170030Z.
//
9025071400  37S 903E  20
9025071406  42S 900E  20
9025071412  48S 899E  25
9025071418  51S 908E  25
9025071500  56S 918E  25
// END PART 01 //