Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CEBILE-18
Off-shore

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GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-02-08 00:31

WTIO22 FMEE 080016

SECURITE

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 048/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 08/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  997 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.2 S / 79.5 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS  EXTENDING UP

TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 12 UTC:

25.9 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2018/02/09 AT 00 UTC:

26.5 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY EMITTED BY THE RSMC ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. IT

WILL BE MONITORED IN THE AWIO20 AND FQIO20 FMEE BULLETINS.=



2018-02-07 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 071814

SECURITE

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 047/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  995 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 80.1 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 06 UTC:

26.1 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 18 UTC:

26.2 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-07 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 071204

SECURITE

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 046/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  988 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 80.8 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 00 UTC:

26.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 12 UTC:

26.3 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-07 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 070603

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 045/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 07/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  985 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 81.4 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS  EXTENDING UP TO

35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 18 UTC:

26.6 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/08 AT 06 UTC:

26.3 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-06 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 061813

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 043/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  982 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 82.1 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS  EXTENDING UP

TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 06 UTC:

27.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 18 UTC:

26.7 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-06 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 061218

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 042/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  980 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 81.8 E

(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 00 UTC:

26.9 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 12 UTC:

26.9 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, FILLING UP



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-06 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 060617

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 041/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  980 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 82.0 E

(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS  EXTENDING UP TO

40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 18 UTC:

26.6 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 06 UTC:

26.7 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-06 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 060008

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 040/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 06/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  980 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 81.8 E

(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 MN FROM THE CENTER IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 12 UTC:

26.1 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/07 AT 00 UTC:

26.6 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 051809

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 039/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  978 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 81.8 E

(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 06 UTC:

25.9 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 18 UTC:

26.7 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 051213

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 038/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  978 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 81.6 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 225 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 00 UTC:

25.2 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 12 UTC:

26.5 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTXS51 PGTW 041500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180204140323

2018020412 07S CEBILE     035  01 150 07 SATL 035

T000 209S 0802E 060 R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034

    145 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 221S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034

    155 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD

T024 236S 0810E 045 R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD

T036 249S 0810E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 261S 0808E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 075 NW QD

T072 273S 0797E 035 R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD

T096 278S 0776E 030

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   041200Z --- NEAR 20.9S 80.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 80.2E



2018-02-05 07:31

WTXS51 PGTW 041500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180204140323

2018020412 07S CEBILE     035  01 150 07 SATL 035

T000 209S 0802E 060 R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 221S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD

T024 236S 0810E 045 R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD

T036 249S 0810E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 261S 0808E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 075 NW QD

T072 273S 0797E 035 R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD

T096 278S 0776E 030

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 035

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   041200Z --- NEAR 20.9S 80.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 80.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 22.1S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 23.6S 81.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 24.9S 81.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 26.1S 80.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 27.3S 79.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 27.8S 77.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

041500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 80.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 941 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD

AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020212 174S 757E 110

0718020212 174S 757E 110

0718020212 174S 757E 110

0718020218 178S 760E 110

0718020218 178S 760E 110

0718020218 178S 760E 110

0718020300 181S 764E 105

0718020300 181S 764E 105

0718020300 181S 764E 105

0718020306 184S 771E  95

0718020306 184S 771E  95

0718020306 184S 771E  95

0718020312 187S 778E  85

0718020312 187S 778E  85

0718020312 187S 778E  85

0718020318 191S 786E  75

0718020318 191S 786E  75

0718020318 191S 786E  75

0718020400 196S 793E  70

0718020400 196S 793E  70

0718020400 196S 793E  70

0718020406 203S 798E  65

0718020406 203S 798E  65

0718020406 203S 798E  65

0718020412 209S 802E  60

0718020412 209S 802E  60



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 041216



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/5/20172018

1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 80.2 E

(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES DEUX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-EST 8 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 978 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :83 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 410 NO: 190

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SO: 300 NO: 170

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110





7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

24H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

36H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

48H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

60H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

72H: 07/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 08/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

SE COMBLANT

120H: 09/02/2018 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION

SE COMBLANT



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=2.5 CI=3.5



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE CENTRE EST APPARU COMPLETEMENT

EXPOSE SOUS L'EFFET DU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST

(ESTIME A 25/30 KT A 0600Z PAR LE CIMSS). LA CONVECTION PROFONDE

RESTE LOCALISEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST AVEC DES SOMMETS DE MOINS EN

MOINS FROIDS.



CEBILE POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA

DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, CETTE DORSALE SE RENFORCE ET INFLECHIT LA

TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, ALORS QUE LA SITUATION

DE MOYENNE /BASSE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRA S MERIDIENNE, UNE DORSALE

SE DEVELOPPE AU SUD DU SYTEME. CETTE DORSALE VA ALORS RALENTIR LE

SYSTEME PUIS ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN ACCA LA RANT

JEUDI.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE EST DEFAVORABLE. LE CONTENU

OCEANIQUE EST FAIBLE. EN ALTITUDE, LE FLUX EST RAPIDE A L'AVANT D'UN

PROFOND TALWEG ET GENERE UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE

SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. SEULE UNE FORTE CONFLUENCE EN ENTREE DU JET

LOCALISEE AU SUD IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME GENERE UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE

D'ALTITUDE QUI SOUTIENT LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE

SUD DU SYSTEME. AUSSI, CEBILE EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR MAIS CONSERVER UN

COEUR CHAUD DEVENANT DE MOINS EN MOINS PROFOND. DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI

A MERCREDI, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE DA CALE AU DESSUS DU SYSTA ME.

AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LA CONVECTION POURRAIT SE DA VELOPPER

PRES DU CENTRE. MAIS, MERCREDI SOIR, LA REPRISE D'UN FORT

CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD A L'ARRIA RE DU TALWEG PUIS L'ARRIVA E

D'UNE DORSALE DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT AMORCER LE COMBLEMENT DU

SYSTEME.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 040610



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/5/20172018

1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 79.7 E

(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-EST 7 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 976 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :83 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 410 NO: 190

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SO: 300 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 120





7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE

TROPICALE MODEREE

24H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

36H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

48H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

60H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

72H: 07/02/2018 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 08/02/2018 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION

SE COMBLANT

120H: 09/02/2018 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX=000 , DEPRESSION

SE COMBLANT



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=3.0 CI=4.0-



LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES MONTRENT UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES

PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT

FORT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE LOCALISEE

DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST AVEC DES SOMMETS DE MOINS EN MOINS FROIDS.

L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON ET LA

RECENTE PASSE PARTIELLE ASCAT DE 0331Z.



LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES

PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX

DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET

AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS

FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD

DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU

CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS ENTRE 25S ET 30S SUR UNE

TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE EST DEFAVORABLE. LE CONTENU

OCEANIQUE EST FAIBLE. EN ALTITUDE, LE FLUX EST RAPIDE A L'AVANT D'UN

PROFOND TALWEG ET GENERE UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE

SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. SEULE UNE FORTE CONFLUENCE EN ENTREE DU JET

LOCALISEE AU SUD IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME GENERE UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE

D'ALTITUDE QUI SOUTIENT LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE

SUD DU SYSTEME. AUSSI, CEBILE EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR MAIS CONSERVER UN

COEUR CHAUD MAIS DE MOINS EN MOINS PROFOND. DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A

MERCREDI, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE SE DA CALE AU DESSUS DU SYSTA ME. AVEC

LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LA CONVECTION POURRAIT SE DA VELOPPER PRES

DU CENTRE. MAIS, MERCREDI SOIR, LA REPRISE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE

SECTEUR SUD A L'ARRIA RE DU TALWEG PUIS L'ARRIVA E D'UNE DORSALE

DYNAMIQUE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT AMORCER LE COMBLEMENT DU SYSTEME.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 040026



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E

(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  EST-SUD-EST 7 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :70 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 220

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 200 NO: 160

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

24H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

48H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

60H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

72H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 08/02/2018 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 09/02/2018 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

EXTRATROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=3.5+ CI=4.5-



LA PHASE DE DESTRUCTURATION SEMBLE ENFIN SE CONCRETISER, AVEC UNE

CONFIGURATION QUI EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE

MEME SI UN OEIL EN ALTITUDE COMPLETEMENT DEPHASE AVEC LA CIRCULATION

DE BASSES COUCHES PERSISTE ENCORE SUR LES IMAGES SATELITE.

LA DERNIERE MICRO-ONDE RECUE POUR CE BULLETIN (SSMIS DE 2236Z) MONTRE

QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SE MAINTIENT BIEN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

L'AFFAIBLISEMENT RESTE LENT EN RAISON DE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE QUI

PERSISTE AU SUD, ET LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME QUI REDUIT POUR LE

MOMENT LA CISAILLEMENT RELATIF. NEANMOINS LE SYSTEME ARRIVE SUR DES

EAUX AU POTENTIAL ENERGETIQUE REDUIT.



LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES

PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX

DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET

AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS

FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD

DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU

CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS ENTRE 25S ET 30S SUR UNE

TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE NE RESTE PLUS VRAIMENT

FAVORABLE ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU MINIMUM LENT EST ATTENDU AU COURS

DES PROCHAINES 36H. EN INTERACTION CROISSANTE AVEC LE JET D'OUEST

SUBTROPICAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER SA TRANSITION

EXTRA-TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE MAIS EN GARDANT UN

COEUR CHAUD SUFFISAMMENT SYMETRIQUE POUR AVOIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES

MIXTES (PHASE POST-TROPICALE). LES DERNIERES SORTIES DE MODELES

NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT QU'A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INTERACTION AVEC UNE

ANOMALIE DE TROPOPAUSE DYNAMIQUE POURRAIT RENFORCER TEMPORAIREMENT LA

CIRCULATION. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE

ASSOCIE AUX ANOMALIES, S'EVACUE VERS L'EST, PLACANT LE SYSTEME

GRADUELLEMENT DANS LA ZONE DES SUBSIDENCES SYNOPTIQUES. UNE PHASE

D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE ET PROBABLEMENT DEFINITIVE, EST ALORS

ATTENDUE.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 031827



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 78.4 E

(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  EST-SUD-EST 6 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 964 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :70 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 280 NO: 220

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 200 NO: 160

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

60H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

72H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 07/02/2018 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 08/02/2018 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=4.0- CI=4.5+



LA PHASE DE DESTRUCTURATION SEMBLE ENFIN SE CONCRETISER SUR LES

TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION QUI EVOLUE

PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE MEME SI UN OEIL EN

ALTITUDE COMPLETEMENT DEPHASE AVEC LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES

PERSISTE ENCORE SUR LES IMAGES SATELITE.

LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES RECUES POUR CE BULLETIN (SSSMIS DE 1309Z ET

DE 1341Z) MONTRENT UNE SIGNATURE QUI A GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS

CE MATIN. L'INTENSITE A DONC FAIBLIT QUE LEGEREMENT.



LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU COURS DES

PROCHAINES 12H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX

DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET

AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS

FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD

DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU

CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS ENTRE 25S ET 30S.



LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT ET LA BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT RELATIF

INDUITE A PROBABLEMENT LIMITER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AUJOURD'HUI. LE

CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE NE RESTE PLUS VRAIMENT FAVORABLE

ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU MINIMUM LENT EST ATTENDU AU COURS DES

PROCHAINES 48H. EN INTERACTION CROISSANTE AVEC LE JET D'OUEST

SUBTROPICAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER SA TRANSITION

EXTRA-TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE MAIS EN GARDANT UN

COEUR CHAUD SUFFISAMMENT SYMETRIQUE POUR AVOIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES

MIXTES (PHASE POST-TROPICALE). LES DERNIERES SORTIES DE MODELES

NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT QU'A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INTERACTION AVEC UNE

ANOMALIE DE TROPOPAUSE DYNAMIQUE POURRAIT RENFORCER TEMPORAIREMENT LA

CIRCULATION. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE

ASSOCIE AUX ANOMALIES, S'EVACUE VERS L'EST, PLACANT LE SYSTEME

GRADUELLEMENT DANS LA ZONE DES SUBSIDENCES SYNOPTIQUES. UNE PHASE

D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE ET PROBABLEMENT DEFINITIVE, EST ALORS

ATTENDUE.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 031307



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 77.9 E

(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-EST 9 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :69 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 330 NO: 240

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 160

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SO: 130 NO: 100

64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 80



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

60H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

72H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 07/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 08/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=4.0 CI=4.5+



LA PHASE DE DESTRUCTURATION QUI SEMBLAIT S'AMORCER CE MATIN NE S'EST

PAS CONFIRMEE CET APRES-MIDI. CEBILE A MAINTENU UNE CONFIGURATION

NUAGEUSE STATIONNAIRE AVEC UN OEIL DECHIQUETTE EN VISIBLE ET

FINALEMENT INTERMITTANT EN IR. LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES RECUES POUR

CE BULLETIN (AMSR2 DE 0728Z ET AMSUB N19 DE 1045Z) MONTRENT UNE

SIGNATURE QUI A PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS CE MATIN. L'INTENSITE EST DONC

INCHANGEE.



LE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SEMBLE AVOIR COMMENCE ET DEVRAIT SE

MAINTENIR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA BAISSE

DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR VERS 700-600 HPA OU UNE DORSALE SE

RECONSTRUIT A L'EST ET AU SUD DU SYSTEME VA RE-ORIENTER LA

TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. LA RECONSTRUCTION

DE LA DORSALE AU SUD DEVRAIT MEME GENER CETTE PROGRESSION A PARTIR DU

MILIEU DE SEMAINE OU CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS VEGETER QUELQUES JOURS

ENTRE 25S ET 30S.



LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT ET LA BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT RELATIF

INDUITE A PROBABLEMENT LIMITER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AUJOURD'HUI. LE

CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE NE RESTE PLUS VRAIMENT FAVORABLE

ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU MINIMUM LENT EST ATTENDU AU COURS DES

PROCHAINES 48H. EN INTERACTION CROISSANTE AVEC LE JET D'OUEST

SUBTROPICAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER SA TRANSITION

EXTRA-TROPICALE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE MAIS EN GARDANT UN

COEUR CHAUD SUFFISAMMENT SYMETRIQUE POUR AVOIR DES CARACTERISTIQUES

MIXTES (PHASE POST-TROPICALE). LES DERNIERES SORTIES DE MODELES

NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT QU'A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'INTERACTION AVEC UNE

ANOMALIE DE TROPOPAUSE DYNAMIQUE POURRAIT RENFORCER TEMPORAIREMENT LA

CIRCULATION. EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE

ASSOCIE AUX ANOMALIES, S'EVACUE VERS L'EST, PLACANT LE SYSTEME

GRADUELLEMENT DANS LA ZONE DES SUBSIDENCES SYNOPTIQUES. UNE PHASE

D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE ET PROBABLEMENT DEFINITIVE, EST ALORS

ATTENDUE.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 030658



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 77.0 E

(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  EST-SUD-EST 7 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SO: 330 NO: 240

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 160

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100

64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

60H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

72H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 07/02/2018 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 08/02/2018 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=4.0 CI=5.0- (CI 00Z CORRIGE A 5.0-)



CEBILE COMMENCE A SOUFFRIR SENSIBLEMENT. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SE

DETERIORE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL QUI EST ENTRAIN DE S'EFFACER

EN IR RENFORCE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE CE MATIN METTENT EN

EVIDENCE UN DECALAGE EN HAUSSE ENTRE L'OEIL VU EN IR SUR MSG-1 (PLUS

A L'EST) ET L'OEIL DE BASSES COUCHES VU EN 37 GHZ, QUI SEMBLE ALLER

AU-DELA DE L'EFFET DE PARALLAXE SUR MSG-1. IL S'AGIT

VRAISEMBLABLEMENT D'UNE CONSEQUENCE DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT

D'OUEST. LA PRESENCE COMBINEE D'AIR SEC DANS L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIT

AUSSI ACCENTUER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES 12H.



L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 75 KT POUR RESTER PROCHE DU CONSENSUS DES

ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES QUI EST AUTOUR DE 80 KT (VENTS 10 MIN) A

0349Z.



LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE CE MATIN ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISER UN PEU

PLUS AU NORD LA POSITION DE 00Z CE QUI MONTRE QUE LE SYSTEME EST

MAINTENANT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST QUI DEVRAIT

GRADUELLEMENT S'ORIENTER AU SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. A

PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD PERMET DE DA CALER VERS

L'EST LES HAUTES PRESSIONS ET ORIENTE AINSI LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE

PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD MAIS SANS REELLE ACCELERATION. LA

RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS GA NER CETTE

PROGRESSION VERS LE SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI COMME LE LAISSE A PENSER LA

DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE IFS.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE N'EST VRAIMENT PLUS FAVORABLE

A UN MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITE POUR LE CYCLONE CEBILE. LE DEFERLEMENT

D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME A MIS EN PLACE D'UNE

CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST QUI PERTURBE LA CONVECTION. CEBILE

S'AFFAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET CONTINUERA

CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVANT D'ENTAMER SA TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE EN

DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS DANS LE

QUADRANT SUD ET S'ELOIGNANT DU CENTRE.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 041216



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/5/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 80.2 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY    DECIMAL TWO

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 300 NW: 170

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/02/07 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/08 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2018/02/09 12 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.5 CI=3.5



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTER HAS APPEARED FULLY EXPOSED DUE TO

THE STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS

LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BUT WITH WARMER AND WARMER TOP

CLOUDS.



CEBILE KEEPS ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK STEERING BY THE MID LEVEL

RIDGE LOCATED ON NORTHEASTERN OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW, THE

SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS RIDGE.

FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIAN, A

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS A CONSEQUENCE,

THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND RE-ORIENT ITS TRACK WESTWARD FROM

THURSDAY.



ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT IS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RAPID AHEAD A TROUGH AND

GENERATES A STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY A STRONG

CONFLUENCE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF

THE SYSTEM SUPPLIES A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT SUSTAINS DEEP

CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SO, CEBILE IS

FORECASTED TO WEAKEN BUT IT SHOULD CONSERVE A WARM CORE BECOMING LESS

AND LESS DEEP. TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT

ABOVE THE CIRCULATION. THE DECREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COULD ALLOW

THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. BUT, WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN

INCREASING SOUTHERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BEHING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL RIDGE SHOULD INITIATE THE

FILLING OF CEBILE.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 040610



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/5/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 79.7 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SW: 300 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 120





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/02/07 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/08 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2018/02/09 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , FILLING UP



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0 CI=4.0-



THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERIES SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED

DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION

REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BUT WITH WARMER AND

WARMER TOP CLOUDS. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATION IS CONSISTENT WITH

SATCON ESTIMATION AND WITH THE LAST 0331Z PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH.



THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT

600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH

OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF

THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM

WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW

DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S TRACKING WESTWARDS.



ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOW UNFAVORABLE. OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT IS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RAPID AND GENERATES A STRONG

NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY A STRONG CONFLUENCE IN

ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM

SUPPLIES A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT SUSTAINS DEEP CONVECTION

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SO, CEBILE IS FORECASTED

TO WEAKEN AS IT SHOULD KEEP A WARM CORE. TUESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT ABOVE THE CIRCULATION. THE DECREASING

VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE

CENTER. BUT, WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN INCREASING SOUTHERN VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR BEHING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER

LEVEL DYNAMICAL RIDGE SHOULD INITIATE THE FILLING OF CEBILE.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 040026



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/04 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE

DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :70 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 160

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/08 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/09 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.5+ CI=4.5-



THE WEAKENING TREND SEEMS TO BE GOING ON , WITH A PATTERN BECOMING

PROGRESSIVELY SHEAR STRUCTURE, EVEN IF AN EYE DISCONNECTED WITH THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALWAYS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY (SSMIS AT 2236Z) SHOWS

DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE. THE WEAKENING TREND

REMAINS SLOW AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD IN THE SOUTH AND THE

FORWARD MOTION INDUCES FOR THE MOMENT LOWERING OF THE RELATIVE SHEAR.

HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS ARRIVING OVER WATERS OF REDUCE ENERGETIC

POTENTIAL.



THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT

600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH

OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF

THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM

WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW

DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S TRACKING WESTWARDS.



ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A

SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH AN

INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS

EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER SYMMETRICAL

WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD

SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS (POST-TROPICAL PHASES).

LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY,

INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES MAY STRENGTHEN

TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT

WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL SUBSIDENCE. A

STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THAT

TIME.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 031827



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 78.4 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :70 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 160

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/07 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/08 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.0- CI=4.5+



THE WEAKENING TREND SEEMS TO BEGIN  IN THE VERY LAST HOURS, WITH A

PATTERN BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY SHEAR STRUCTURE, EVEN IF AN EYE

DISCONECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALWAYS VISIBLE ON

SATELLITE IMAGERY.

LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY (SSMIS AT 1309Z AND

1341Z) SHOW A MW SIGNATURE THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE INTENSITY

ASSESSMENT HAS THEREFORE WEAKENED VERY SLIGHTLY.



THE GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT

600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH

OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF

THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM

WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW

DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.



THE ACCELERATING FORWARD MOTION AND THE INDUCED LOWERING OF THE

RELATIVE SHEAR MAY HAVE FINALLY PLAY TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING TREND

TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT

FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE

IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A

RATHER SYMMETRICAL WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS

(POST-TROPICAL PHASES). LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM

TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES

MAY STRENGTHEN TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL

SUBSIDENCE. A STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS

EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 031307



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 77.9 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN

DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :69 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 160

48 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 130 NW: 100

64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/07 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/08 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.0 CI=4.5+



THE WEAKENING TREND SEEN THIS MORNING HAS STOPPED. CEBILE HAS

MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE ON VIS IMAGERY AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE HAS

POPPED UP ON EIR IMAGERY. LATEST MW IMAGERY AVAILABLE FOR THIS

ADVISORY (AMSR2 AT 0728Z AND AMSUB N19 AT 1045Z) SHOW A MW SIGNATURE

THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT

IS THEREFORE UNCHANGED.



THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-EAST SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN AND THIS GENERAL

TRACK IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM MONDAY,

A LOWER STEERING LEVEL AT 600-700 HPA, WHERE A RIDGE IS EXPECT TO

BUILD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE TRACK

SOUTHWARDS. THE REBUILT OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE SHOULD EVEN GRADUALLY

SLOW DOWN THE TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOW LIKELY THAT THE

SYSTEM WILL MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS BETWEEN 25S AND 30S.



THE ACCELERATING FORWARD MOTION AND THE INDUCED LOWERING OF THE

RELATIVE SHEAR MAY HAVE FINALLY PLAY TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING TREND

TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS STILL NOT

FAVORABLE AND AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE JOST, CEBILE

IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A

RATHER SYMMETRICAL WARM-CORE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DURING MUCH OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD SO CEBILE WILL EXHIBIT MIXED CHARACTERISTICS

(POST-TROPICAL PHASES). LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FROM

TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, INTERACTION WITH DYNAMICAL TROPOPAUSE ANOMALIES

MAY STRENGTHEN TEMPORARILY THE CIRCULATION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALIES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF ENHANCED SYNOPTICAL

SUBSIDENCE. A STRONGER AND LIKELY DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS

EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 030658



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 77.0 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 300 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 160

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100

64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/07 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/08 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.0 CI=5.0- (CI 00Z CORRECTED AT 5.0-)



CEBILE IS SUFFERING: THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED WITH AN EYE

PATTERN NO MORE EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. MW DATA OF THIS MORNING SHOW

STRONG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EYE AS SEEN WITH MSG-1 IN IR (MORE TO

THE EAST) AND THE LOW LEVEL EYE SEEN ON 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE

DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO GO BEYOND THE PARALLAX ASSOCIATED WITH MSG-1 AND

IS PROBABLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT. DRY

ENVIRONMENTAL AIR WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING TREND

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.



THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT AT 75 KT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

LATEST CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AT 0349Z NEAR 80 KT (10 MIN

WINDS).



MW OF THIS MORNING WAS ALSO USEFUL TO RELOCATE THE CENTER NORTHWARD

AND TO ASSESS A SLOW EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS MOTION SHOULD

GRADUALLY BEND SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM MONDAY,

THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH ALLOWS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST THE

HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS REORIENTED THE CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER

SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL ACCELERATION. THE REBUILT OF THE SOUTHERN

RIDGE COULD, HOWEVER, DISTURB THIS PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD FROM

THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE

INTENSITY FOR THE CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF

THE SYSTEM ALLOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S

INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER

COOLER SST, AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING BEFORE STARTING ITS

POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION EARLY NEWT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN

THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, FAR FROM THE CENTER.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 050607

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 037/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  977 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 81.6 E

(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE

SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 18 UTC:

24.2 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 06 UTC:

25.6 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 050021

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 036/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 05/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  973 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 81.1 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 185 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 12 UTC:

23.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/06 AT 00 UTC:

25.2 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 041813

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 035/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5  (EX-CEBILE)  973 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 80.6 E

(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 185 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 06 UTC:

23.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 18 UTC:

24.6 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

ASCAT DATA AT 16Z HAS SHOWN THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY

ESTIMATED.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 041212

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 034/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5  (CEBILE)  978 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 80.2 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 MN FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE

SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 00 UTC:

22.3 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 12 UTC:

24.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 040609

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 033/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5  (CEBILE)  976 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 79.7 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 18 UTC:

21.8 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 06 UTC:

23.1 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 040101 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 032/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  968 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A

45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM

IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 12 UTC:

20.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 00 UTC:

22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 040019

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 001/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 04/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  968 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 79.2 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A

45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM

IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A

45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM

IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 12 UTC:

20.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2018/02/05 AT 00 UTC:

22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 031828

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 031/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  964 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 78.4 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 350

 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM

IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 06 UTC:

20.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 18 UTC:

21.7 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 031224

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 030/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  958 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 77.9 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM

IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.





FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 00 UTC:

19.9 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 12 UTC:

21.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-05 07:31

WTIO20 FMEE 030622

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 029/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  958 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 77.0 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM

IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 18 UTC:

19.0 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 06 UTC:

20.3 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

WINDS RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO ASCAT-B DATA AT 0351Z.

00Z POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED AT 17.9S AND 76.3E.=



2018-02-03 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 030300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180203011540

2018020300 07S CEBILE     029  01 130 05 SATL 030

T000 181S 0764E 105 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD

    145 SW QD 150 NW QD

T012 187S 0775E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 196S 0787E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD

    140 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 206S 0797E 065 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD

    130 SW QD 105 NW QD

T048 219S 0804E 060 R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    185 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD

T072 244S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034

    185 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 266S 0806E 045 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 085 NW QD

T120 285S 0794E 040 R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   030000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 76.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:



2018-02-03 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 030300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180203011540

2018020300 07S CEBILE     029  01 130 05 SATL 030

T000 181S 0764E 105 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 150 NW QD

T012 187S 0775E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 196S 0787E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 206S 0797E 065 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD

T048 219S 0804E 060 R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD

T072 244S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 266S 0806E 045 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 085 NW QD

T120 285S 0794E 040 R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 029

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   030000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 76.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 76.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.7S 77.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 19.6S 78.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 20.6S 79.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 21.9S 80.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 24.4S 81.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 26.6S 80.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 28.5S 79.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 76.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 698 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020212 174S 757E 110

0718020212 174S 757E 110

0718020212 174S 757E 110

0718020218 178S 760E 110

0718020218 178S 760E 110

0718020218 178S 760E 110

0718020300 181S 764E 105

0718020300 181S 764E 105

0718020300 181S 764E 105



2018-02-03 01:01

WTIO31 FMEE 030024



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 76.4 E

(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 08/02/2018 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=4.5



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE EN OEIL DE

CEBILE A ETE TRES FLUCTUANTE. SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST

-NORD-OUEST, LA CONVECTION DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST A QUASIMENT DISPARUE

SUR LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. CELA EST AUSSI REMARQUABLE SUR LES IMAGES

MICRO-ONDES DE 2331UTC. CETTE CONTRAINTE CONTRIBUE A DIMINUER

L'INTENSITE ET CEBILE SE SITUE MAINTENANT DANS UNE PHASE

D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PLUS LONG TERME.



LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE A PRIS LA MAIN SUR

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CYCLONE EN L'ORIENTANT VERS LE SUD-EST. LE

DEPLACEMENT VA LEGEREMENT S'ACCELERER AU COURS DE LA JOURNEE DE

SAMEDI. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD PERMET DE DA

CALER VERS L'EST LES HAUTES PRESSIONS ET ORIENTE AINSI LA TRAJECTOIRE

DE CEBILE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD MAIS SANS REELLE ACCELERATION.

LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE AU SUD POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS GA NER

CETTE PROGRESSION VERS LE SUD A PARTIR DE JEUDI COMME LE LAISSE A

PENSER LA DISPERSION DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE IFS.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE N'EST VRAIMENT PLUS FAVORABLE

A UN MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITE POUR LE CYCLONE CEBILE. LE DEFERLEMENT

D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME A MIS EN PLACE D'UNE

CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST QUI PERTURBE LA CONVECTION. CEBILE

S'AFFAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET CONTINUERA

CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVANT D'ENTAMER SA TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE A

PARTIR DE MARDI AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS DANS LE QUADRANT SUD ET

S'ELOIGNANT DU CENTRE.=



2018-02-03 01:01

WTIO30 FMEE 030024



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/03 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 76.4 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/08 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.5



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF CEBILE WAS VERY

FLUCTUATING. UNDER THE EFFECT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER

CONSTRAINT, CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN AREA HAS QUASIALLY DISAPPEARED

IN INFRARED DATA. THIS IS ALSO REMARKABLE ON 2331 UTC MICROWAVE

IMAGES. THIS UPPER CONSTRAINT CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING INTENSITY AND

CEBILE IS NOW IN A LOWER-TERM PHASE OF WEAKENING.



THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TAKE NOW THE

CYCLONE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DISPLACEMENT WILL

SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE TODAY.  FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH AT

SOUTH ALLOWS TO MOVE EAST HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS ORIENTED THE

CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL ACCELERATION. THE

RECONSTRUCTION OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE COULD, HOWEVER, DISTURB THIS

PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD FROM THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED THE ENSEMBLIST

FORECAST OF THE IFS NUMERICAL MODEL.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE

INTENSITY FOR THE CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF

THE SYSTEM ALLOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S

INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER

COOLER SST, AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING BEFORE STARTING ITS

POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE

SOUTHERN QUADRANT, FAR FROM THE CENTER.=



2018-02-03 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 030005

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 028/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 03/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  958 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 76.4 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 12 UTC:

18.7 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 00 UTC:

19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-02 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 021814



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 76.1 E

(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES UN EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 07/02/2018 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=5.0+



LA STRUCTURE CONVECTIVE EN OEIL DE CEBILE A REPRIS UNE MEILLEURE

ALLURE DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, PERMETTANT DE MAINTENIR VOIRE

AMELIORER LEGEREMENT SON INTENSITE. CEPENDANT, CEBILE SE SITUE

MAINTENANT DANS UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLIESSEMENT A PLUS LONG TERME. IL Y

A 6 HEURES, A 1200UTC, CEBILE EST PASSE AU PLUS PRES DE LA BOUEE

2301521 ,A 30MN AU NORD-EST. LA PRESSION MESUREE ETAIT DE 974.1HPA.



CEBILE A ENTAME SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST SUITE A

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE RENFORCEMENT ACTUEL

DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE VA PRENDRE EN MAIN LA TRAJECTOIRE DU

CYCLONE EN L'ORIENTANT VERS LE SUD-EST ET EN L'ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT.

A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD PERMET DE DA CALER

VERS L'EST LES HAUTES PRESSIONS ET ORIENTE AINSI LA TRAJECTOIRE DE

CEBILE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD MAIS SANS REELLE ACCELERATION.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE N'EST PLUS AVANTAGEUX POUR LE

CYCLONE CEBILE. LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU

SYSTEME PERMET LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST.

CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT, SUR DES EAUX PLUS

FRAA CHES ET ENTAMER SA TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE A PARTIR DE MARDI

AVEC DES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS S'ELOIGNANT DU CENTRE, DANS LE QUADRANT

SUD.=



2018-02-02 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 021814



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 76.1 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/07 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.0+



THE EYE PATTERN OF CEBILE IS MORE PRETTY SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS, THIS

ALLOW TO MAINTAIN OR TO IMPROVE ITS INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER,

CEBILE IS NOW IN A LONG-TERM PHASE OF WEAKENING. 6 HOURS AGO, AT

1200UTC, CEBILE IS PAST NEAR BUOY 2301521, 30 NM NORTHEAST. THE

MEASURED PRESSURE WAS 974.1HPA.



CEBILE BEGIN ITS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE TRACK TOWARDS THE

SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IT SLIGHTLY. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF

A TROUGH AT SOUTH ALLOWS TO MOVE EAST HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS

ORIENTED THE CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL

ACCELERATION.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NO LONGER ADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE

CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWS

A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST

TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST, AND START ITS

POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FAR

FROM THE CENTER, IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.=



2018-02-02 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 021804

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  955 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 76.1 E

(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 06 UTC:

18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 18 UTC:

19.2 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS51 PGTW 020900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202080653

2018020206 07S CEBILE     026  01 190 05 SATL 020

T000 170S 0756E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD

    160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 177S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD

    160 SW QD 145 NW QD

T024 182S 0768E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD

    145 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 189S 0781E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD

    145 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 199S 0793E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD

    145 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 225S 0810E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD

    160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 247S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034

    190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD

T120 278S 0809E 045 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E



2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS51 PGTW 020900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202080653

2018020206 07S CEBILE     026  01 190 05 SATL 020

T000 170S 0756E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 177S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 145 NW QD

T024 182S 0768E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 189S 0781E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 199S 0793E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 225S 0810E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 247S 0810E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD

T120 278S 0809E 045 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020206 170S 756E 115

0718020206 170S 756E 115



2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS31 PGTW 020900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-02-02 13:16

WTXS31 PGTW 020900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 60 NM EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING. THE

CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE

EYE FEATURE IN THE 0202044Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B PASS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS

STILL WELL ORGANIZED, THE EIR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS

DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW

END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.0

(115 KNOTS) FROM KNES TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE

WEAKENING TREND: BOTH FIXES HAVE DECREASED IN CURRENT INTENSITY AND

FORECAST T-NUMBER FROM THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS

(5-15 KNOTS), MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28-29

DEG C), AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST

ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE

NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE

NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY

IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WANING, WITH TC 07S ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS AND LOWER SSTS AFTER TAU 48. TC 07S

WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE

FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120.

ALL NUMERICAL MODELS CAPTURE THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTERN TRACK IN THE

NEAR TERM, WITH A LATER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT

IN SPEED AND SPREAD IN LATER TAUS. HWRF IS A PARTICULAR EASTERN

OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY OF TC 07S LONGER THAN OTHER

MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS.

IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//



2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 021218



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 75.8 E

(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES HUIT EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

48H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 07/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=4.5+ CI=5.0+



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A POURSUIVI SON

AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC UN OEIL DEVENANT PLUS LARGE ET ALLONGE.

CETTE VARIATION POURRAIT ETRE LA CONSEQUENCE D'UN RETOUR SUR DES EAUX

A MOINDRE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE D'APRES LES DONNEES MERCATOR ET

L'ENROULEMENT D'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.

LA PASSE AMSU  DE 1057Z  CONFIRME CETTE TENDANCE AVEC UN MUR OUVERT

DANS LE QUADRANT NORD.



CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD A SUD-SUD-EST,

SUITE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LA NUIT

PROCHAINE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE

SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT.

EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER

CEBILE, L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER. UNE

FAIBLE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST SE MET EN PLACE PROGRESSIVEMENT

AUJOURD'HUI ET SE RENFORCER SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE DEFERLEMENT

D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS

S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA PROXIMITE

D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE, UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE L'OCEAN

INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR CHAUD

D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA

PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=



2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 020633



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 75.5 E

(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 954 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 07/02/2018 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0 CI=5.5



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE PHASE

D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, AVEC UN OEIL DEVENANT PLUS LARGE ET ALLONGE.

CETTE VARIATION POURRAIT ETRE LA CONSEQUENCE D'UN RETOUR SUR DES EAUX

A MOINDRE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE D'APRES LES DONNEES MERCATOR.

LES PASSES SSMIS DE 0047Z ET 0120Z CONFIRMENT CETTE AFFAIBLISSEMENT

AVEC UN MUR OUVERT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.



CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD, SUITE A

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE SOIR AVEC LE

RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT

S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. EN FIN

D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER CEBILE,

L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE

DEGRADER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE

D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST VA SE METTRE EN PLACE AUJOURD'HUI ET SE RENFORCER

SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A

L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX

PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA PROXIMITE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE,

UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE L'OCEAN INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS

ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC

ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISAT

ION.=



2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 021218



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 75.8 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/07 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.5+ CI=5.0+



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE IS GOING ON WEAKENING PHASE WITH A

EYE BECOMING LARGER AND ALONGATED.

THIS CHANGE MAY BE THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE ARRIVAL OVER WATERS WITH

LESS ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL ACCORDING TO MERCATOR DATA AND ALSO THE

WRAPPINF DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE. 1057Z AMSU SWATH

CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING WITH A OPEN  EYEWALL IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.



CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, AFTER THE

WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY NEXT NIGHT, UNDER THE

INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY

TURN SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE

ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS

INDUCE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT  START DETERIORATING. A WEAK

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT IS SETTING UP PROGRESSIVELY TODAY

AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH A ROSSBY WAVE

BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO

DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH

AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE

VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=



2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 020633



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 75.5 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE

DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 82.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/07 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0 CI=5.5



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE UNDERWENT A NEW WEAKENING PHASE WITH

A EYE BECOMING LARGER AND ALONGATED.

THIS CHANGE MAY BE THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE TEMPORARILY PASSAGE OVER

WATERS WITH LESS ENERGETICAL POTENTIAL ACCORDING TO MERCATOR DATA.

0047Z AND 0120Z SSMIS SWATH CONFIRM THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH A OPEN

EYEWALL IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.



CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY TURN

SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL

OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS INDUCE A

MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT SHOULD START DETERIORATING IN THE

NEXT HOURS. A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT WILL SET UP

TODAY AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH A ROSSBY WAVE

BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO

DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH

AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE

VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=



2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO20 FMEE 021210

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  960 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 75.8 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 00 UTC:

18.2 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 12 UTC:

18.8 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-02 13:16

WTIO20 FMEE 020628

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 025/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  954 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 75.5 E

(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 18 UTC:

17.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 06 UTC:

18.5 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 020300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202015044

2018020200 07S CEBILE     025  01 200 05 SATL 015

T000 165S 0757E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD

    170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 171S 0757E 120 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD

    155 SW QD 135 NW QD

T024 178S 0763E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD

    145 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 185S 0774E 100 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD

    145 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 193S 0787E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD

    145 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 213S 0805E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD

    160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 234S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034

    190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD

T120 260S 0805E 040 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E



2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 020300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180202015044

2018020200 07S CEBILE     025  01 200 05 SATL 015

T000 165S 0757E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 171S 0757E 120 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD

T024 178S 0763E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 185S 0774E 100 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 193S 0787E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 213S 0805E 065 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 234S 0807E 050 R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD

T120 260S 0805E 040 R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 17.8S 76.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.5S 77.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 19.3S 78.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 21.3S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 23.4S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 26.0S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 75.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD

AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120

0718020200 165S 757E 120



2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 020300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-02-02 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 020300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   020000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 75.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 75.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.1S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 17.8S 76.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.5S 77.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 19.3S 78.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 21.3S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 23.4S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 26.0S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 75.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY

INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH THE PREVIOUS

RAGGED EYE BECOMING VERY CLEAR AND INCREASING IN SIZE TO 55 NM. THE

CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 020021Z GPM

36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE SIGNIFICANTLY

IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH AN INTENSE EYEWALL COMPLETELY

SURROUNDING THE CLEAR EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120

KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES

FROM OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW, AND A SATELLITE

CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 113 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM

REACHES LOCAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WHILE TRACKING  SOUTH-

SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  ENVIRONMENTAL

ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES

(28 DEG C) AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S HAS BEGUN ITS POLEWARD TURN AND

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG

THE WESTERN BOUNDARY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE

NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE

NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS

FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE

ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. BEYOND TAU 24

HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE

SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW COMBINED

WITH DECREASING SSTS. TC 07S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC

CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO

DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. THE

EUROPEAN MODELS AND CTCX REMAIN WESTERN OUTLIERS, WHILE THE

REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST, WITH HWRF BEING

THE EASTERN OUTLIER, 470NM EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE JTWC TRACK IS

PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND NEAR THE ECMWF

SOLUTION. IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST

TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//



2018-02-02 01:01

WTIO31 FMEE 020047



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 02/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 75.7 E

(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SEPT EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 952 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

60H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 07/02/2018 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=5.5+



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE PHASE

D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC LE RETOUR D'UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN IMAGERIE

IR. CETTE VARIATION POURRAIT ETRE LA CONSEQUENCE D'UN PASSAGE

TEMPORAIRE SUR DES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES D'APRES LES DONNEES MERCATOR. LA

PASSE SSMIS DE 2301Z CONFIRME CETTE AMELIORATION AVEC UN MUR A

NOUVEAU TRES BIEN DEFINI. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR UNE

MOYENNE DES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK. UNE BOUEE A ENVIRON 60KM DU

CENTRE A MESURE UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE 977HPA A 23Z.



CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD, SUITE A

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. CE SOIR AVEC LE

RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT

S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. EN FIN

D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER CEBILE,

L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE

DEGRADER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE

D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST VA SE METTRE EN PLACE AUJOURD'HUI ET SE RENFORCER

SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A

L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX

PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA PROXIMITE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE,

UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE L'OCEAN INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS

ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC

ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISAT

ION.=



2018-02-02 01:01

WTIO30 FMEE 020047



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/02 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 75.7 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/07 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.5+



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE UNDERWENT A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH

A CLEAR EYE PATTERN BACK IN IR IMAGERY. THIS CHANGE MAY BE THE

CONSEQUENCE OF THE TEMPORARILY PASSAGE OVER WARMER WATERS ACCORDING

TO MERCATOR DATA. 2301Z SSMIS SWATH CONFIRM THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH A

WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A MEAN OF THE

LAST DVORAK ESTIMATES. A BUOY LOCATED AROUND 60KM FROM THE CENTER

MEASURED A MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE OF 977HPA AT 23Z.



CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THIS EVENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY TURN

SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL

OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS INDUCE A

MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT SHOULD START DETERIORATING IN THE

NEXT HOURS. A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT WILL SET UP

TODAY AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH A ROSSBY WAVE

BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO

DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH

AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE

VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=



2018-02-02 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 020017

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 024/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 02/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  952 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 75.7 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 12 UTC:

17.6 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/03 AT 00 UTC:

18.1 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 012100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201195556

2018020118 07S CEBILE     024  01 215 04 SATL 040

T000 160S 0759E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 230 SE QD

    155 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 167S 0756E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD

    155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T024 174S 0759E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD

    150 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 180S 0768E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD

    145 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 187S 0782E 080 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD

    140 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 207S 0800E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 190 SE QD

    135 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 229S 0807E 050 R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034

    180 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD

T120 253S 0805E 045 R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   011800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 75.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM



2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 012100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201195556

2018020118 07S CEBILE     024  01 215 04 SATL 040

T000 160S 0759E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 230 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 167S 0756E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T024 174S 0759E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 180S 0768E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 187S 0782E 080 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 207S 0800E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 229S 0807E 050 R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD

T120 253S 0805E 045 R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   011800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 75.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 75.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 16.7S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.4S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.0S 76.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 18.7S 78.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 20.7S 80.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   051800Z --- 22.9S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   061800Z --- 25.3S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 75.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020106 155S 763E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 762E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020112 157S 761E 115

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110

0718020118 160S 759E 110



2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 012100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-02-01 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 012100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS

THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH MORE RAGGED. THE CURRENT POSITION

IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 1703 ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS

AND SUPPORTED BY THE ACCOMPANYING AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE

REPORTING AGENCIES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.8 (112 KNOTS). TC 07S HAS

WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY

SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

WITH LOW VWS (5-10 KNOTS), ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A

POINT SOURCE AT 200MB AND HIGH SST VALUES. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS

THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE

SOUTHWEST RECEDES TO THE WEST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-

EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE

COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE

ON STORM MOTION AND DRIVE TC 07S TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU

24 AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO THE NER. AFTER TAU

72 THE NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF TC 07S,

LEADING TO A DECREASE IN STORM MOTION AND A SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARDS

THE SOUTHWEST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE

STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF OCEAN

SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING. BEYOND TAU 12 HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM

WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES

INCREASING VWS AND EROSION OF OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT

SOURCE DISSIPATES AND IS REPLACED BY GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

PREVIOUS FORECASTS PREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY

AROUND TAU 120, HOWEVER NEW DATA INDICATES THAT THIS IS UNLIKELY.

NEAR TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE

OF A DEEP LAYER STR, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING IT OFF FROM THE MID-

LATITUDE TROUGHS AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, ALLOWING

TC 07S TO MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE

SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSITING OVER COOLER WATERS AT THIS POINT, WHICH

WILL LEAD TO A SLOW DISSIPATION OVER WATER VICE EXTRA-TROPICAL

TRANSITION (ETT). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER. ECMWF, THE ECMWF

ENSEMBLE AND CTCX ARE THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, SHOWING A STRONGER

INFLUENCE OF THE NER EXTENSION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,

WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST,

THOUGH THEY TOO AGREE ON THE GENERAL PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY TRACK BY

TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN

AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG

FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE

FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASED

SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN

THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT

012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z.//



2018-02-01 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 011825



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 75.9 E

(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES NEUF EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 430 NO: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 06/02/2018 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0- CI=5.5-



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CEBILE A ADOPTE LE PLUS SOUVENT UNE

STRUCTURE EN OEIL ALLONGE. CETTE DETERIOTATION DE LA CONFIGUTATION

NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME EST VRAISEMBLABLEMENT DU A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC

DANS LA CIRCULATION INTERNE. LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1335Z MONTRE UNE

FAIBLESSE DANS LA PARTIE NORD DU MUR. LE CISAILLEMENT EST A PRIORI

ENCORE FAIBLE SELON LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS.



CEBILE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST, SUITE

A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. DEMAIN SOIR AVEC LE

RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT

S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. EN FIN

D'ECHEANCE, L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD, EST PREVUE ATTIRER CEBILE,

L'ORIENTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER DANS

LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST VA SE

METTRE EN PLACE DEMAIN ET SE RENFORCER SENSIBLEMENT SAMEDI AVEC LE

DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. CEBILE DEVRAIT

ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR, SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAA CHES. LUNDI AVEC LA

PROXIMITE D'UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE, UNE TEMPERATURE DE SURFACE DE

L'OCEAN INFERIEURE A 26 DEGRES CELSIUS ET LA VENTILATION DU COEUR

CHAUD D'ALTITUDE AVEC L'AIR SEC ENVIRONMENTAL, CEBILE DEVRAIT ENTAMER

SA PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=



2018-02-01 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 011825



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 75.9 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL

NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 430 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/06 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0- CI=5.5-



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE STRUCTURE WAS MOST OF THE TIME AN

ELONGATED EYE. THIS DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD APTTERN IS APPARENTLY

THE CONSEQUENCE OF A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE INNER CORE. 1335Z SSMIS

SWATH SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHEN EYEWALL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS

ACCORDING TO CIMSS STILL LOW.



CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD, AFTER THE WEAKENING OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY THE END OF TOMMORROW, UNDER THE INFLUENCE

OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY TURN

SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING A LITTLE. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL

OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH IS LIKELY TO ATTRACT CEBILE AND THUS INDUCE A

MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT START DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT

HOURS. A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT WILL SET UP

TOMORROW AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ROSSBY

WAVE BREAKING, WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO

DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER COOLER SST. ON MONDAY, WITH

AN UPPER ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY, THE BELOW 26 DEGREES SST AND THE

VENTING OF THE UPPER WARM CORE BY DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR , CEBILE IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=



2018-02-01 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 011813

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 023/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  960 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 75.9 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN

QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 06 UTC:

17.1 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 18 UTC:

17.8 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-01 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 011500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-02-01 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 011500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT

05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED 18-NM EYE AND DEEP

CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WOBBLING MOTION IN THE EYE

FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 011108Z AMSU-B

PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO ERRATIC MOTION AND THE LIKELY TILTED

VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON

CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15

KNOT) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS.

ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY

TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO STEERING INFLUENCES: ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY

OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A

BUILDING NER TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS, THE NER IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE

SOUTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND

HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD,

AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE, TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY

TAU 120, CEBILE WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE

MID-LATITUDES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE

NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE

LEFT OUTLIER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT STORM

MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z, AND 021500Z.//



2018-02-01 14:16

WTXS51 PGTW 011500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201131740

2018020112 07S CEBILE     023  01 194 05 SATL 020

T000 159S 0761E 115 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD

    130 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 167S 0759E 115 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD

    160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T024 175S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD

    160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 180S 0765E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 187S 0777E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD

    155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 205S 0804E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    105 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD

    155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 233S 0818E 070 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD

    160 SW QD 110 NW QD

T120 261S 0823E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034

    170 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 105 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-02-01 14:01

WTXS51 PGTW 011500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201131740

2018020112 07S CEBILE     023  01 194 05 SATL 020

T000 159S 0761E 115 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 167S 0759E 115 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T024 175S 0760E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 180S 0765E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 187S 0777E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 205S 0804E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 233S 0818E 070 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD

T120 261S 0823E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 105 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   011200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 76.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 194 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 76.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.7S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.5S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.0S 76.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.7S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 20.5S 80.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 23.3S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 26.1S 82.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 76.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD

AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 011200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z,

AND 021500Z.//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020106 154S 762E 115

0718020106 154S 762E 115

0718020106 154S 762E 115

0718020109 156S 760E 115

0718020109 156S 760E 115

0718020109 156S 760E 115

0718020112 159S 761E 115

0718020112 159S 761E 115

0718020112 159S 761E 115



2018-02-01 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 011220



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 76.3 E

(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-SUD-OUEST 2 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 956 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

72H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 06/02/2018 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

EXTRATROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.5 CI=6.0-



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LORS DU RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE ET

EN LIEN AVEC L'INTRUSION POSSIBLE D'AIR SEC, LA CONVECTION A PRESENTE

DES FAIBLESSES. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES, LA CONVECTION

REPREND DE LA VIGUEUR AVEC UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF QUI SE RESTRUCTURE

PROGRESSIVEMENT MAIS DIFFICILEMENT.



APRES UNE COURTE PERIODE DE QUASI-STATIONNARITE, CEBILE REPREND SON

DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. CETTE ORIENTATION EST PLUS

PRECOCE QUE PREVUE, DECALANT LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST PAR RAPPORT AU

RESEAU PRECEDENT. LE SYSTEME EST DONC MAINTENANT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE

LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE QUI VA PROGRESSIVEMENT INDUIRE UNE

DIRECTION SUD-EST A CEBILE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE SERA SUIVIE D'UNE

ACCELERATION GRADUELLE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN.



LE CONTEXTE ATMOSPHERIQUE ET OCEANIQUE RESTE FAVORABLE A UN LEGER

REGAIN D'INTENSITE JUSQU'A DEMAIN MI-JOURNEE, TOUTEFOIS LIMITE PAR LA

PRESENCE D'AIR SEC QUI A DEJA AFFECTE LA CONVECTION. SAMEDI, LE

DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA

RAPIDEMENT ET CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE

VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE

UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT

DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, D'APRES LES DONNEES

DU MODELE OCEANIQUE PSY4 DE MERCATOR-OCEAN. CEBILE ENTAMERA EN FIN

D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT

DE L'ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE.=



2018-02-01 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 011220



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 76.3 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/06 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.5 CI=6.0-



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRESENT WEAKNESSES

IN CONNECTION WITH THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE AND THE POSSIBLE INTRUSION

OF DRY AIR. IN THE LATEST INFRARED DATA, CONVECTION STRENGTHENS WITH

A CONVICTVE RING THAT RESTRUCTURES PROGRESSIVELY, BUT DIFFICULTLY.



AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARITY, CEBILE MOVES

SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD. THIS ORIENTATION IS EARLIER THAN FORECASTED,

SHIFTING THE TRACK EAST TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED TRACK. THE SYSTEM

IS NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT WILL

PROGRESSIVELY INDUCE A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS ORIENTATION WILL BE

FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL ACCELERATION FROM TOMORROW.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO A SLIGHT

INTENSITY GAIN UNTIL TOMORROW MID-DAY, HOWEVER LIMITED BY THE

PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THAT HAS ALREADY AFFECTED CONVECTION. FROM

SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL

QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR.

CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK

OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURES. LASTLY, CEBILE MAY THEN BEGIN

ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH.=



2018-02-01 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 011205

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  956 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 76.3 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 150 MN IN THE EASTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 00 UTC:

16.3 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 12 UTC:

17.3 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-01 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 010900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201071219

2018020106 07S CEBILE     022  01 270 04 SATL 015

T000 154S 0762E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD

    160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 159S 0757E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 167S 0756E 110 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 173S 0760E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 180S 0769E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 199S 0797E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    100 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 223S 0811E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD

    160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 252S 0818E 060 R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034

    185 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-02-01 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 010900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   010600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 15.9S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-02-01 08:01

WTXS51 PGTW 010900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201071219

2018020106 07S CEBILE     022  01 270 04 SATL 015

T000 154S 0762E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 159S 0757E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 167S 0756E 110 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 173S 0760E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 180S 0769E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 199S 0797E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 223S 0811E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 252S 0818E 060 R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   010600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 15.9S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 16.7S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.3S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.0S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 19.9S 79.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 22.3S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 25.2S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z

IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020100 154S 766E 115

0718020106 154S 762E 115

0718020106 154S 762E 115

0718020106 154S 762E 115



2018-02-01 08:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   010600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 76.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 76.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 15.9S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 16.7S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.3S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.0S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 19.9S 79.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 22.3S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 25.2S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 23-NM EYE AND DEEP CENTRAL

CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 010433Z ASCAT BULLSEYE

PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON

CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER

LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND ROBUST

RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK

SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28C. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG

THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. IT IS NOW POISED TO

RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS AND ASSUMES

STEERING. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE

NEXT 12 HOURS AND HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, AS

VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DECREASE, TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY TAU

120, CEBILE WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS THE

MID-LATITUDES AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE

NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE SOLE

LEFT OUTLIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO, THERE

IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT

WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z,

020300Z AND 020900Z.//



2018-02-01 06:46

WTIO31 FMEE 010617



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 76.2 E

(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 2 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 952 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 190

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 06/02/2018 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

EXTRATROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=6.0-



APRES UNE PERIODE OU LA CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE, LES DERNIERES

IMAGES INFRAROUGE MONTRENT UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS L'ANNEAU

CONVECTIF. MALGRE CETTE FAIBLESSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LA

CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL PERMET UNE ANALYSE DVORAK LEGEREMENT A LA

HAUSSE.



LE RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE SE MAINTIENT SUR LES SIX DERNIERES

HEURES. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU

SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX

CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. EN COURS DE

JOURNEE, LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT

PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST

DEVENUE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE DEPUIS LES DERNIERS RESEAUX SUR LE VIRAGE

VERS LE SUD-EST QUE PRENDRA CEBILE, SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION

GRADUELLE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN.



CEBILE EVOLUE ENCORE DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU DU

CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE

OCEANIQUE. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST DONC ENCORE POSSIBLE

JUSQU'A DEMAIN MI-JOURNEE. CEPENDANT, L'AIR SEC QUI SEMBLE AFFECTER

ACTUELLEMENT LA CONVECTION POURRAIT LIMITER CE LEGER REGAIN. SAMEDI,

LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA

RAPIDEMENT ET CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE

VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAITRE

UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT

DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE

D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DE L'ANOMALIE

D'ALTITUDE.=



2018-02-01 06:46

WTIO30 FMEE 010617



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 76.2 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/06 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=6.0-



AFTER A PERIOD WHEN CONVECTION HAS REMAINED, THE LATEST INFRARED DATA

SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING CEBILE'S EYE.

DESPITE THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE CONTRACTION OF

THE EYE ALLOWS A DVORAK ANALYSIS SLIGHTLY UP.



THE SLOW MOTION OF CEBILE REMAINS ON THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM

IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC

STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS.  TODAY, THE NEAR

EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD THUS TAKE OVER CEBILE'S STEERING FLOW. THE

GUIDANCE DISPERSION BECAME RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LAST MODELS RUNS

ABOUT THE TURN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THAT CEBILE WILL TAKE, FOLLOWING

A GRADUAL ACCELERATION FROM TOMORROW.



CEBILE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND

SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A SLIGHT INTENSITY

GAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR THAT

SEEMS TO AFFECT CURRENTLY CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THIS SLIGHT

INTENSITY REGAIN. FROM SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST

OF THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY THEN

NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY

DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURES.

LASTLY, THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS

THE UPPER TROUGH.=



2018-02-01 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 010605

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 021/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  952 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 76.2 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 18 UTC:

16.2 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 06 UTC:

16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 010300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201013254

2018020100 07S CEBILE     021  01 270 03 SATL 020

T000 155S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD

    165 SW QD 145 NW QD

T012 158S 0760E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD

    165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T024 165S 0757E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD

    160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 172S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD

    155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 178S 0765E 100 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 193S 0789E 085 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 215S 0805E 070 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD

    160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 247S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034

    200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 010300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180201013254

2018020100 07S CEBILE     021  01 270 03 SATL 020

T000 155S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD

T012 158S 0760E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T024 165S 0757E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 172S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 178S 0765E 100 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 193S 0789E 085 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 215S 0805E 070 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 247S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.5S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.2S 75.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 17.8S 76.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 19.3S 78.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 21.5S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718020100 155S 767E 115

0718020100 155S 767E 115

0718020100 155S 767E 115



2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-02-01 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   010000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 76.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 76.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 15.8S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.5S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.2S 75.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 17.8S 76.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 19.3S 78.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 21.5S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 24.7S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT, HIGH-CONFIDENCE POSITION IS

SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY

OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED

AND DEEPENING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR 25 NM EYE, EVIDENT IN

RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, REFLECTS A RENEWED

INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S IS TRACKING

SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING AND WEAKENING

SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVER THE

NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE

SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON

STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE

PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO

THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE

NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY

EASTWARD AND POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW, NEAR-

EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TC 07S TRACKS OVER VERY WARM WATER AND THE

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE. SUBSEQUENTLY,

SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT

LESS CONDUCIVE AND THE OCEAN SURFACE POTENTIALLY COOLS A BIT DUE TO

UPWELLING INDUCED BY THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND

WILL ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48 AS TC 07S MOVES OVER COOLER WATER, AND

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM

INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS RELATIVELY SMALL

SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE

TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, SPREAD

INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT VARYING IMPACTS

OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN, LENDING LOW

CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.//



2018-02-01 00:46

WTIO31 FMEE 010020



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/02/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 76.5 E

(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 2 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 410 NO: 200

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 270 SO: 190 NO: 180

48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 120

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 06/02/2018 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=5.5



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST RENFORCEE DANS

LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST BIEN QUE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION QUI ENTOURE

L'OEIL RESTE PLUS ETROIT DANS CE DEMI-CERCLE. L'OEIL S'EST EGALEMENT

CONTRACTE LEGEREMENT, PERMETTANT UNE REMONTEE DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK

DU CMRS. LA PASSE MICROONDES AMSR2 DE 2007Z REVELE QUE L'ANNEAU DE

CONVECTION PRESENTE DESORMAIS QUELQUES FAIBLESSES PAR ENDROIT MAIS LA

STRUCTURE INTERNE DE CEBILE RESTE CEPENDANT SOLIDE.



CEBILE A NETTEMENT RALENTI VOIRE MEME STATIONNE SUR LES DEUX

DERNIERES HEURES. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE

AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX

CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. EN COURS DE

JOUNEE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE DECALAGE VERS L'OUEST DE LA

DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT

PROGRESSIVEMENT PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR, IMPOSANT UN

FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA

DISPERSION DES MODELES EST DEVENUE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE DANS LE

DERNIER RESEAU. APRES LE VIRAGE, L'INCERTITUDE PRINCIPALE CONCERNE LA

VITESSE DE CEBILE. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PRINCIPALEMENT

BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET DE GFS.



CEBILE EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU

DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU

ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST DONC ENCORE

POSSIBLE JUSQU'A DEMAIN SOIR, A MOINS QUE L'AIR SEC N'AFFECTE TROP LA

CONVECTION OU QUE LES EAUX SOUS-JASCENTES SOIENT TROP REFROIDIES PAR

UN STATIONNEMENT PLUS LONG QUE PREVU. VENDREDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT

DANS LE QUADRANT NORD ET UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST COMMENCE A

SE METTRE EN PLACE EN ALTITUDE EN SOIREE. SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT

D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET

CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE

SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAA TRE UNE

BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT DE

PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE

D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DE L'ANOMALIE

D'ALTITUDE MATA RIALISANT L'ONDE DE ROSSBY.=



2018-02-01 00:46

WTIO30 FMEE 010020



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.5 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 410 NW: 200

34 KT NE: 200 SE: 270 SW: 190 NW: 180

48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 120

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.5



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION STRENGTHENED IN THE WESTERN

SEMI-CIRCLE EVEN IF THE CONVECTION RING SURROUNDING CEBILE'S EYE

REMAINS NARROWER THERE. THE EYE ALSO TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING THE

RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES TO INCREASE. MW IMAGES FROM THE AMSR2 2007Z

SWATH REVEALS A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE CONVECTION RING NOW BUT THE

CORE STRUCTURE OF CEBILE STILL REMAINS SOLID.



CEBILE CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN, AND EVEN STOPPED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST

AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC

STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. TODAY, THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE WESTWARD. THE NEAR

EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD THUS TAKE OVER CEBILE'S STEERING FLOW. THIS

CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL

ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION BECAME RELATIVELY LOW IN THE

LAST MODELS RUNS. AFTER THE TURN, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE

CYCLONE'S SPEED. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON A

CONSENSUS OF RECENT IFS AND GFS GUIDANCE.



CEBILE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND

SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A SLIGHT INTENSITY

GAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE, UNLESS THE CONVECTION BECOMES

TOO AFFECTED BY DRY AIR ON CONVECTION OR THE UNDERLYING WATERS COOLED

BY A LONGER STOP THAN EXPECTED. FROM FRIDAY, EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT

BEGINS TO APPEAR IN THE EVENING. FROM SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE

BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE

WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS

FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK OVER COOLER SURFACE

SEA TEMPERATURES. LASTLY, THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS

EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MATERIALIZING THE

ROSSBY WAVE IS COMING CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM'S CORE.=



2018-02-01 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 010011

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 01/02/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  955 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.5 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 175 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM

IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 12 UTC:

15.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/02 AT 00 UTC:

16.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 312100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131200702

2018013118 07S CEBILE     020  01 290 03 SATL 020

T000 155S 0770E 110 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 156S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD

    170 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD

    165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 167S 0755E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD

    160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 175S 0760E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 191S 0783E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 212S 0802E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD

    145 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 240S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034

    190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 312100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131200702

2018013118 07S CEBILE     020  01 290 03 SATL 020

T000 155S 0770E 110 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 156S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 167S 0755E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 175S 0760E 100 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 191S 0783E 090 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 212S 0802E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 240S 0815E 060 R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.0S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 16.7S 75.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.5S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 19.1S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 21.2S 80.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   051800Z --- 24.0S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110

0718013118 155S 770E 110



2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 312100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-31 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 312100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   311800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 77.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 77.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 15.6S 76.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.0S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 16.7S 75.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.5S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 19.1S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 21.2S 80.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   051800Z --- 24.0S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 76.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED

ON A RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS

IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES

FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS RECENT AUTOMATED

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 07S HAS WEAKENED VERY SLIGHTLY

WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A

SHIFTING AND WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING NEAR-

EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL EXERT AN INCREASING

INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN

POLEWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES FROM THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE

EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO

TRACK STEADILY POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEW STEERING

RIDGE. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND

PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF

POTENTIAL OCEAN SURFACE COOLING DUE TO UPWELLING BY THE SLOW MOVING

SYSTEM, ENABLING TC 07S TO APPROXIMATELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE

NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS TC

07S PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WHILE BEGIN BY TAU 120 AS TC

07S INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM

THE SOUTHWEST. CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS

RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD AMONG FORECAST MODELS THROUGH TAU 72,

LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.

HOWEVER, SPREAD INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE MODELS DEPICT

VARYING IMPACTS OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ON THE STEERING PATTERN,

LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//



2018-01-31 18:31

WTIO31 FMEE 311820



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 76.8 E

(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES HUIT EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 410 NO: 200

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 05/02/2018 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=4.5+;CI=5.0



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE L'OEIL S'EST

DETERIORE SUR LES IMAGES IR. ALORS QUE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE RESTE

IMPRESSIONNANTE, L'EXPLICATION LA PLUS PROBABLE DE CETTE DEGRADATION

TEMPORAIRE RESTE L'INFLUENCE DE L'AIR SEC TOUJOURS BIEN PRESENT A

PROXIMITE OUEST DE CEBILE. CEPENDANT, SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES

IMAGES, LA CONVECTION A BIEN REPRIS.

L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS EST TOUJOURS LIMITEE PAR LA GRANDE TAILLE

DE L'OEIL.



CEBILE MAINTIENT UN CAP TOUJOURS ORIENTE GLOBALEMENT A L'OUEST, AVEC

UNE LEGERE TENDANCE OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE

DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU

NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS

OPPOSES MAIS C'EST L'INFLUENCE SUBTROPICALE QUI DOMINE POUR LE

MOMENT. MAIS DEMAIN, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET LE DECALAGE VERS

L'OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE

DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR,

IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION

GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE ASSEZ CONSEQUENTE AVEC

TOUJOURS UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE CEBILE AU COURS DE LA

NUIT. APRES LE VIRAGE, L'INCERTITUDE PRINCIPALE CONCERNE LA VITESSE

DE CEBILE. LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN

CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET DE GFS.



CEBILE EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU

DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU

ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST DONC ENCORE

POSSIBLE JUSQU'A DEMAIN SOIR. VENDREDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE

QUADRANT NORD ET UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST COMMENCE A SE

METTRE EN PLACE EN ALTITUDE. SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE

ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET

CONSIDERABLEMENT RENFORCER LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE

SECTEUR OUEST PUIS NORD-OUEST. CEBILE DEVRAIT ALORS CONNAA TRE UNE

BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES EAUX DEVIENNENT DE

PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE

D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DE L'ANOMALIE

D'ALTITUDE MATA RIALISANT L'ONDE DE ROSSBY.=



2018-01-31 18:31

WTIO30 FMEE 311820



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.8 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 410 NW: 200

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/05 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.5+;CI=5.0



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF CEBILE'S EYE HAS

DETERIORATED ON THE IR IMAGES. AS THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS

IMPRESSIVE, THE MOST PROBABLE CAUSE OF THIS TEMPORARY DEGRADATION

REMAINS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR STILL LOCATED

CLOSE TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, ON THE VERY LAST SAT

IMAGES, CONVECTION STRENGTHENED AGAIN.

THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES IS STILL LIMITED BY THE LARGE EYE SIZE.



CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, WITH A SLIGHT

WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TENDENCY. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN

THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE

STEERING FLOWS BUT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS CURRENTLY CLEARLY THE

STRONGEST. HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED

TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE WESTWARD. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD THUS

TAKE OVER CEBILE'S STEERING FLOW. THIS CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A SHARP

SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE

DISPERSION REMAINS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE

EXACT DIRECTION OF THE TRACK OF CEBILE OVER THE NIGHT. AFTER THE

TURN, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS THE CYCLONE'S SPEED. THE CURRENT

TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF RECENT IFS AND GFS

GUIDANCE.



CEBILE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND

SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A SLIGHT INTENSITY

GAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. FROM FRIDAY, EQUATORWARD UPPER

LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR

CONSTRAINT BEGINS TO APPEAR. FROM SATURDAY, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING

LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLY THEN

NORTHWESTWERLY WINDSHEAR. CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY

DROP, AS IT WILL ALSO TRACK OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURES.

LASTLY, THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE AS

THE UPPER TROUGH MATERIALIZING THE ROSSBY WAVE IS COMING CLOSER TO

THE SYSTEM'S CORE.=



2018-01-31 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 311813

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  962 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.8 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 250NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 06 UTC:

15.6 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 18 UTC:

16.2 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS51 PGTW 311500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131141035

2018013112 07S CEBILE     019  01 305 04 SATL 030

T000 156S 0773E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD

    160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T012 156S 0766E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD

    170 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0759E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD

    175 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 166S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD

    165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 174S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 186S 0772E 095 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD

    150 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 208S 0796E 080 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 238S 0811E 060 R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034

    205 NE QD 210 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:



2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS51 PGTW 311500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131141035

2018013112 07S CEBILE     019  01 305 04 SATL 030

T000 156S 0773E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T012 156S 0766E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0759E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 166S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 174S 0756E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 186S 0772E 095 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 208S 0796E 080 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 238S 0811E 060 R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115

0718013112 156S 773E 115



2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS31 PGTW 311500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-31 15:16

WTXS31 PGTW 311500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR EYE FEATURE, A VERY

SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE

FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP

CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER

AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE EYE

FEATURE HAS GRADUALLY CONTRACTED FROM 30 NM TO 25 NM OVER THE PAST

6 HOURS. A 310935Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE

DIAMETER AND INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AND

AUTOMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 108 KNOTS.  TC

07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH

LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT

INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN

UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE

SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO THE

NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED

ABOVE. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY

MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S

REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE

(NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE

SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE

PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36,

THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE

APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR

ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE

SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24,

VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS

THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.

BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS

COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MODEL

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE

RECURVE, WITH A 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED

NEAR TO BUT JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE

REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING

TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//



2018-01-31 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 311247



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 77.3 E

(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 4 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 390 NO: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 05/02/2018 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=5.0



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE

CEBILE N'A PAS EVOLUEE. LA CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL OBSERVE EN FIN DE

NUIT SEMBLE S'ETRE INTERROMPU. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS EST DONC

TOUJOURS LIMITE PAR LA TAILLE DE L'OEIL.



CEBILE MAITIENT UN CAP TOUJOURS ORIENTE GLOBALEMENT A L'OUEST. LE

SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA

DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION

PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. MAIS DEMAIN, AVEC

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA PREMIERE, LA SECONDE DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT

REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE

VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES

MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE

CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS

SEMBLENT COMMENCER A CONVERGER VERS UNE SOLUTION INTERMEDIAIRE. LA

PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DES

DERNIERS RUNS D'IFS ET DE GFS.



JUSQU'A DEMAIN, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-PARFAIT

AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU

ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. UNE INTENSIFIACTION EST DONC ENCORE POSSIBLE

CETTE NUIT. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE

QUADRANT NORD MAIS CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN

RENFORCEMENT DU CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. UN RALENTISSEMENT DE

CEBILE TROP IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT

EGALEMENT FAIRE DIMINUER SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR

REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES.  DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A

SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU

SYSTEME, VA RAPIDEMENT ET CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT

VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE

BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX

DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES. IL ENTAMERA EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE PHASE

D'EXTRA-TROPICALISATION.=



2018-01-31 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 311247



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 77.3 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.0



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE. THE

EYE CONTRACTION OBSERVED IN THE EARLY MORNING, STOPPED APPARENTLY.

THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS THUS STILL LIMITED BY THE EYE SIZE.



CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT

BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL

RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING

OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, THE FIRST ONE IS

EXPECTED TO DECAY, MAKING THE MAIN STEERING FLOW PROGRESSIVELY DRIVEN

BY THE SECOND ONE. THIS CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD

TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION

REMAINS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT TRACK OF

THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT HOURS. DIFFERENT SCENARIOS SEEMS TO START

CONVERGING TOWARDS AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. THE CURRENT TRACK

FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF RECENT IFS AND GFS

GUIDANCE.



UNTIL TOMORROW, CEBILE SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS

CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. AN

INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. FROM THURSDAY

EVENING, EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT

THIS DECREASE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLARWARD CHANNEL

OUTFLOW. MOREOVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT

SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD, THE SELF-INDUCED SST COOLING COULD

SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A

ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY

THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS

FORECAST TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA

TEMPERATURE. AT LAST THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS

EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE.=



2018-01-31 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 311213

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 018/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  962 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 77.3 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP

TO 250NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 00 UTC:

15.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 12 UTC:

16.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-31 09:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-31 09:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.0S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.5S 75.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.2S 75.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.5S 76.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 20.6S 79.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 23.4S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 77.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE, A VERY SHARP

EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE FROM THE

UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM

CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED

TO A MUCH BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN

SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE EYE SIZE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ABOUT 30NM OVER

THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 310356Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE

EYE DIAMETER AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION SEEN IN

MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115

KNOTS BASED ON A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115

KNOTS) THAT IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH

A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE

OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL

FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS

LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL

OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO A NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE

SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE

OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM

RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA

BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY

WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO

TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE

COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR

TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO

TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF

THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND

OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE

POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL

ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SMOOTH BUT TIGHTER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST

THAN SHOWN IN EARLIER RUNS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR TO BUT

JUST SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY

HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z,

010300Z AND 010900Z.//



2018-01-31 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 310900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131084042

2018013106 07S CEBILE     018  01 280 07 SATL 040

T000 158S 0776E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 157S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD

    180 SW QD 125 NW QD

T024 160S 0760E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD

    175 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 165S 0755E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD

    175 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 172S 0755E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD

    170 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 185S 0767E 095 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD

    160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 206S 0792E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD

    155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 234S 0807E 060 R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034

    200 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:



2018-01-31 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 310900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131084042

2018013106 07S CEBILE     018  01 280 07 SATL 040

T000 158S 0776E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 157S 0767E 115 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD

T024 160S 0760E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 165S 0755E 110 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 172S 0755E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 185S 0767E 095 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 206S 0792E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 234S 0807E 060 R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 018

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   310600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 77.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 77.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 15.7S 76.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.0S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.5S 75.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.2S 75.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.5S 76.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 20.6S 79.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 23.4S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 77.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013100 159S 783E 120

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115

0718013106 158S 776E 115



2018-01-31 07:16

WTIO31 FMEE 310630



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 77.6 E

(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 6 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 390 NO: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE

120H: 05/02/2018 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0- CI=5.0



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE

CEBILE N'A PAS FONDAMENTALEMENT EVOLUEE. UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT

TEMPORAIRE S'EST PRODUIT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE L'OEIL. MAIS LES

DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES N'ONT PAS MONTRE DE FAIBLESSE

PARTICULIRERE. L'OEIL A CONTINUE DE SE CONTRACTER LEGEREMENT MAIS

RESTE TOUJOURS DE GRANDE TAILLE CE QUI LIMITE L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU

CMRS.



CEBILE A UN PEU ACCELERE EN FIN DE NUIT AVEC UN CAP TOUJOURS ORIENTE

GLOBALEMENT A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE

SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU

NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS

OPPOSES. LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT CONSERVER UN LEGER AVANTAGE

POUR LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES. MAIS DEMAIN, ELLE FAIBLIT ET LA DORSALE

PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT REPRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR

PROGRESSIVEMENT, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE

ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE

AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE CEBILE AU COURS DES

PROCHAINS JOURS. LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS SEMBLENT COMMENCER A

CONVERGER VERS UNE SOLUTION INTERMEDIAIRE. LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE

EST BASEE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DE IFS ET GFS.



JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE

QUASI-PARFAIT AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE

ET DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE. AVEC LA CONTRACTION ACTUELLE DE

L'OEIL, UNE INTENSIFICATION EST TOUJOURS ATTENDUE POUR LES PROCHAINES

HEURES. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE QUADRANT

NORD MAIS CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN RENFORCEMENT DU

CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. CEPENDANT, UN RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE

TROP IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT FAIRE

DIMINUER SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX

SOUS-JACENTES.  DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT

D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET

CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE

NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE

ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES.

=



2018-01-31 07:16

WTIO30 FMEE 310630



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 77.6 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN

DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2018/02/05 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0- CI=5.0



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE A LOT.

A SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BUT LAST

MICROWAVE DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY WEAKNESS. THE EYE KEEP ON CONTRACTING

SLOWLY BUT IS STILL WIDE LIMITING THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES.



CEBILE ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY MORNING, STILL TRACKING

MAINLY WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN

THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE

TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. THE

SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER AT SHORT RANGE.

HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL

RIDGE BECOMING THE MAIN STEERING FLOW PROGRESSIVELY. THIS DRIVES A

SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE

GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAYS. DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

SEEMS TO START CONVERGING TOWARD AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. THE

CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON AN IFS AND GFS CONSENSUS.



UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT

CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT. WITH THE CURRENT CONTRACTION OF THE EYE, A INTENSIFICATION

IS STILL FORECAST AT SHORT RANGE. FROM THURSDAY, EQUATORWARD UPPER

LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT THIS DECREASE SHOULD BE

OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLARWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, IF THE

MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD,

THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S

INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST

OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS

IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA TEMPERATURE.=



2018-01-31 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 310619

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  962 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 77.6 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.



HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 18 UTC:

15.7 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 06 UTC:

15.9 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS51 PGTW 310300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131014444

2018013100 07S CEBILE     017  01 260 07 SATL 010

T000 160S 0781E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD

    150 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 160S 0769E 125 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD

    155 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 161S 0761E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD

    165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 165S 0756E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD

    170 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 172S 0752E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD

    165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 185S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 206S 0783E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 239S 0807E 070 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 215 SE QD

    160 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS51 PGTW 310300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180131014444

2018013100 07S CEBILE     017  01 260 07 SATL 010

T000 160S 0781E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 160S 0769E 125 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 161S 0761E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 165S 0756E 130 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 172S 0752E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 185S 0758E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 206S 0783E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 239S 0807E 070 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 215 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013100 160S 781E 120

0718013100 160S 781E 120

0718013100 160S 781E 120



2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-31 02:46

WTXS31 PGTW 310300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 017

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   310000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 78.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 78.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.0S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.1S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 16.5S 75.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 17.2S 75.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.5S 75.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 20.6S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 23.9S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 77.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE FEATURE

WITH A VERY SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS

SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A

NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COMPARED TO A MUCH

BROADER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE.

CONTINUING THE TREND NOTICED IN THE EARLIER WARNING, THE EYE HAS

BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MEASURED AT 31NM.

A 310031Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SOLID RING OF

IMPRESSIVE AND INTENSE CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC

AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND

T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, HEDGED SLIGHTLY

DOWNWARD IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.9

(112 KNOTS). TC 07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING

FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS

LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST

RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO SOME PRESSURE ON THE

SOUTHEASTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED EARLIER. AT THE MOMENT, THIS

PRESSURE IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY MOTION, LEADING

TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S REMAINS TRAPPED IN

THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY

WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO

TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE

COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36, THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR

TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO

TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF

THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT

24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AS THERE ARE NO

HINDRANCES TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, VWS BEGINS TO

INCREASE AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS THE FLOW PATTERN LEADS A

SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL

ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER

AGREEMENT WITH A TURN A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE EGRR AND

AFUM MODELS ARE THE ONLY REMAINING EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK

IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE CONCENTRATION

OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL

TRACK, THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK

GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK

FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 34 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//



2018-01-31 00:31

WTIO31 FMEE 310022



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 78.4 E

(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :59 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 390 NO: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

72H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 05/02/2018 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=5.0



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE

CEBILE EST RESTEE BIEN STABLE AVEC DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK QUI ONT PEU

FLUCTUEES. TOUTEFOIS L'OEIL A COMMENCE A LEGEREMENT SE CONTRACTER CE

QUI POURRAIT SIGNIFIER UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME

QUI BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES.



LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE

UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE

EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX

DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT

DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE

AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN

COURS DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE

CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE

LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR VENDREDI, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS

LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES

MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE

CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ENTRE LE DEPLACEMENT NORD-OUEST

PROPOSE PAR IFS ET LA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST DU GFS. CEPENDANT, LE

TIMING DU VIRAGE FAIT L'OBJET D'UN BON ACCORD.



JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE

QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET

DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. A

PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD MAIS

CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN RENFORCEMENT DU CANAL

D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. CEPENDANT, UN RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE TROP

IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER

SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX

SOUS-JASCENTES.  DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT

D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET

CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE

NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE

ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES.

=



2018-01-31 00:31

WTIO30 FMEE 310022



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.4 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :59 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.0



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY

STABLE. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAS NOT MUCH FLUCTUATED. NEVERTHELESS

CEBILE'S EYE HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK THAT COULD INDICATE A RESUMPTION OF

INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE VERY GOOD ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS.



CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN

THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE

STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK

OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS

SLIGHTLY STRONGER. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS

WEAKENING BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING

FLOW FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A

GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF

THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT COURSE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT

DAYS, BETWEEN A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A

SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FOR GFS. HOWEVER, THE AGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING

OF THE TURN IS GOOD.



UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT

CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN INCREASING WEST OF 80E. FROM THURSDAY,

EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT THIS

DECREASE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLERWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW.

HOWEVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT SHOULD CURVE

SOUTHEASTWARD, THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD SIGNIFICANTLY

DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A ROSSBY WAVE

BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THE

NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECASTED

TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA

TEMPERATURE.=



2018-01-31 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 310015

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 016/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 31/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  960 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.4 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP

TO 220 MN WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 12 UTC:

15.8 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/02/01 AT 00 UTC:

16.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 302100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130194600

2018013018 07S CEBILE     016  01 280 05 SATL 015

T000 159S 0788E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD

    140 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 158S 0780E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD

    150 SW QD 105 NW QD

T024 158S 0771E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 110 NW QD

T036 161S 0764E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD

    165 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 167S 0760E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD

    165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 178S 0759E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 193S 0777E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD

    155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 221S 0805E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    100 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 210 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 302100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130194600

2018013018 07S CEBILE     016  01 280 05 SATL 015

T000 159S 0788E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 158S 0780E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD

T024 158S 0771E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD

T036 161S 0764E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 167S 0760E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 178S 0759E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 193S 0777E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 221S 0805E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 15.8S 77.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.1S 76.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.7S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.8S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 19.3S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 22.1S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 78.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110

0718013018 159S 788E 110



2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 302100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-30 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 302100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 016

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   301800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 15.8S 78.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 15.8S 77.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.1S 76.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.7S 76.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.8S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 19.3S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 22.1S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 78.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A MASSIVE EYE NEARLY 60NM

ACROSS AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING INTO A STRONG

CONVECTIVE CORE. IT HAD BEEN EXPECTED THAT THE EYE DIAMETER WOULD

HAVE DECREASED AFTER COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

(ERC) YESTERDAY BUT THE EYE HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY WIDE. HOWEVER,

THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME INDICATIONS THAT

THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AGAIN. A 301647Z 89GHZ AMSU-B

MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO

REMAIN IN PLACE, COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE

HIGH CONFIDENCE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110

KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0

(115 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN

LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.6 (102

KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR

SUSTAINMENT AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH

LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATELY HIGH OHC VALUES

ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ROBUST BOTH

EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DUE TO A POINT SOURCE JUST TO THE

SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S LIES IN A COL AREA TRAPPED BETWEEN

A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENTIRE RIDGE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY

WESTWARD RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S THROUGH THE NEXT

36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH

WILL ERODE THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING TC 07S

TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD. BEYOND TAU 72, THE NER REORIENTS TO A

NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT

STEERING FACTOR, LEADING TC 07S TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND

ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 07S

TRANSITS THROUGH THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS

BY TAU 24. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY NEAR

115 KNOTS WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ERC.

AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 72, IT WILL UNDERGO MORE

RAPID WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES COOLER WATERS, VWS INCREASES AND

OUTFLOW SHIFTS TO A SINGLE CHANNEL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BUT THERE REMAINS

RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN.

JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD ADVANCE OVER THE

NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING THE TURN SOUTHEAST AND ARE THE

EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS. THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A QUICKER FORWARD

SPEED THROUGH TAU 48, LEADING TO A TURN FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE

JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH

LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE

GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 30 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//



2018-01-30 18:16

WTIO31 FMEE 301811



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E

(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 4 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 310 SO: 310 NO: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

72H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 04/02/2018 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0 CI=5.5-



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES LA CONFIGATION EN OEIL LARGE DE

CEBILE EST RESTEE BIEN STABLE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE WINDSAT 37GHZ DE

1318Z MONTRE UN IMPRESSIONANT ANNEAU ROSE DE CONVECTION TRES INTENSE

AUTOUR DE L'OEIL. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK CONNAIT UNE LEGERE BAISSE

DEPUIS 1200Z. L'INTENSITE DE CEBILE RESTE ESTIMA E AUTOUR DU STADE

MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL (85KT), ESTIMATION EN ACCORD AVEC

L'ESTIMATION SATCON DE 1254Z.



LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE

UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE

EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX

DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT

DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE

AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN

COURS DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE

CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE

LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR VENDREDI, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS

LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES

MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE

CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ENTRE LE DEPLACEMENT NORD-OUEST

PROPOSE PAR IFS ET LA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST DU GFS. CEPENDANT, LE

TIMING DU VIRAGE FAIT L'OBJET D'UN BON ACCORD.



JUSQU'A MERCREDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE

QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET

DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. A

PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DIVERGENCE FAIBLIT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD MAIS

CETTE BAISSE DEVRAIT A TRE COMPENSEE PAR UN RENFORCEMENT DU CANAL

D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. CEPENDANT, UN RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE TROP

IMPORTANT LORS DE SON VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER

SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX

SOUS-JASCENTES.  DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, LE DEFERLEMENT

D'UNE ONDE DE ROSSBY A L'OUEST IMMEDIAT DU SYSTEME VA RAPIDEMENT ET

CONSIDERABLEMENT ACCROITRE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE

NORD-OUEST ET CEBILE DEVRAIT CONNAA TRE UNE BAISSE RAPIDE D'INTENSITE

ALORS QU'IL EVOLUERA SUR DES EAUX DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAA CHES=



2018-01-30 18:16

WTIO30 FMEE 301811



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 310 SW: 310 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/04 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0 CI=5.5-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED VERY

STABLE. 1318Z 37GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE

PINK RING OF INTENSE CONVECTION. SINCE 1200Z, THE DVORAK ESTIMATES

HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. CEBILE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AROUND THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMAL STAGE (85KT) ACCORDING WITH THE 1254Z SATCON

ASSESSMENT.



CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN

THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE

STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK

OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS

SLIGHTLY STRONGER. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS

WEAKENING BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING

FLOW FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A

GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF

THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT COURSE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT

DAYS, BETWEEN A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A

SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FOR GFS. HOWEVER, THE AGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING

OF THE TURN IS GOOD.



UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT

CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN INCREASING WEST OF 80E. FROM THURSDAY,

EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT THIS

DECREASE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLERWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW.

HOWEVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT SHOULD CURVE

SOUTHEASTWARD, THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD SIGNIFICANTLY

DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A ROSSBY WAVE

BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THE

NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS FORECASTED

TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA

TEMPERATURE.=



2018-01-30 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 301805

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  958 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 06 UTC:

15.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 18 UTC:

16.0 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-30 15:01

WTXS51 PGTW 301500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130140101

2018013012 07S CEBILE     015  01 270 05 SATL 040

T000 160S 0793E 100 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD

    150 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 159S 0784E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD

    155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T024 160S 0776E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD

    165 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 162S 0769E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD

    170 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 166S 0763E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD

    175 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 179S 0761E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD

    165 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 192S 0777E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T120 213S 0801E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    120 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD

    160 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-30 15:01

WTXS51 PGTW 301500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130140101

2018013012 07S CEBILE     015  01 270 05 SATL 040

T000 160S 0793E 100 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 159S 0784E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T024 160S 0776E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 162S 0769E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 166S 0763E 105 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 115 NW QD

T072 179S 0761E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 192S 0777E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T120 213S 0801E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   301200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 15.9S 78.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.0S 77.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.2S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 16.6S 76.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.9S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 19.2S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 21.3S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100

0718013012 160S 793E 100



2018-01-30 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 301500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   301200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 15.9S 78.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-30 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 301500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 015

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   301200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 15.9S 78.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.0S 77.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.2S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 16.6S 76.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 17.9S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 19.2S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 21.3S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS

A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 60NM EYE FEATURE AND RADIAL BANDING

CONVERGING INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. A 301035Z 91GHZ SSMIS

IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE

EYE FEATURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED

ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER COMPLETION OF

A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE STEADILY INCREASING TO T5.5/5.5 (102 KNOTS) FORMING

THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO

105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW

WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE

REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC

07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER A COMPETING STEERING

ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH THE NORTHEAST AND

SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING WESTWARD, AND

THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A RESULTANT WESTWARD TRACK

FOR TC 07S, CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES. BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE

TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE

DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING STEERING AND SHIFTING THE

TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 07S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE NEW

SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER SSTS. THERE IS HIGH

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT COMPETING

STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL

AGREEMENT ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW A MUCH SLOWER

WESTWARD ADVANCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING THE TURN

SOUTHEAST.  THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD

DISPLACEMENT BEFORE MAKING THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS

PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE

COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND

311500Z.//



2018-01-30 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 301219



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 79.0 E

(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 190

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

72H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 04/02/2018 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=5.5-



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL LARGE DE

CEBILE A PEU EVOLUE. LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX A FLUCTUE,

MAIS L'ESTIMATION DVORAK RESTE QUASI-CONSTANTE AUTOUR DU STADE

MAXIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL (85KT). LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1035Z CONFIRME

LA SOLIDITE DE LA STRUCTURE ANNULAIRE DE CEBILE. A PART DE L'AIR SEC

QUI S'ENROULE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION,

L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE AU MAINTIEN VOIRE MEME A UNE LEGERE

AUGMENTATION DE L'INTENSITE.



LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PRIS ENTRE

UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE

EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX

DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT

DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE

AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN

COURS DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE

CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE

LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR VENDREDI, IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS

LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LA DISPERSION DES

MODELES RESTE CONSEQUENTE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE CAP EXACT DE

CEBILE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ENTRE LE DEPLACEMENT NORD-OUEST

PROPOSE PAR IFS ET LA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST DU GFS. CEPENDANT, LE

TIMING DU VIRAGE FAIT L'OBJET D'UN BON ACCORD.



JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE

QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET

DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. TANT

QU'IL RESTE AU NORD DE 20S, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AINSI TROUVER ASSEZ

D'ENERGIE DANS L'OCEAN POUR EMPECHER L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT DE

PENETRER SON COEUR. CEPENDANT, SI CEBILE RALENTIT PLUS QUE PREVU, LE

REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JASCENTES POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER

SENSIBLEMENT SON INTENSITE. EN COHERENCE AVEC LA VITESSE DE LA

PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE, LE SYSTEME A TOUTES LES CHANCES DE

SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

(MODULO LES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A D'AUTRES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT). A

PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LES CONDITIONS DEVIENNENT MOINS FAVORABLES AVEC

LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIE A  L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG

D'ALTITUDE.=



2018-01-30 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 301219



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 79.0 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.5-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH. THE

CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATED A LITTLE, BUT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES

REMAINED STABLE AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAXIMAL STAGE (85KT).

SSMIS 1035Z SWATH CONFIRMS THE SOLIDITY OF THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE OF

CEBILE. APART DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE

ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AND SUGGEST A STABLE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY

INCREASING INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOURS.



CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN

THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE

STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK

OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS

SLIGHTLY STRONGER. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS

WEAKENING BEFORE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING

FLOW FRIDAY. THIS DRIVES A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A

GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH BECAUSE OF

THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT COURSE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT

DAYS, BETWEEN A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY IFS AND A

SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION FOR GFS. HOWEVER, THE AGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING

OF THE TURN IS GOOD.



UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT

CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN INCREASING WEST OF 80E. AS LONG AS IT TRACKS

NORTH OF 20S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND ENOUGH ENERGY IN THE OCEAN TO

SHIELD ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. HOWEVER, IF THE MOTION IS

SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SST SELF-INDUCED COOLING COULD

SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. CONSISTENTLY WITH THE

SPEED OF THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

STRONG OVER THE NEXT DAYS (MODULO THE FLUCTUATIONS LINKED TO EVENTUAL

ERCS). FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO  DETERIORATE

AS THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.=



2018-01-30 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 301211

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  958 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 79.0 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 00 UTC:

15.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 12 UTC:

15.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130081246

2018013006 07S CEBILE     014  01 270 06 SATL 045

T000 160S 0798E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 130 SE QD

    110 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 160S 0790E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0782E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD

    165 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 160S 0775E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD

    180 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 163S 0768E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD

    190 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 174S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD

    180 SW QD 135 NW QD

T096 188S 0772E 095 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD

    170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T120 206S 0795E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050

    120 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 215 SE QD

    170 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130081246

2018013006 07S CEBILE     014  01 270 06 SATL 045

T000 160S 0798E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 160S 0790E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0782E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 160S 0775E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 163S 0768E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 174S 0762E 105 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 135 NW QD

T096 188S 0772E 095 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T120 206S 0795E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 215 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.0S 78.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 16.0S 77.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.3S 76.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.4S 76.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.8S 77.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 20.6S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100

0718013006 160S 798E 100



2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-30 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 014

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   300600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 79.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 79.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.0S 79.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.0S 78.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 16.0S 77.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.3S 76.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.4S 76.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.8S 77.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 20.6S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS

A 60NM EYE FEATURE WITH SYMMETRICAL RADIAL BANDING CONVERGING INTO

THE STRONG CONVECTIVE CORE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL

POSITION BASED ON THE ABNORMALLY LARGE EYE FEATURE LEFT BEHIND AFTER

COMPLETION OF A RECENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT

INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT

INTENSITY AT OR AROUND 100 TO 105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED ALOFT

OVER THE SYSTEM. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS WITH

MODERATE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD

UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO BOTH

THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING

WESTWARD AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A RESULTANT

WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 07S BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES.

BEYOND TAU 72 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE THE

SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WITH THE DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMING

STEERING AND SHIFTING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING

ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT

ON THE PHILOSOPHY. JGSM, EGRR, AND AFUM SHOW THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL

RIDGE BECOMING STRONGER EARLIER WITH A RESULTANT TRACK TO THE

SOUTHEAST HAPPENING SOONER. THE REMAINING MODELS IN THE MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS SHOW A PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO

THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST

TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//



2018-01-30 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 300631



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 79.6 E

(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 190

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

72H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 04/02/2018 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION

POST-TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0 CI=5.5



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE

L'OEIL S'EST ACHEVE. AU CENTRE DU GRAND OEIL DE CEBILE, IL NE RESTE

PLUS QUE QUELQUES CIRRUS RESIDUELS ET SEULS DES NUAGES DE BASSES

COUCHES MATERIALISENT ENCORE LES VESTIGES DU PETIT OEIL DE LA VEILLE.

BIEN QUE LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SOIENT LEGEREMENT RECHAUFFES EN FIN

DE NUIT, LA CONVECTION A DE NOUVEAU BIEN REPRIS AU COURS DES

DERNIERES HEURES CE QUI SUGGERE UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION

A VENIR.



LE CAP DE CEBILE RESTE ORIENTE A L'OUEST, AVEC MEME UNE LEGERE

TENDANCE OUEST-NORD-OUEST SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LE SYSTEME EST

PRIS ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE

EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION PILOTENT DEUX FLUX

DIRECTEURS OPPOSES. LES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT UN LENT

DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE

AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE. EN

MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE

CEBILE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR REPRENDRE

LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE

SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. ALORS QUE L'INFLUENCE DES

DORSALES VARIE D'UN MODELE A L'AUTRE, LA DISPERSION RESTE IMPORTANTE

SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE CE QUI DONNE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS ELEVEE QUE LA

NORMALE.



MAINTENANT QUE LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST TERMINE,

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE REINTENSIFIER DANS LES PROCHAINES

HEURES. JUSQU'A JEUDI SOIR, CEBILE DEVRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN CONTEXTE

QUASI-IDEAL AU NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET

DU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE, QUI AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E. LE

SYSTEME DEVRAIT AINSI TROUVER ASSEZ D'ENERGIE DANS L'OCEAN POUR

EMPECHER L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT DE PENETRER SON COEUR. CEPENDANT, SI

CEBILE RALENTIT PLUS QUE PREVU, LE REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX

SOUS-JASCENTES POURRAIT FAIRE DIMINUER DRASTIQUEMENT SON INTENSITE.

EN COHERENCE AVEC LA VITESSE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE,

LE SYSTEME A TOUTES LES CHANCES DE SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE

ELEVEE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS (MODULO LES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A

D'AUTRES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT). A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LES

CONDITIONS DEVIENNENT MOINS FAVORABLES AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT

D'OUEST LIE A  L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE.=



2018-01-30 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 300631



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 79.6 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 210 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/04 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0 CI=5.5



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE CAME TO AN END.

A FEW RESIDUAL CIRRUS REMAIN WITHIN CEBILE'S WIDE EYE AND ONLY LOW

LEVEL CLOUDS STILL MATERIALIZE THE REMAINS OF YESTERDAY'S SMALL EYE.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED UP BEFORE SUNRISE, CONVECTION

HAS STRENGTHENED AGAIN OVER THE LAST HOURS. THIS SUGGEST A NEW

INTENSIFICATION PHASE TO COME.



CEBILE IS STILL TRACKING WESTWARDS, WITH EVEN A SLIGHT

WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TENDENCY ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES. THE SYSTEM IS

CAUGHT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC

STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. THE AVAILABLE MODELS

SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE

SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER. FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE

WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENING AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL

RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING FLOW. THIS DRIVES A SHARP

SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. AS THE

INFLUENCE OF THE TWO RIDGES IS VARYING FROM ONE MODEL TO AN OTHER,THE

DISPERSION REMAINS HIGH AROUND THIS TRACK FORECAST, RESULTING IN A

HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL.



NOW THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS OVER, THE SYSTEM

SHOULD BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY IN THE NEXT HOURS. UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT,

CEBILE SHOULD TRACK WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS CONCERNING WIND

SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, WHICH IS EVEN

INCREASING WEST OF 80E. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN FIND ENOUGH ENERGY IN

THE OCEAN TO SHIELD ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. HOWEVER, IF

THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED, THE SST COOLING COULD

SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. CONSISTENTLY WITH THE

SPEED OF THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN STRONG

OVER THE NEXT DAYS (MODULO THE FLUCTUATIONS LINKED TO EVENTUAL ERCS).

FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO  DETERIORATE AS THE

WESTERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.=



2018-01-30 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 300620 CCA

***************CORRECTIVE**************

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  960 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 79.6 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP

TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.





FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 18 UTC:

16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 06 UTC:

15.9 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

CORRECTION OF GALE FORCE EXTENSIONS=



2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130011950

2018013000 07S CEBILE     013  01 230 05 SATL 030

T000 160S 0804E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 162S 0795E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 162S 0785E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 163S 0777E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD

    170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 164S 0769E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD

    175 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 169S 0759E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    080 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD

    175 SW QD 130 NW QD

T096 184S 0757E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD

    160 SW QD 135 NW QD

T120 205S 0786E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD

    155 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 300300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180130011950

2018013000 07S CEBILE     013  01 230 05 SATL 030

T000 160S 0804E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 162S 0795E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 162S 0785E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 163S 0777E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 164S 0769E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 169S 0759E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 130 NW QD

T096 184S 0757E 105 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD

T120 205S 0786E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 16.2S 78.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.4S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.9S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.4S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 20.5S 78.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100

0718013000 160S 804E 100



2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-30 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 300300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 013

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   300000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 80.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 80.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 16.2S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 16.2S 78.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.4S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.9S 75.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.4S 75.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 20.5S 78.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 80.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY

CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP

CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE WITH

A BROADENED EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS WIDENED TO OVER 50 NM AFTER AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED

WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EYE

FEATURE. THE PLACEMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF A 292200Z

SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LARGE EYE FEATURE WITH A

SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SOME EVIDENCE OF THE PREVIOUS

EYEWALL, WHICH HAS NOW BEEN REPLACED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS

ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS THOUGH THE CYCLONE PROBABLY REACHED A MINIMUM

OF AROUND 95 KNOTS BETWEEN WARNING CYCLES DUE TO THE ERC. NOW THAT

THE ERC IS COMPLETE, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN

BACK TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH ADVANCED DVORAK

TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS

(SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC

CEBILE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT

WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE THE CLOSE

PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN

HEAT CONTENT. TC 07S REMAINS COCOONED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A

SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL

RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE LYING TO

THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN OF COMPETING RIDGES IS

SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD, DRAGGING TC 07S ALONG WITH IT. TC CEBILE

IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.

AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD IN

RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE SOUTH.

DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THOUGH IT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN THE

TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE U.S. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT

AGREEMENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 72 NEAR THE 75E

LONGITUDE LINE, WHILE THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM

SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND HWRF SOLUTIONS,

ALONG WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ARE SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE.

THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AS

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST

PHILOSOPHY AT THIS TIME. NOW THAT THE ERC HAS COMPLETED, TC CEBILE

WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, AS THERE IS LITTLE TO

HINDER THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 72, COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS

WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY

IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE

AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC

FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//



2018-01-30 01:46

WTIO31 FMEE 300123



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 80.4 E

(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-OUEST 4 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SO: 300 NO: 180

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 130

48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

72H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 04/02/2018 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0 CI=5.5



LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMI DE 2116Z ET SSMIS DE 22Z)

MONTRENT QUE LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST ENTRE DANS

SA PHASE TERMINALE: LE PETIT COEUR CENTRAL INITIAL A IMPLOSE AVEC

QUELQUES RESTES ENCORE VISIBLES AU SEIN D'UN NOUVEL OEIL DE 55-60 MN

DE DIAMETRE. L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE EST DELICATE CAR LA METHODE DE

DVORAK N'EST PAS ADAPTEE A CE GENRE DE SITUATION. LES VENTS MAX SONT

ESTIMES EN LEGERE BAISSE A 80 KT EN EXTRAPOLATION D'UN SATCON A 98 KT

1 MIN (86 KT 10 MIN) DE 1623Z. EN EFFET, LE RAYON DE VENT MAX SE

SITUANT MAINTENANT DANS LE MUR EXTERNE, LE SYSTEME EST PROBABLEMENT

AU MINIMUM DE LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIEE AU CYCLE DU MUR DE

L'OEIL (CF.SITKOWSKI ETAL. 2011).



LE DEPLACEMENT, QUI CONTINUE D'OSCILLER ENTRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET

SUD-OUEST, DEVIENT LENT. CEBILE VA ETRE CONCERNE PAR DEUX FLUX

DIRECTEURS OPPOSES AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS ENTRE UNE DORSALE

SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU

NORD-EST. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SUGGERENT UN LENT DEPLACEMENT EN

DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUGGERANT QUE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST

DEVRAIT AVOIR UN LEGER AVANTAGE. TOUTEFOIS CE MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT PLUS

RESSEMBLER A UNE DERIVE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE

SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE CEBILE ET LA DORSALE

PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DEVRAIT FINIR PAR PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX

DIRECTEUR IMPOSANT UN FRANC VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST SUIVI D'UNE

ACCELERATION GRADUELLE. LES MODELES SONT ENTRAIN PROGRESSIVEMENT DE

SE METTRE EN PHASE SUR LA LOCALISATION DU VIRAGE MAIS DES DIFFERENCES

IMPORTANTES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SONT TOUJOURS CONSTATEES.

MALGRE TOUT CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE TOUJOURS CREDITEE

D'UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE.



L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIEE AU REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST TRES

PROBABLEMENT TEMPORAIRE. EN REDRESSANT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE

L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME VA SE RETROUVER DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-IDEAL AU

NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU

ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE (IL VA AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E TANT QUE LE

SYSTEME RESTE AU NORD DE 18S). CELA DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE D'ISOLER LE

COEUR DU SYSTEME DE L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT ... SI LE DEPLACEMENT RESTE

SUFFISANT POUR EMPECHER UN REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST SOUS JACENTES

(HYPOTHESE PRIVILEGIEE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE MAIS QUI RESTE ELLE AUSSI A

VERIFIER ...). SUR CETTE BASE, UN SECOND PIC D'INTENSITE EST PROBABLE

MAINTENANT QUE LE CYCLE EST SUR LE POINT DE SE TERMINER.



SI CEBILE NE SUBIT PAS DE REFROIDISSEMENT LIE A LA SST, LE SYSTEME A

TOUTES LES CHANCES DE SE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE AU COURS

DES PROCHAINS JOURS (AVEC DES FLUCTUATIONS LIEES A D'AUTRES POSSIBLES

CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT) AVANT DE CONNAITRE DES CONDITIONS MOINS

FAVORABLES EN FIN DE SEMAINE AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST

LIE A  L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST.=



2018-01-30 01:46

WTIO30 FMEE 300123



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/30 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 80.4 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY    DECIMAL FOUR

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 300 NW: 180

34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 130

48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90

64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0 CI=5.5



LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI AT 2116Z AND SSMIS AT 22Z) DEPICT AN

ERC IN ITS TERMINAL PHASE: THE TINY INNER-CORE HAS COLLAPSED WITH

SOME REMNANTS STILL VISIBLE WITHIN A NEW 55-60 NM WIDE EYE. THE

INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS TRICKY AS CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUE (DVORAK) IS

NOT SUITED FOR THIS KIND OF SITUATION. THE MAX WINDS AT 80 KT IS

EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SATCON AT 1623Z WITH 98 KT 1-MIN WINDS (OR 86 KT

10-MIN WINDS). INDEED, NOW THAT THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS HAS SHIFTED

IN THE OUTER WALL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY AT THE WEAKEST PART OF THE

ERC CONCEPTUAL MODEL (CF SITKOWSKI ETAL. 2011)



THE FORWARD MOTION, THAT IS STILL FLUCTUATING BETWEEN

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SOUTHWESTWARDS, HAS SLOW DOWN. CEBILE IS

CAUGHT IN-BETWEEN TWO OPPOSITE STEERING FLOW WITH THE STR TO THE

SOUTH-WEST AND A NER TO ITS NORTH-EAST. ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE

SUGGEST A SLOW WESTWARDS MOTION SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING FLOW

FROM THE STR WILL PREVAIL FIRST. GIVEN THE CONTEXT, THE WESTWARD

MOTION MAY RATHER BE CLOSE TO A DRIFT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IN THE

MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST

AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO TAKE

THE LEAD ON THE STEERING FLOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A

SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE. MODELS ARE BECOMING

SOMEWHAT IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCALIZATION OF THE TURN BUT

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD MOTION ARE STILL NOTED AMONG

THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THE CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW IN THE

FORECAST TRACK.



THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE ERC IS LIKELY TEMPORARILY. AS

THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARDS, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH A NEAR PERFECT

ENVIRONMENT IN TERM OF SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC

CONTAIN (IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNDER THE SYSTEM AS LONG AS IT

MOVE WEST OF 80E AND STAY NORTH OF 18S). IT SHOULD ALLOW THE

INNER-CORE TO BE PROTECTED FROM ENVIRONMENTAL DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ....

IF THE FORWARD MOTION REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT A SELF-INDUCED

OCEANIC COOLING. THIS IS THE CURRENT HYPOTHESIS OF THE CURRENT

FORECAST ... BUT HERE TOO, SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ....



IF CEBILE DON'T SUFFER FROM SELF-INDUCED COLD SST, THIS SYSTEM HAS

THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN AT FAIRLY HIGH INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS (WITH SOME UNPREDICTABLE FLUCTUATIONS LINKED TO OTHER POTENTIAL

ERC) BEFORE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK

WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER

LEVEL TROUGH.=



2018-01-30 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 300023

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  958 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 80.4 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP

TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE

SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.





FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 12 UTC:

16.1 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/31 AT 00 UTC:

16.0 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

INNER CORE WINDS RADII HAS INCREASED AS THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETED AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.=



2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS51 PGTW 292100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129193050

2018012918 07S CEBILE     012  01 235 04 SATL 020

T000 157S 0808E 100 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 159S 0800E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD

    150 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0791E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD

    150 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 161S 0783E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD

    160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 162S 0775E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD

    170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 164S 0761E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD

    180 SW QD 130 NW QD

T096 175S 0753E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD

    170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T120 197S 0774E 085 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    095 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD

    165 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS51 PGTW 292100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129193050

2018012918 07S CEBILE     012  01 235 04 SATL 020

T000 157S 0808E 100 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 159S 0800E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 160S 0791E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD

T036 161S 0783E 105 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 162S 0775E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 164S 0761E 115 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD

T096 175S 0753E 100 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD

T120 197S 0774E 085 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 16.2S 77.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.4S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 19.7S 77.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 80.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012906 152S 815E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012912 155S 811E 110

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100

0718012918 157S 808E 100



2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS31 PGTW 292100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-29 20:31

WTXS31 PGTW 292100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 012

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   291800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 80.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 80.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 15.9S 80.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.0S 79.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.1S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 16.2S 77.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.4S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.5S 75.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 19.7S 77.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 80.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY

DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING

INTO A VERY SMALL, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 6 NM INNER EYE

FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED

ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE. 291346Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES

AT 36 AND 39 GHZ INDICATED THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT

CYCLE (ERC), WITH THE COMPACT 6 NM INNER EYE SURROUNDED BY A 65 NM

OUTER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS IN

LIGHT OF THE ONGOING ERC AS WELL AS MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS), AN

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T5.3 (97 KNOTS AND A

SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL

ANALYSIS INDICATES TC CEBILE LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH

LIGHT (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE. THE TOTAL

PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A DEEP

MOISTURE FIELD, WHILE TRANSITING IN AN AREA OF A HIGH SSTS OF 28-29

DEG CELSIUS). TC 07S IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN A

DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR

EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS

RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENTIRE PATTERN IS DRIFTING

SLOWLY WESTWARD, RESULTING IN THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE

SYSTEM. TC CEBILE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND NER THROUGH THE

NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 72, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STR TO THE

SOUTH, ALLOWING A FAIRLY SHARP POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS

GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT

DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS

INDICATE A TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHILE THE NVGM AND COTC

MODELS SHOW A TURN BEYOND 72 HOURS WELL TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST

IS PLACED NEAR THE GROUPING OF THE U.S. MODELS AND WELL WEST OF THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A NEAR-

TERM RECURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS

UNDERGOING AN ERC, LEADING TO SOME NEAR-TERM WEAKENING. HOWEVER,

ONCE THE ERC IS COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC CEBILE

WILL BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY

FAVORABLE AND THERE IS LITTLE TO WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER

THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL ERC'S. BEYOND TAU 72,

COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEAKENING

TREND. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE

SOUTH, AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z,

301500Z AND 302100Z.//



2018-01-29 19:31

WTIO31 FMEE 291858



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 80.7 E

(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES SEPT EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :11 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SO: 330 NO: 150

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 03/02/2018 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=4.5+ CI=5.5



LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA SOIREE MONTRENT MAINTENANT CLAIREMENT

QUE CEBILE CONNAIT UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. UN MUR

EXTERNE D'UN DIAMETRE D'ENVIRON 90 MN S'EST CONSTITUE AUTOUR DU MUR

INITIAL QUI A COMMENCE A PERDRE DE SA VIGUEUR. LE SYSTEME EST DANS

UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE A ETE ESTIMEE

LEGEREMENT EN-DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK.



LA TRAJECTOIRE A COMMENCE A RALENTIR ET A SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST

AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE

SON EXTENSION VERS LE NORD. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE

SUBTROPICALE FAIBLIT AU SUD-EST DE CEBILE ET UNE DORSALE

PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT

ALORS PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST ET ACCELERER. LES

MODELES SONT GRADUELLEMENT ENTRAIN DE SE METTRE EN PHASE SUR LA

LOCALISATION DU VIRAGE (UKMO RESTE UN OUTLIER A L'EST) MAIS DES

DIFFERENCES IMPORTANTES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SONT TOUJOURS

CONSTATEES. SUR LES DERNIERS MODELES UTILISES (INCLUANT CERTAINS

MODELES DE 12Z), LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST GLOBALEMENT PLUS

RAPIDE A PARTIR DU MILIEU DE SEMAINE ET LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE A ETE

AJUSTEE EN CONSEQUENCE.



L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIEE AU REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST TRES

PROBABLEMENT TEMPORAIRE. EN REDRESSANT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE

L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME VA SE RETROUVER DANS UN CONTEXTE QUASI-IDEAL AU

NIVEAU DU CISAILLEMENT, DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DU CONTENU

ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE (IL VA AUGMENTE A L'OUEST DE 80E TANT QUE LE

SYSTEME RESTE AU NORD DE 18S). CELA DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE D'ISOLER LE

COEUR DU SYSTEME DE L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT MALGRE UN DEPLACEMENT

FAIBLE QUI DEVRAIT MALGRE TOUT RESTER SUFFISANT POUR EMPECHER UN

REFROIDISSEMENT DES SST SOUS JACENTES. UN SECOND PIC D'INTENSITE

APPARAIT PLAUSIBLE DES QUE LE CYCLE SERA TERMINEE. IL EST IMPORTANT

DE NOTER QUE LE TIMING DE LA FIN DU CYCLE EST INCERTAIN ... POUR

L'INSTANT, LA PREVISION TABLE SUR UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION EN COURS DE

JOURNEE DE DEMAIN.



UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC RESTE ENVISAGE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC

LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR OUEST.=



2018-01-29 19:31

WTIO30 FMEE 291858



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 80.7 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY    DECIMAL SEVEN

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 190 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/03 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.5+ CI=5.5



MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF THIS EVENING CLEARLY SHOW THAT CEBILE IS

UNDERGOING EN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). AN OUTER RING OF

CONVECTION IS NOW ENCOMPASSING THE TINY INNER CORE THAT SHOW SOME

SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS NOW ON A WEAKENING TREND AND THE

INTENSITY ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN PUT JUST BELOW ALL DVORAK ESTIMATES.



CEBILE TRACKS HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEND WESTWARDS DUE TO THE

REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IN ITS

SOUTH-WESTERN PART. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE

TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN.

MODELS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOCALIZATION

OF THE TURN (UKMO REMAINS AN OUTLIER TO THE EAST) BUT SIGNIFICANT

DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD MOTION ARE STILL NOTED AMONG THE NUMERICAL

GUIDANCE. LATEST AVAILABLE NWP (INCLUDING SOME OF THE 12Z CYCLE) SHOW

A FASTER TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AND SO THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST.



THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE ERC IS LIKELY TEMPORARILY. AS

THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARDS, IT WILL MOVE THROUGH A NEAR PERFECT

ENVIRONMENT IN TERM OF SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC

CONTAIN (IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNDER THE SYSTEM AS LONG AS IT

MOVE WEST OF 80E AND STAY NORTH OF 18S). IT SHOULD ALLOW THE

INNER-CORE TO BE PROTECTED FROM THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALTHOUGH THE

SLOW FORWARD MOTION. THE MOTION IS HYPOTHESIZED TO BE "FAST" ENOUGH

TO PREVENT SELF-INDUCED OCEANIC COOLING. A SECOND PEAK OF INTENSITY

APPEAR NOW LIKELY PENDING ON WHEN THE ERC WILL END. SOME UNCERTAINTY

REMAINS ON THAT POINT AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPOSED THAT

INTENSIFICATION MAY RESUME TOMORROW.



A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD AS A WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE.=



2018-01-29 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 291823

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 011/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  955 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 80.7 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO

200 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 06 UTC:

16.0 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 18 UTC:

16.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-29 13:01

WTIO31 FMEE 291229



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 81.2 E

(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-OUEST 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/18 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 946 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 03/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0+ CI=5.5+



AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LE SYSTEME A CONNU UNE NOUVELLE PHASE

D'INTENSIFICATION AVEC UN OEIL QUI S'EST BIEN RECHAUFFE MAIS QUI PERD

DE NOUVEAU EN DEFINITION DEPUIS 1030Z. LA CONFIGURATION EN IMAGERIE

MICRO-ONDE A PEU EVOLUE (GCOM 0710Z) AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL DE

TRES PETITE TAILLE ET UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION INTENSE QUI S'ENROULE

AUTOUR DU CENTRE SUGGERANT QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL

PUISSE SE PRODUIRE.



LA TRAJECTOIRE RESTE ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE

LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE

AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE NORD, VA

RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME, EN L'ORIENTANT TEMPORAIREMENT

VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT DANS SA

PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCE DANS SON

NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU

SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE

DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA

VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR

CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE SYSTEME EST PREVU AMMORCER SON VIRAGE

VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE

TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,

AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. PAR CONSEQUENT, LE SYSTEME

EST PREVU CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE. LES SEULS PARAMETRES

LIMITANT POURRAIENT ETRE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI EST REDUIT

AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN PUIS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE

QUI DEVIENT  TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE

MARDI. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANC EST ENVISAGE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE

AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE SECTEUR

OUEST.=



2018-01-29 13:01

WTIO30 FMEE 291229



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 81.2 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL

TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/18 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 946 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0+ CI=5.5+



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EYE HAS WARMED SUGGESTING A NEW PHASE OF

INTENSIFICATION BUT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED SINCE 1030Z. MICROWAVE

PATTERN HAS NOT MUCH EVOLVED (GCOM 0710Z) WITH A PINHOLE EYE AND AN

OUTER INTENSE CONVECTION BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CENTRE SUGGESTING

THAT AN ERC COULD OCCUR.



CEBILE TRACKS SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION

OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF

CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG

WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO

THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND THE UPPER

DIVERGENCE VERY GOOD. SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP A

SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSITY. THE LIMITING PARAMETERS SHOULD BE A REDUCED

OHC TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THEN A MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT

SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A CLEAR

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WESTERLY

VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE.=



2018-01-29 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 291220

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 010/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  946 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 81.2 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO

220 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 00 UTC:

16.0 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 12 UTC:

16.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-29 08:55

WTXS51 PGTW 290900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129072632

2018012906 07S CEBILE     010  01 220 06 SATL 015

T000 153S 0817E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD

    115 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 159S 0808E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 163S 0798E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 164S 0789E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 164S 0781E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 167S 0767E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD

    170 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 174S 0761E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD

    175 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 189S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-29 08:55

WTXS51 PGTW 290900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129072632

2018012906 07S CEBILE     010  01 220 06 SATL 015

T000 153S 0817E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 159S 0808E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 163S 0798E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 164S 0789E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 164S 0781E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 167S 0767E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 174S 0761E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 189S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 16.3S 79.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.4S 78.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.4S 78.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.7S 76.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.4S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.9S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 81.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 731 NM SOUTHEAST

OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z, AND 301500Z.//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012906 153S 817E 110

0718012906 153S 817E 110

0718012906 153S 817E 110



2018-01-29 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-29 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 010

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   290600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 81.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 81.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 15.9S 80.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 16.3S 79.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.4S 78.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.4S 78.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 16.7S 76.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.4S 76.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   030600Z --- 18.9S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 81.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 731 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE 0N A

COMPACT AND SUPER-DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS

BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 290353Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE

PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON

CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE

SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE (15-KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY

GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) ALONG-TRACK SSTS. THIS DYNAMIC

BALANCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MAINTAINING

THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, A COMPETING STEERING STR

TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TRIGGER A

SOUTHWESTWARD RECURVE AS THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT

STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS STAGE, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

CAUSING GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS

SPREAD OUT AT THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH

VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE RECARVATURE WITH EGRR AS THE LEFTMOST

OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE JUST TO

THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z,

300900Z, AND 301500Z.//



2018-01-29 06:46

WTIO31 FMEE 290614



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 81.6 E

(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES SIX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 944 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2400 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 03/02/2018 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.0 CI=6.0



LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES INFRA-ROUGES MONTRENT LA REFORMATION

D'UN POINT CHAUD AU SEIN DU CDO TRES FROID. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE

LA NUIT (SSMIS 0032Z PUIS AMSUB 0157Z) REVELENT LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL

DE PETITE TAILLE AUTOUR DUQUEL S'ENTOURE UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION

INTENSE CE QUI POURRAIT SUGGERER QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE

L'OEIL (ERC) SOIT EN COURS. EN ATTENDANT LA CONFIRMATION DE L'ERC,

L'ESTIMATION INTENSITE RESTE EVALUE A 100 KT, SOIT UNE INTENSITE

LEGEREMENT INFERIEURE A CELLE ESTIMEE PAR LES TECHNIQUES OBJECTIVES

DE DVORAK(ADT, AMSU, SATCON).



LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE

NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT

DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE

NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT

TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE

FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE

RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN

VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE

INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON

DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME

PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE

SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE

ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE

DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,

AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONSERVER UNE

INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE. LES SEULS PARAMETRES LIMITANT POURRAIENT

ETRE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE QUI EST REDUIT AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN PUIS

UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI DEVIENT  TRES SEC A

L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME A PARTIR DE MARDI. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT

PLUS FRANC EST ENVISAGE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN

CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST.=



2018-01-29 06:46

WTIO30 FMEE 290614



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 81.6 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 2400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/03 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0 CI=6.0



LAST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW THE RE-FORMATION OF AN HOT

POINT WITHIN THE COLD CDO. THIS NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (0032Z

SSMIS AND THEN 0157Z AMSUB) REVEAL A PINHOLE AND AN OUTER INTENSE

CONVECTION BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE CENTRE THAT COULD SUGGEST THAT

AN ERC COULD OCCUR. WAITING THE ERC CONFIRMATION, INTENSITY

ASSESSMENT REMAINS AT 100 KT, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK

ASSESSMENT (ADT, AMSU, SATCON).



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION

OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF

CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG

WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO

THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE

VERY GOOD. SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP A SIGNIFICANTLY

INTENSITY. THE LIMITING PARAMETERS SHOULD BE A REDUCED OHC TODAY AND

TOMORROW AND THEN A MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT  SPECIALLY OVER THE

WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A CLEAR WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD

INCREASE.=



2018-01-29 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 290609

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  944 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 81.6 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 18 UTC:

15.9 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 06 UTC:

16.2 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 290300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129023858

2018012900 07S CEBILE     009  01 230 08 SATL 030

T000 148S 0821E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 130 SE QD

    120 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 156S 0811E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 161S 0803E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 164S 0794E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 165S 0786E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 165S 0772E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD

    170 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 168S 0762E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD

    175 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 186S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 290300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180129023858

2018012900 07S CEBILE     009  01 230 08 SATL 030

T000 148S 0821E 110 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 156S 0811E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 161S 0803E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T036 164S 0794E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T048 165S 0786E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 165S 0772E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD

T096 168S 0762E 090 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 186S 0769E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 16.1S 80.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 16.5S 78.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.5S 77.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.8S 76.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.6S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z

IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900, 291500Z, 292100, AND 300300Z.//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110

0718012900 148S 821E 110



2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-29 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 290300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   290000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 82.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 82.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.6S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 16.1S 80.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 16.4S 79.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 16.5S 78.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 16.5S 77.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 16.8S 76.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   030000Z --- 18.6S 76.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 81.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY

INDICATES THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS STALLED OR ENDED,

AS THE EYE FILLED. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY

SUGGESTS THE EYE MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM. A 290040Z GPM 89 GHZ PASS

STILL SHOWS A PIN-HOLE MICROWAVE EYE WITH GOOD SPIRAL BANDING OF

DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND

THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITIES REMAIN T6.0, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED

AT 110 KNOTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DEGRADATION OF CORE CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS

LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS); HOWEVER, OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED

AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE WANING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW

SUGGESTS CEBILE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD REMAIN

NEAR 110-115 KNOTS BEFORE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEGINS AS OCEANIC

SUPPORT BEGINS TO DROP. TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUB-

TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. CEBILE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON

A MORE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR

BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST WILL

RESULT IN SLOWING FORWARD MOTION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, A

WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STR, ALLOWING A POLEWARD TURN.

DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A BI-FURCATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH THE

UKMET MODELS INDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE

FORECAST IS PLACED WITH THE WESTERN SOLUTION SET BECAUSE DATA DOES

NOT SUPPORT A STRONG RE-CURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST

TRACK WAS ADJUSTED FURTHER WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO

ADJUST FOR THE EASTERN OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE SHARP BI-FURCATION IN

DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

290000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND

300300Z.//



2018-01-29 01:16

WTIO31 FMEE 290021



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 82.2 E

(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-OUEST 7 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 944 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 29/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

120H: 03/02/2018 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE

TROPICALE MODEREE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=5.5 CI=6.0.



APRES AVOIR CONNU UNE INTENSIFICATION EXTREMEMENT RAPIDE HIER(GAIN DE

65 KT EN 24H !) CEBILE SEMBLE AVOIR ATTEINT UN MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE.

APRES AVOIR PRESENTE OEIL BIEN ROND TRES CHAUD AU SEIN D'UNE CDO

SYMETRIQUE ET TRES FROID, DURANT LES TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES LA

PRESENTATION NUAGEUSE S'EST RAPIDEMMENT DETERIORE AVEC NOTAMMENT LA

DISPARITION DE L'OEIL EN IMAGERIE SATELLITE. CETTE VARIATION RAPIDE

SEMBLE ETRE DU A L'ARRIVVE SUR LES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE

MOINDRE. CEBILE EST UN CYCLONE DONT LE COEUR EST DE PETITE TAILLE, CE

QUI FAVORISE CES CHANGEMENTS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE.





LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE

NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT

DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE

NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT

TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE

FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE

RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN

VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE

INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON

DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME

PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE

SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE

ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE

DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,

AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE, MAIS LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER SUR DES

ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE PLUS, A PARTIR DE

MARDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRES SEC A

L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS

ENVISAGE QUI POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE

RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST.=



2018-01-29 01:16

WTIO30 FMEE 290021



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 82.2 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL

TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.5 CI=6.0.



AFTER A EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY, CEBILE SEEMS TO

HAVE REACHED A MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY SHOWING A CIRCULAR EYE VERY HOT

WITHIN A SYMETRIC CDO VERY COLD. THEN IN THE VERY LAST HOURS THE

CLOUD PRESENTATION HAS QUICKLY DETERIORED  WITH IN PARTICULAR THE

LOSS OF THE EYE. THIS QUICK EVOLUTION SEEMS TO BE DU  TO THE ARRIVAL

OVER SEAS OF REDUCE ENERGICAL POTENTIAL. CEBILE IS A SMALL INNER CORE

SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION

OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF

CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG

WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO

THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE

VERY GOOD. HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC

POTENTIAL IS LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL

ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN

AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START A SLOW WEAKENING TREND

THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR

INCREASE.=



2018-01-29 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 290016

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 008/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  944 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 82.2 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 12 UTC:

16.0 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/30 AT 00 UTC:

16.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS51 PGTW 282100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128201101

2018012818 07S CEBILE     008  01 225 07 SATL 030

T000 143S 0827E 115 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD

    115 SW QD 085 NW QD

T012 151S 0818E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD

    125 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 158S 0809E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD

    130 SW QD 100 NW QD

T036 162S 0800E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 105 NW QD

T048 164S 0795E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 166S 0786E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD

    155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 168S 0775E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD

    165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 176S 0773E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD

    165 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS51 PGTW 282100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128201101

2018012818 07S CEBILE     008  01 225 07 SATL 030

T000 143S 0827E 115 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD

T012 151S 0818E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 158S 0809E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD

T036 162S 0800E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 105 NW QD

T048 164S 0795E 120 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 166S 0786E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 168S 0775E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 115 NW QD

T120 176S 0773E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   281800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 82.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 82.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 15.1S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 15.8S 80.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 16.2S 80.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.4S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 16.6S 78.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.8S 77.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.6S 77.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 82.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 290900Z,291500, 292100Z AND 300300.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012806 133S 840E  75

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012812 138S 832E  95

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115

0718012818 143S 827E 115



2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS31 PGTW 282100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   281800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 82.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST

QUADRANT                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 82.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 15.1S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-28 21:01

WTXS31 PGTW 282100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 008

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   281800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 82.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST

QUADRANT                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 82.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 15.1S 81.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 15.8S 80.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 16.2S 80.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 16.4S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 16.6S 78.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 16.8S 77.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   021800Z --- 17.6S 77.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 82.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY

DEPICTS CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING

WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A 12 NM

EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AGENCY FIXES OF THE EIR EYE.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK

ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. AN ANALYSIS OF

281900Z IMAGERY INDICATES 07S IS STILL INTENSIFYING AND MAY NOW BE

T6.5 TO T7.0. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER

LEVEL ANALYSIS, WHICH INDICATES CEBILE HAS TRACKED INTO AN AREA OF

LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS MAINTAINING ROBUST RADIAL

OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT AMPLE DEEP

MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, AND AN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC)

ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07S IS TRACKING OVER A REGION OF ENHANCED OHC.

TC 07S IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO

THE SOUTHEAST. CEBILE IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO WEST-

SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE

SOUTH, HOWEVER, A COMPETING STR TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN SLOWING

FORWARD MOTION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN

THE SOUTHERN STR, ALLOWING A POLEWARD TURN. DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A

BI-FURCATION IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH THE UKMET MODELS INDICATING

SHARP RECURVATURE BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST IS PLACED WITH

THE WESTERN SOLUTION SET BECAUSE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT A STRONG RE-

CURVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. AS NOTED ABOVE, TC CEBILE IS STILL

RAPIDLY INTENSFYING, WITH T6.5 TO T7.0 EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12

HOURS. BEYOND THAT, THERE IS NOTHING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO

WARRANT A DROP IN INTENSITY OTHER THAN NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND

POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), HOWEVER, NO ERC IS

INDICATED AT THIS TIME. BEYOND TAU 48, WEAKENING OCEANIC SUPPORT AND

INCREASING VWS WILL RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. DUE TO THE SHARP BI-

FURCATION IN DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

281800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z, AND

300300Z.//



2018-01-28 18:46

WTIO31 FMEE 281832



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 82.6 E

(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.0/D 2.5/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 944 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 29/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 02/02/2018 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE

TROPICALE MODEREE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=6.0-.



CEBILE A CONNU UNE INTENSIFICATION EXTREMEMENT RAPIDE AUJOURD'HUI

(GAIN DE 65 KT EN 24H !). DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL A

CONTINUE DE GAGNER EN DEFINITION, ET A SE RECHAUFFER, LE CDO SEMBLE

AVOIR GAGNER EN SYNMETRIE. CEBILE EST UN CYCLONE DONT LE COEUR EST DE

PETITE TAILLE, CE QUI FAVORISE CES CHANGEMENTS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE.





LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE

NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT

DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE

NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT

TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE

FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE

RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN

VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE

INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON

DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME

PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE

SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE

ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE

DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE,

AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE

SON INTENSIFICATION DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. CEPENDANT, CEBILE VA

TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE

PLUS, A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE

DEVIENT TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN ARRET DE

L'INTENSIFICATION ET UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS ENVISAGE QUI

POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN

CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST. LA DYNAMIQUE INTERNE (CYCLE DE

REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL) POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR ET MODULER

L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE, MAIS CES MECANISMES N'ONT QU'UNE TRES

FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE.=



2018-01-28 18:46

WTIO30 FMEE 281832



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.6 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 2.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/02 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=6.0-.



CEBILE UNDERWENT EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24

HOURS (+65 KT !). DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO

BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AND WARMING, THE CDO SEEMS TO BE MORE SYMETRIC

. CEBILE IS A SMALL INNER CORE SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID

INTENSITY CHANGE.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION

OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF

CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG

WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO

THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE LATEST GUIDANCE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS

THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK, AND DIVERGENCE VERY GOOD.

HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS

LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START BY THAT TIME A SLOW WEAKENING TREND

THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR

INCREASE. INTERNAL DYNAMICS (EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) MAY ALSO

MODULATE THE INTENSITY BUT THIS MECHANISM HAS VERY LOW

PREDICTABILITY.=



2018-01-28 18:46

WTIO20 FMEE 281810

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 007/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  944 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 82.6 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 06 UTC:

15.1 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 18 UTC:

15.8 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 281500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128133652

2018012812 07S CEBILE     007  01 240 11 SATL 015

T000 139S 0830E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD

    100 SW QD 085 NW QD

T012 150S 0820E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD

    130 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 158S 0812E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 100 NW QD

T036 163S 0805E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD

    145 SW QD 105 NW QD

T048 165S 0798E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD

    145 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 168S 0788E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD

    155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 173S 0783E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD

    180 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 182S 0787E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD

    190 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 281500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128133652

2018012812 07S CEBILE     007  01 240 11 SATL 015

T000 139S 0830E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD

T012 150S 0820E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 158S 0812E 120 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD

T036 163S 0805E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD

T048 165S 0798E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 168S 0788E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 173S 0783E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 182S 0787E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 16.3S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 16.5S 79.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.8S 78.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 17.3S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 18.2S 78.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 741 NM

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 281200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z,

290900Z AND 291500Z.//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  45

0718012806 133S 840E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  65

0718012812 139S 830E  90

0718012812 139S 830E  90

0718012812 139S 830E  90



2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 281500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-28 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 281500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 007

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   281200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 83.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 83.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 15.0S 82.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 16.3S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 16.5S 79.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 16.8S 78.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 17.3S 78.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   021200Z --- 18.2S 78.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

281500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 82.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 741 NM SOUTHEAST

OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS DEVELOPED A 15-NM

RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STILL UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)

NORTHERLY VWS CAUSING THE EYE TO BE TILTED FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 181101Z SSMIS PARTIAL

MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED

ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS

INDICATES THE MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC

07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, STEERED BY THE

STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS VWS

DECREASES AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE

WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR

TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE STR TO THE EAST WILL

EVENTUALLY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. TC CEBILE

WILL PEAK AT 125 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 36-48 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO

RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN

THE NEAR TO MID TERM BUT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE EXTENDED

PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z

IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//



2018-01-28 13:31

WTIO31 FMEE 281306



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8 S / 83.2 E

(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-OUEST 10 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 3.0/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :11 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 340 NO: 180

34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 130

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 29/01/2018 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

24H: 29/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 31/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 01/02/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 02/02/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=5.5+



CEBILE A CONNU UNE INTENSIFICATION EXTREMEMENT RAPIDE AUJOURD'HUI

(GAIN DE 65 KT EN 24H !). CET APRES-MIDI, L'OEIL A CONTINUE DE GAGNER

EN DEFINITION, A SE CONTRACTER ET A SE RECHAUFFER. CEBILE EST UN

CYCLONE DONT LE COEUR EST DE PETITE TAILLE, CE QUI FAVORISE CES

CHANGEMENTS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE. LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE

EST BASEE SUR L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK DU CMRS OU LES CONTRAINTES EN 6H

ONT MALGRE TOUT ETE RESPECTEES (PAS SUR LES AUTRES PAS DE TEMPS). IL

N'EST PAS IMPOSSIBLE QUE CETTE ESTIMATION SOIT UN PEU CONSERVATIVE

COMPTE TENU DE L'ANGLE DE VUE ASSEZ IMPORTANT DE MSG-1 SUR CE

SYSTEME. L'ADT OSCILLE ENTRE 6.1 ET 6.3 EN DT BRUT DEPUIS 0845Z,

MOMENT OU IL A CORRECTEMENT POSITIONNE LE CENTRE. L'ESTIMATION NON

CORRIGEE AMSU DE 1012Z A 89 KT (VENTS 1 MIN) EST PROBABLEMENT TROP

BASSE EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR CHAUD SUR LES PRODUITS

AMSU.



LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE AU SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE

NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT

DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON EXTENSION VERS LE

NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE, EN L'ORIENTANT

TEMPORAIREMENT VERS L'OUEST. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE

FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE

RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN

VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE

INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON

DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME

PARMI LES MODELES DISPONIBLES. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA REGION OU LE

SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST EST ENCORE

ASSEZ INCERTAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE PROCHE

DU CONSENSUS GLOBAL DES MODELES ET LES CHANGEMENTS SONT MINEURES PAR

RAPPORT A LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE

PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION DANS UN

PREMIER TEMPS. CEPENDANT, CEBILE VA TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE

POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE PLUS, A PARTIR DE MARDI,

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET

AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION ET UN

AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS ENVISAGE QUI POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN

FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR

OUEST. LA DYNAMIQUE INTERNE (CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL)

POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR ET MODULER L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE, MAIS

CES MECANISMES N'ONT QU'UNE TRES FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE (TRES COURT

TERME SEULEMENT)=



2018-01-28 13:31

WTIO30 FMEE 281306



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20172018

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 83.2 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE

DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 3.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 340 NW: 180

34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 130

48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/01/31 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.5+



CEBILE UNDERWENT EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24

HOURS (+65 KT !). THIS AFTERNOON, THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME

BETTER DEFINED, AS IT HAS CONTRACTING AND WARMING. CEBILE IS A SMALL

INNER CORE SYSTEM AND THAT FEATURE FAVOR RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE. THE

CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RSMC DVORAK

ANALYSIS WHERE 6HR CONSTRAINT ON FT HAS BEEN APPLIED (CONSTRAINT ON

FT VARIATION IN 12, 18 AND 24 HOURS ARE BROKEN). THE INTENSITY AT 95

KT MAY BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE RATHER SIGNIFICANT

SATELLITE VIEWING ANGLE WITH MSG-1. RAW ADT IS BETWEEN 6.1 AND 6.3

SINCE THE TIME THE EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN DETECTED (0845Z). THE

NON-CORRECTED AMSU ESTIMATES AT 89 KT (1 MIN WINDS) AT 1012Z IS

LIKELY TOO LOW GIVEN THE SMALL INNER-CORE OF CEBILE SEEN ON AMSU

PRODUCT.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION

OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF

CEBILE AND BEND THE FORWARD MOTION TEMPORARILY TOWARDS THE WEST. IN

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG

WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. SO

THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS

CYCLE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS

THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK. HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON

AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE

SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY

SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START

BY THAT TIME A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASE. INTERNAL DYNAMICS (EYE

WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) MAY ALSO MODULATE THE INTENSITY BUT THIS

MECHANISM HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY (VERY SHORT RANGE)=



2018-01-28 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 281226

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018

AT

1200 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 006/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.



PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  950 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 83.2 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE

SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT

AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 00 UTC:

14.8 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 12 UTC:

15.7 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 280900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128072211

2018012806 07S CEBILE     006  01 220 09 SATL 020

T000 133S 0840E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD

    120 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 145S 0830E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD

    120 SW QD 090 NW QD

T024 154S 0822E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD

    130 SW QD 095 NW QD

T036 160S 0815E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 150 SE QD

    130 SW QD 100 NW QD

T048 163S 0808E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 166S 0798E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 171S 0790E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD

    160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T120 177S 0790E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD

    155 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 280900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128072211

2018012806 07S CEBILE     006  01 220 09 SATL 020

T000 133S 0840E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 145S 0830E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD

T024 154S 0822E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD

T036 160S 0815E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD

T048 163S 0808E 105 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 166S 0798E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 171S 0790E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD

T120 177S 0790E 095 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 15.4S 82.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 16.0S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 16.3S 80.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.6S 79.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 17.1S 79.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.7S 79.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 774 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z

IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 848E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  45

0718012806 133S 840E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  65

0718012806 133S 840E  65



2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 280900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-28 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 280900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 006

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   280600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 84.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 84.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 14.5S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 15.4S 82.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 16.0S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 16.3S 80.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 16.6S 79.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 17.1S 79.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   020600Z --- 17.7S 79.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 83.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 774 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A DIMPLE FEATURE - PRELUDE TO AN EYE

AS IT RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE

AMBIGUITY PRODUCT DERIVED FROM A BULLSEYE 280415Z ASCAT PASS WITH

HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE

OF T4.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY

IMPROVED AS IT MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS AND WAS ENHANCED BY

GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE

VWS VECTOR. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,

STEERED BY THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY

AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE

WILL SLOW DOWN, POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A SECONDARY STR

TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. TC CEBILE WILL PEAK AT 105

KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BEFORE VWS BEGINS TO RE-INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE

NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT

SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT IN THE MID TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE

FORECAST, LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK

FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z, AND 290900Z.//



2018-01-28 07:16

WTIO31 FMEE 280656



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/5/20172018

1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 84.0 E

(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 977 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 190

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 150

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 28/01/2018 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

24H: 29/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

36H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

48H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 02/02/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=4.5



LES IMAGES EN HRV MSG-1 ONT MONTRE CE MATIN UNE EVOLUTION RAPIDE

D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL

EN PLACE DEPUIS 0400Z ENVIRON. L'OEIL DE 15-20 MN EST ENCORE ASSEZ

DECHIQUETTE ACTUELLEMENT. LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST

BASEE SUR L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS. LES AUTRES ESTIMATIONS

DISPONIBLES A 06 UTC VONT DE 57 KT A 80 KT (VENTS 10 MIN). LE SATCON

DE 0207Z EST A 78 KT (VENTS 1 MIN).



LA TRAJECTOIRE A PRIS UNE DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST ET PLACE CEBILE

SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE, FAVORABLE A UNE

POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD QUI

SE RENFORCE DANS SA PARTIE EST, CEBILE EST PREVU POURSUITE UN

DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT. PAR LA SUITE, LE

RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST DE CEBILE AINSI QUE SON

EXTENSION VERS LE NORD, VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE. PUIS EN

MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST ET UNE

DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE SE RENFORCE DANS SON NORD-EST. LE SYSTEME

DEVRAIT ALORS PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE

CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU

DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE

DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME ET PAR CONSEQUENT SUR LA REGION OU LE SYSTEME

EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS LE SUD-EST.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE

PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION DANS UN

PREMIER TEMPS. CEPENDANT, CEBILE VA TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE

POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE. DE PLUS, A PARTIR DE MARDI,

L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVIENT TRES SEC A L'OUEST ET

AU NORD DU SYSTEME. UN ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION ET UN

AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT EST ALORS ENVISAGE QUI POURRAIT S'ACCELERER EN

FIN D'ECHEANCE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR

OUEST. LA DYNAMIQUE INTERNE (CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL)

POURRAIT AUSSI INTERVENIR ET MODULER L'INTENSITE DU PHENOMENE, MAIS

CES MECANISMES N'ONT QU'UNE TRES FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE (TRES COURT

TERME SEULEMENT)=



2018-01-28 07:16

WTIO30 FMEE 280656



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20172018

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 84.0 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/28 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/02 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.5



MSG1 HRV IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE RAPID EVOLUTION FROM A CURVED BAND

PATTERN TO AN EYE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN REACHED AROUND 0400Z. THE

15-20 NM WIDE EYE IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED CURRENTLY. THE ANALYZED

INTENSITY IS BASED ON RSMC DVORAK ANALYSIS. OTHER DVORAK ESTIMATS

RANGE AT 06Z BETWEEN 57 KT TO 80 KT (10 MIN WINDS). AT 0207Z, THE

SATCON IS AT 78 KT (1 MIN WINDS).



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IS PLACED UNDER A WEAK

SHEAR, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK

SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT AND THE

NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW

THE MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS

TO ITS SOUTH-EAST ALONG WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS

NORTH-EAST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER

THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK BEYOND MONDAY

MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AMONG THE

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED

TO TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD FIRST MAINTAIN INTENSIFICATION AS

THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK. HOWEVER, CEBILE WILL TRANSIT ON

AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. MOREOVER, FROM TUESDAY THE

SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DRY

SPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CEBILE MAY START

BY THAT TIME A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASE. INTERNAL DYNAMICS (EYE

WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) MAY ALSO MODULATE THE INTENSITY BUT THIS

MECHANISM HAS VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY (VERY SHORT RANGE)=



2018-01-28 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 280614

PANPAN

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018

AT

0600 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 005/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



HURRICANE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.



PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (CEBILE)  977 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 84.0 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS

WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN

QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM

IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 18 UTC:

14.4 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 06 UTC:

15.5 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 280300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128022623

2018012800 07S CEBILE     005  01 180 08 SATL 060

T000 126S 0846E 045 R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD

T012 136S 0840E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034

    105 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 149S 0830E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD

    120 SW QD 085 NW QD

T036 156S 0822E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD

    130 SW QD 090 NW QD

T048 161S 0815E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 155 SE QD

    140 SW QD 100 NW QD

T072 165S 0801E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050

    060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 165 SE QD

    150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 170S 0791E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD

    165 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 178S 0788E 095 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD

    170 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM



2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 280300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180128022623

2018012800 07S CEBILE     005  01 180 08 SATL 060

T000 126S 0846E 045 R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD

T012 136S 0840E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 149S 0830E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD

T036 156S 0822E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD

T048 161S 0815E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD

T072 165S 0801E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD

T096 170S 0791E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD

T120 178S 0788E 095 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.6S 82.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 16.1S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 16.5S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 17.0S 79.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 17.8S 78.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 84.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 846E  45

0718012800 126S 846E  45



2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 280300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-28 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 280300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   280000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 84.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 13.6S 84.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 14.9S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.6S 82.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 16.1S 81.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 16.5S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 17.0S 79.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   020000Z --- 17.8S 78.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 84.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 787 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING SYMMETRICALLY AROUND A LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER. A 272224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A

RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE SATELLITE

REPRESENTATION OF TC 07S HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY-STATE FOR THE LAST 6

HOURS, AND GIVEN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES,

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED STEADY

INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF

15 TO 20 KNOTS DECREASES IN THE COMING DAY. THE SYSTEM TOOK AN

UNEXPECTED JOG TOWARD THE SOUTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE CYCLONE

IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND TAU 96, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO

DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT DIVERGE

GREATLY BEYOND TAU 72, SO THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE

JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS

18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.

//



2018-01-28 00:31

WTIO31 FMEE 280016



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/5/20172018

1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E

(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 30





7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 28/01/2018 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

24H: 29/01/2018 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

36H: 29/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 30/01/2018 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL INTENSE

60H: 30/01/2018 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 31/01/2018 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 01/02/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 02/02/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=3.5+



DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN "CENTRE NOYE DANS

LA MASSE" EVOLUE ET LAISSE APPARAITRE UN DEBUT DE FORMATION D'OEIL

SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. LA CONVECTION RESTE CEPENDANT

PREDOMINANTE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DU SYSTEME.



LA TRAJECTOIRE A PRIS UNE DIRECTION SUD-SUD-OUEST ET PLACE CEBILE

SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE, FAVORABLE A UNE

POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD QUI

SE RENFORCE DANS SA PARTIE EST, CEBILE EST PREVU POURSUITE UN

DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT. PAR LA SUITE, LE

RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE DANS SA PARTIE SUD-OUEST VA RALENTIR LE

DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE. PUIS EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT

DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN

DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE CEPENDANT UNE GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR

LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN RAISON DE LA GRANDE

VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME ET PAR

CONSEQUENT SUR LA REGION OU LE SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET

REPARTIR VERS L'EST.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE EST FAIBLE

PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT. CEPENDANT,

CEBILE TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST MOINDRE.

CELA EST D'AUTANT PLUS VRAI LORS DU RALENTISSEMENT DE CEBILE CE QUI

DEVRAIT INDUIRE L'ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME AU MOMENT DU

VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST MALGRE DES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES

ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES FAVORABLES.=



2018-01-28 00:31

WTIO30 FMEE 280016



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20172018

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL

THREE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 30





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/28 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/01/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2018/01/29 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/30 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/30 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/01/31 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5+



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CONFIGURATION EVOLVES WITH A

BEGINNING OF FORMATION OF EYE ON THE LATEST INFRARED DATA. HOWEVER

CONVECTION REMAINS PREDOMINANT IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD AND IS PLACED UNDER A WEAK

SHEAR, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, CEBILE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK

SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN

ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. AND IN THE

MIDDLE OF WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN ITS SOUTH-EAST PART ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE

INCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE

VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STOP, THE RESTART EASTWARD.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AS THE

UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS WEAK. HOWEVER, CEBILE TRANSITS ON AREAS

WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. THIS IS ALL THE MORE TRUE DURING

THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE'S TRACK WHICH SHOULD INDUCE THE STOPPING OF

THE INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT OF THE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST,

DESPITE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.=



2018-01-28 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 280005

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2018

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 004/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5  (CEBILE)  990 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 84.3 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN

SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120

NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.





FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 12 UTC:

13.8 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2018/01/29 AT 00 UTC:

14.8 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 272100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127202137

2018012718 07S CEBILE     004  01 225 06 SATL 060

T000 118S 0844E 045 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD

T012 128S 0835E 055 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    085 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD

T024 137S 0826E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD

    100 SW QD 060 NW QD

T036 145S 0816E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD

    110 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 150S 0809E 080 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD

    110 SW QD 090 NW QD

T072 152S 0801E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD

    130 SW QD 105 NW QD

T096 152S 0796E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD

    140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T120 154S 0793E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD

    145 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM



2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 272100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127202137

2018012718 07S CEBILE     004  01 225 06 SATL 060

T000 118S 0844E 045 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD

T012 128S 0835E 055 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD

T024 137S 0826E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD

T036 145S 0816E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 150S 0809E 080 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD

T072 152S 0801E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD

T096 152S 0796E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T120 154S 0793E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 14.5S 81.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 15.0S 80.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 15.2S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 15.2S 79.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 15.4S 79.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 280300 280900Z 281500 AND 282100Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 848E  35

0718012712 114S 848E  35

0718012718 118S 844E  45



2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 272100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-01-27 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 272100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 84.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 84.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   280600Z --- 12.8S 83.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 13.7S 82.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 14.5S 81.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   291800Z --- 15.0S 80.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   301800Z --- 15.2S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   311800Z --- 15.2S 79.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   011800Z --- 15.4S 79.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 84.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION SYMMETRICALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 07S, WITH OVERSHOOTING

TOPS NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION IS

DETERMINED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO

45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AS

WELL AS A 271611Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS OF 45 KNOTS IN

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WARM

WATERS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 DEGREES C, WITH

MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) THAT IS

DECREASING ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS

RESTRICTED TO THE EAST, BUT IS GOOD IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. AS THE

VWS DECREASES, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS

WHILE BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS TO ITS SOUTH.

IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE

COMPLICATED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR, BUT GLOBAL

MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS TURNS TC 07S TOWARD THE

SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A

SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH

AT TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK

THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GREATER SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE

THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.

//



2018-01-27 21:31

WTIO31 FMEE 271826



CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION

BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN

INDIEN)



0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/5/20172018

1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/01/2018 :

DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E

(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)

DEPLACEMENT:  SUD 5 KT



3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA

5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT

RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :

28 KT NE: 150 SE:  SO: 150 NO: 240

34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 60







7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE



1.B PREVISIONS :

12H: 28/01/2018 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

24H: 28/01/2018 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE

TEMPETE TROPICALE

36H: 29/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

48H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

60H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

72H: 30/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:

96H: 31/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL

120H: 01/02/2018 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE

TROPICAL



2.C COMMENTAIRES :

T=CI=3.0+



AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PRESENTE UNE FORTE

BOUFFEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. LA CONFIGURATION LEGEREMENT

CISAILLEE S'ESTOMPE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU PROFIT D'UNE CONFIGURATION

"CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE" AU COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS. CELA

SITUE ALORS LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION EN BORDURE IMMEDIATE DE LA

CONVECTION LA PLUS PROFONDE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1527UTC PERMET DE

VALIDER DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT LES 35KT DANS LA PARTIE NORD DU SYSTEME.

EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME 05 A ETE BAPTISE CEBILE PAR LE SERVICE

METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A 1700UTC.



LA TRAJECTOIRE DE CEBILE S'ORIENTE MAINTENANT SUD ET PLACE LA TEMPETE

TROPICALE MODEREE SOUS UN CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS DE

L'ORDRE DE 15KT, FAVORABLE A UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. SOUS

L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE AU SUD QUI SE RENFORCE DANS SA PARTIE EST,

CEBILE EST PREVU PRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST EN

ACCELERANT. PAR LA SUITE, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE DANS SA

PARTIE SUD-OUEST VA RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE CEBILE. PUIS EN MILIEU

DE SEMAINE, LA DORSALE FAIBLIT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-EST PERMETTANT AU

SYSTEME DE PRENDRE UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. IL RESTE UNE

GRANDE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE LUNDI EN

RAISON DE LA GRANDE VARIABILITE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU

SYSTEME ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES DETERMINISTE MAIS EGALEMENT DANS

LES PREVISIONS D'ENSEMBLE ET PAR CONSEQUENT SUR LA REGION OU LE

SYSTEME EST PREVU S'ARRETER ET REPARTIR VERS L'EST.



LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE FAIBLIT PLUS

FRANCHEMENT, PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT.

CEPENDANT, CEBILE TRANSITE SUR DES ZONES OU LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE

EST MOINDRE. CELA EST D'AUTANT PLUS VRAI LORS DU RALENTISSEMENT DE

CEBILE CE QUI DEVRAIT INDUIRE L'ARRET DE L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME

AU MOMENT DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST.=



2018-01-27 21:31

WTIO30 FMEE 271826



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20172018

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (CEBILE)



2.A POSITION 2018/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 150 SE:  SW: 150 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2018/01/28 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2018/01/28 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.0+



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS A STRONG BOOST IN THE

NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LIGHTLY SHEARED CONFIGURATION IS WEAKENING

AND PROGRESSIVELY BECOMES IN A CDO CONFIGURATION DURING LATEST

MOMENTS. THIS SITUATED THEN THE CENTER IN IMMEDIATE EDGE OF THE MOST

DEEP CONVECTION. THE 1527UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOW TO VALIDATE WINDS

REACHING UP 35KT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY,

SYSTEM 05 HAS NAMED CEBILE BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

AT 1700UTC.



CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH AND IS PLACED UNDER A SHEAR ABOUT 15KT,

ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS DATA, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM

IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE

REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE

MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. AND IN THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN

ITS SOUTH-EAST PART ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST.

THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE INCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY

MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT BETWEEN

DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STOP, THE RESTART EASTWARD.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AS THE

UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY. HOWEVER, CEBILE TRANSITS

ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. THIS IS ALL THE MORE

TRUE DURING THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE'S TRACK WHICH SHOULD INDUCE THE

STOPPING OF THE INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT OF THE TURNING TO THE

SOUTHEAST.=



2018-01-27 21:31

WTIO20 FMEE 271803

SECURITE

GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2018

AT

1800 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 003/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



GALE WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.



PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5  (CEBILE)  995 HPA

POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC

MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO

160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM

RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN

QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS  EXTENDING

UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP

TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 06 UTC:

13.1 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

24H, VALID 2018/01/28 AT 18 UTC:

14.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

NIL.=



2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS51 PGTW 271500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127131537

2018012712 07S SEVEN      003  01 190 07 SATL 020

T000 117S 0845E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T012 128S 0840E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD

T024 138S 0830E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD

T036 145S 0821E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034

    075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD

T048 151S 0811E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034

    085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD

T072 154S 0801E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD

    135 SW QD 075 NW QD

T096 156S 0795E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD

    140 SW QD 095 NW QD

T120 158S 0791E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD

    145 SW QD 105 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT



2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS51 PGTW 271500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127131537

2018012712 07S SEVEN      003  01 190 07 SATL 020

T000 117S 0845E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T012 128S 0840E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD

T024 138S 0830E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD

T036 145S 0821E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD

T048 151S 0811E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD

T072 154S 0801E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD

T096 156S 0795E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD

T120 158S 0791E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 14.5S 82.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.1S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 15.4S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 15.6S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 15.8S 79.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 84.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS

20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 846E  35

0718012712 117S 845E  35



2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS31 PGTW 271500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-27 14:16

WTXS31 PGTW 271500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   271200Z --- NEAR 11.7S 84.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 84.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   280000Z --- 12.8S 84.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 13.8S 83.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 14.5S 82.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 15.1S 81.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   301200Z --- 15.4S 80.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   311200Z --- 15.6S 79.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 15.8S 79.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 84.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM

MAINTAINED A BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE

LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY

CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 270858Z 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS AND

FROM THE CURRENT STORM MOTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES

OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF

MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) NORTHERLY VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY

STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE VWS

VECTOR. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE STR

TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THIS

STR EXTENSION BUILDS. AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 07S IS FORECAST TO

SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST

COMPETES FOR STEERING. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE

TRACKS POLEWARD, PROMOTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU

120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT

WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, IT SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS

TOWARD THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING AN OVERALL LOW

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z,

280900Z AND 281500Z.//



2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 270900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127081859

2018012706 07S SEVEN      002A 01 200 03 SATL 040

T000 110S 0846E 035 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD

T012 120S 0844E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD

T024 132S 0837E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD

T036 141S 0826E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034

    075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD

T048 145S 0817E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034

    085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD

T072 148S 0805E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD

    135 SW QD 075 NW QD

T096 148S 0797E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD

    140 SW QD 095 NW QD

T120 148S 0792E 090 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD

    145 SW QD 105 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT



2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 270900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127081859

2018012706 07S SEVEN      002A 01 200 03 SATL 040

T000 110S 0846E 035 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD

T012 120S 0844E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD

T024 132S 0837E 045 R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD

T036 141S 0826E 050 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 060 NW QD

T048 145S 0817E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD

T072 148S 0805E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 075 NW QD

T096 148S 0797E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD

T120 148S 0792E 090 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 160 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 103S 826E  30

0718012612 103S 831E  30

0718012618 105S 843E  30

0718012700 107S 847E  30

0718012706 110S 846E  35



2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 270900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-01-27 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 270900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 84.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 84.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   271800Z --- 12.0S 84.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   280600Z --- 13.2S 83.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   281800Z --- 14.1S 82.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   290600Z --- 14.5S 81.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   300600Z --- 14.8S 80.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   310600Z --- 14.8S 79.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   010600Z --- 14.8S 79.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

270900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 84.6E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH

FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE POSITION HAS BEEN

RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION

BASED ON A REASSESSMENT OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

HOWEVER, THIS RELOCATION HAS NOT RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO

THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION

CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07S HAS

TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING

INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE

SYSTEM. AS THIS PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO TRANSITION

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TC 07S WILL TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY

WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING

FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE,

RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND IMPROVING POLEWARD

OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE

GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND THE UKMET MODEL DEPICT

TC 07S BASICALLY CONTINUING POLEWARD, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO

THE SOUTH NEVER BECOMING FULLY ESTABLISHED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING

MECHANISM. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN

FOLLOWED BY NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE

CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,

ALTHOUGH OFFSET SLIGHTLY FROM THE LOWER PROBABILITY NAVGEM AND UKMET

SOLUTIONS. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE

NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED

RANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//



2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 270300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127012348

2018012700 07S SEVEN      001  01 075 07 SATL 050

T000 098S 0853E 030

T012 106S 0858E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD

T024 118S 0852E 040 R034 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD

T036 128S 0842E 045 R034 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD

T048 136S 0833E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034

    080 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD

T072 143S 0819E 070 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050

    035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD

    095 SW QD 075 NW QD

T096 146S 0807E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 125 SE QD

    110 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 146S 0794E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD

    120 SW QD 090 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT



2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 270300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 07S SIO 180127012348

2018012700 07S SEVEN      001  01 075 07 SATL 050

T000 098S 0853E 030

T012 106S 0858E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD

T024 118S 0852E 040 R034 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD

T036 128S 0842E 045 R034 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD

T048 136S 0833E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD

T072 143S 0819E 070 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD

T096 146S 0807E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 146S 0794E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 13.6S 83.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 14.3S 81.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 14.6S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 14.6S 79.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 85.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.

//

0718012412  93S 792E  15

0718012418  93S 795E  15

0718012500  93S 798E  20

0718012506  93S 801E  25

0718012512  96S 807E  30

0718012518  98S 814E  30

0718012600 102S 821E  30

0718012606 106S 826E  30

0718012612 105S 832E  30

0718012618 100S 846E  30

0718012700  98S 853E  30



2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 270300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260121ZJAN2018//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E



2018-01-27 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 270300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260121ZJAN2018//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 13.6S 83.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   300000Z --- 14.3S 81.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   310000Z --- 14.6S 80.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 14.6S 79.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 85.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION COVERING UP A LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS BASED ON A 262147z MHS 89 GHZ SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL

BANDING WRAPPING UNDER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF

T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. IN ADDITION, A PARTIAL

261633Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER

LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE

CONVECTIVE MASS WITH FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL SHEAR ADJACENT TO THE

SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL

INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT

ABOUT TAU 24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE BUILDING IN TO

THE NORTHEAST. TC 07S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24

DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120.

PAST TAU 96, TC 07S WILL SLOW DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE

BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC

MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST

TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND

SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260130).//