WTPA40 LIJR 220518 TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MESSAGE NUMBER 001 THIS IS AN AUTOMATIC ALERT FROM THE GLOBAL DISASTER ALERTS AND COORDINATION SYSTEM (WWW.GDACS.ORG) **************************************************** * RED ALERT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE PATRICIA-15 * **************************************************** SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE PATRICIA-15 CAN HAVE A HIGH HUMANITARIAN IMPACT BASED ON THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED AND THE AFFECTED POPULATION AND THEIR VULNERABILITY. UPDATED: THIS REPORT IS BASED ON ADVISORY NUMBER 7. WIND --------------- -TROPICAL CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM (MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 185.18 KM/H) -ON 22 OCT 2015 03:00:00 UTC -POPULATION AFFECTED BY CATEGORY 1 (120 KM/H) WIND SPEEDS OR HIGHER IS 300 K -VULNERABILITY: MEDIUM EXTREME RAIN -------------- POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS CALCULATED BASED ON RAINFALL OBSERVED BY SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE SENSORS. THE IMAGE SHOWS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE: HTTP://DMA.GDACS.ORG/SAVED/GDACS/TC/1000231/RAIN_1000231_7.PNG STORM SURGE ------------- THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE HEIGHT IS 0.4 M IN LA MANZANILLA (MEXICO). THIS HEIGHT IS ESTIMATED AT 10/24/2015 2:00:00 AM UTC. DETAILS =========== EVENT TIME LINE ---------------- THE STORM EVOLUTION IS SHOWN IN THE TABLE BELOW. ALERT LEVELS AND POPULATION ESTIMATES ARE RELATED TO THE AREA FROM A POINT TO THE NEXT. ADV. ALERT COL DATE UTC CATEGORY SPEED GUSTS POPULATION LAT/LON (WIND IN KM/H) AFFECTED 2 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 56 75 N/A -94.80/13.20 3 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) TROPICAL STORM 65 84 N/A -95.30/13.10 4 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) TROPICAL STORM 65 84 N/A -96.00/13.00 5 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) TROPICAL STORM 65 84 N/A -97.50/12.90 6 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) TROPICAL STORM 93 112 N/A -99.50/13.10 7 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) TROPICAL STORM 103 121 N/A -100.50/13.50 7 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 131 159 N/A -102.10/14.20 7 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 159 196 N/A -103.80/15.50 7 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 186 224 <1K -104.90/17.00 7 RED 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) HURRICANE/TYPHOON > 74 MPH 186 224 300 K -105.00/19.00 7 GREEN 22 OCT 2015 05:18 (X) TROPICAL STORM 56 75 N/A -103.20/24.10 ============================================================================================================ LIST OF 10 HEIGHEST STORM SURGE LOCATIONS CALCULATION BASED ON ADVISORY NUMBER 7 OF 22 OCT 2015 03:00:00 (SIMULATION USING 0.5 MINUTE RESOLUTION) ARRIVALTIME (UTC) LOCATION COUNTRY MAX EST. HEIGHT (M) 24 OCT 2015 02:00 LA MANZANILL MEXICO 0.4 24 OCT 2015 02:00 CUITZMALA MEXICO 0.3 24 OCT 2015 02:00 BARRA DE NAV MEXICO 0.3 24 OCT 2015 01:00 ESTRECHO MEXICO 0.2 24 OCT 2015 03:00 CHAMELA MEXICO 0.2 21 OCT 2015 15:00 HUAJAPAN MEXICO 0.2 21 OCT 2015 15:00 EL ROBLE MEXICO 0.2 24 OCT 2015 02:00 SANTIAGO MEXICO 0.2 24 OCT 2015 01:00 EL CIRUELO MEXICO 0.1 24 OCT 2015 01:00 MANZANILLO MEXICO 0.1 24 OCT 2015 01:00 CHUPADERO MEXICO 0.1 THE FULL LIST OF LOCATIONS CAN BE VISUALIZED IN THE GDACS PAGE OF THE EVENT: HTTP://WWW.GDACS.ORG/REPORT.ASPX?EVENTTYPE=TC$AND;EVENTID=1000231$AND;EPISODEID=7 JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE, EUROPEAN COMMISSION (JRC-EC) - OFFICE FOR COORDINATION OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS (UN-OCHA) ________________________________________ DISCLAIMER WHILE WE TRY EVERYTHING TO ENSURE ACCURACY, THIS INFORMATION IS PURELY INDICATIVE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR ANY DECISION MAKING WITHOUT ALTERNATE SOURCES OF INFORMATION. THE JRC IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGE OR LOSS RESULTING FROM THE USE OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON GDACS WEBSITE. PLEASE REFER TO THE GDACS WEBSITE FOR SUBSCRIBING OR UNSUBSCRIBING FROM THE EARTHQUAKE ALERT EMAIL OR SMS SERVICE. END OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MESSAGE 001