Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ILEANA-18
in Mexico

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2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 070233 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF EARLIER MICROWAVE

IMAGES INDICATE THAT ILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER

AMORPHOUS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE DISTINCT LOW CLOUD

ELEMENTS IDENTIFIED EARLIER TODAY IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ARE NO LONGER

EVIDENT.  BASED ON THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS

STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

TAFB AND SAB.



THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ILEANA

DISSIPATING IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS, AS A RESULT OF LARGER HURRICANE

JOHN'S UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.  THE UKMET, HOWEVER, MAINTAINS

ILEANA AS A SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A LITTLE LONGER...ABOUT 36

HOURS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SIDES

WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY SOLUTION SHOWING THE CYCLONE EITHER

BEING ABSORBED BY JOHN, OR DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND IS

ALSO BASED ON A SIMILAR SCENARIO REFLECTED IN THE LGEM STATISTICAL

INTENSITY MODEL OUTPUT.



THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR, BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE

NORTHWESTWARD AND LITTLE FASTER...305/17 KT.  ILEANA IS FORECAST TO

MOVE BETWEEN HURRICANE JOHN TO THE WEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE

EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO UNTIL THE

CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO

THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN MODEL

CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 070233

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



GOES-16 visible satellite imagery and a couple of earlier microwave

images indicate that Ileana's cloud pattern has become rather

amorphous during the past several hours, and the distinct low cloud

elements identified earlier today in visible imagery are no longer

evident.  Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, the

initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, which is

still a little higher than the subjective intensity estimates from

TAFB and SAB.



The global and hurricane models are in good agreement with Ileana

dissipating in less than 24 hours, as a result of larger Hurricane

John's upper tropospheric outflow.  The UKMET, however, maintains

Ileana as a shallow tropical cyclone for a little longer...about 36

hours prior to dissipation.  The official intensity forecast sides

with the model majority solution showing the cyclone either

being absorbed by John, or dissipating in about 24 hours, and is

also based on a similar scenario reflected in the LGEM statistical

intensity model output.



The initial motion remains a bit unclear, but still appears to be

northwestward and little faster...305/17 kt.  Ileana is forecast to

move between Hurricane John to the west and a deep-layer ridge

extending over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico until the

cyclone dissipates.  The NHC forecast is again nudged slightly to

the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCN model

consensus.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 062034 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING FOR

ILEANA.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING

ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF JOHN MUCH SOONER

THAN ANTICIPATED.  IN FACT, ILEANA IS LOOKING MORE LIKE AN OUTER

BAND OF JOHN AT THIS TIME.  NONETHELESS, A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS

INDICATED THAT ILEANA IS STILL A SEPARATE SYSTEM TO THE

EAST-NORTHEAST OF JOHN AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY

OF 55 KT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF ILEANA TODAY, THE

PREVIOUS NHC SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVERSED.  ILEANA

IS NO LONGER PREDICTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE, AND THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED BY JOHN'S

CIRCULATION IN 24-36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME MODELS,

SUCH AS THE HWRF, GFS, AND ECMWF DEPICT ILEANA'S DEMISE EVEN SOONER

THAN THAT.



SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ILEANA HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED,

IT IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK A CENTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN

UNCERTAIN 305/15 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE AND THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL

TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT A LITTLE TO

THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE

SCATTEROMETER DATA.



THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IS

DISCONTINUED.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS ALSO DISCONTINUED FOR ILEANA, BUT A



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 062034

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



There have been significant changes to the forecast reasoning for

Ileana.  Recent satellite imagery suggest that the system is being

adversely affected by the large circulation of John much sooner

than anticipated.  In fact, Ileana is looking more like an outer

band of John at this time.  Nonetheless, a recent ASCAT overpass

indicated that Ileana is still a separate system to the

east-northeast of John and continues to support a current intensity

of 55 kt.  However given the evolution of Ileana today, the

previous NHC short-term intensity forecast is reversed.  Ileana

is no longer predicted to become a hurricane, and the tropical

cyclone is likely to dissipate or become absorbed by John's

circulation in 24-36 hours. It should be noted that some models,

such as the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF depict Ileana's demise even sooner

than that.



Since the cloud pattern of Ileana has become rather disorganized,

it is difficult to track a center and the initial motion is an

uncertain 305/15 kt.  The cyclone should move between a mid-level

ridge and the circulation of John until dissipation.  The official

track forecast is a little left of the previous one, but a little to

the right of the track model consensus.



The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the

scatterometer data.



The hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Mexico is

discontinued.  The tropical storm watch for the extreme southern

Baja California peninsula is also discontinued for Ileana, but a

watch for this same general are may soon be required for John.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/2100Z 17.0N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 061439 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



ILEANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER,

WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE

ACAPULCO RADAR HAVE SHOWN SOME EYEWALL STRUCTURE, AT LEAST AT

MID-LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH CONVENTIONAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB

AND SAB PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 45 KT, THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SATCON ESTIMATES

FROM UW-CIMSS.  SINCE ILEANA WILL BE IN A MOIST, LOW-SHEAR, AND WARM

WATER ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A

HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THEREAFTER, THE INFLUENCE

OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED

TO BEGIN HAVING AN ADVERSE EFFECT ON ILEANA.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD

BEGIN WEAKENING LATER ON TUESDAY, AND DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED

BY JOHN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE

ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.



ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR ABOUT

310/15 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE

PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE NORTH OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE

OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 061439

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



Ileana continues to produce very deep convection near its center,

with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Microwave imagery and the

Acapulco radar have shown some eyewall structure, at least at

mid-levels.  Although conventional Dvorak classifications from TAFB

and SAB provided intensity estimates of only 45 kt, the advisory

intensity is kept at 55 kt in better agreement with SATCON estimates

from UW-CIMSS.  Since Ileana will be in a moist, low-shear, and warm

water environment, the system is likely to strengthen into a

hurricane within 12 hours or so, with some additional

intensification through Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, the influence

of the much larger circulation of John to the southwest is expected

to begin having an adverse effect on Ileana.  The system should

begin weakening later on Tuesday, and dissipate or become absorbed

by John on Wednesday. This is the scenario that is depicted by the

ECMWF and GFS global model guidance.



Ileana continues to move briskly toward the northwest or about

310/15 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to move between a

mid-level ridge and the circulation of John for the next couple of

days.  The official track forecast is a little to the left of the

previous one but a little north of the latest multi-model consensus.



No changes to the watches and warnings are required at this time.

Although the core of strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore

of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the

right of track could bring stronger winds onshore, particularly in

the area where the hurricane watch has been posted.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/1500Z 16.3N 101.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070553 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

100 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2018



...ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.0N 106.0W

ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST.  ILEANA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO THE

INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN TO THE

SOUTHWEST, AND THE SMALL CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (110 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070553

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018



...ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.0N 106.0W

ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward

the west-northwest is expected later today.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the

influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the

southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions

of the warning area.  However, tropical storm conditions will

rapidly diminish later this morning.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts

of 5 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may cause flash

flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070233

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...ILEANA A LITTLE WEAKER...

...STILL MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE

COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.0N 104.9W

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 104.9 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a

west-northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence

of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the southwest,

and to dissipate by late Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the

warning area through early Tuesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts

of 5 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may cause flash

flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070233 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...ILEANA A LITTLE WEAKER...

......................................................................

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    .....S

    ....ST

    ...STI

    ..STIL

    .STILL

    MOVING

    PARALLEL

    AND

    JUST

    OFFSHORE

    OF

    THE

COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.0N 104.9W

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

......................................................................

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    TECPAN

    DE

    GALEANA

    TO

    CABO

    CORRIENTES

    MEXICO



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST.  ILEANA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H), AND A

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062338 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

700 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...ILEANA MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST.  ILEANA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND A

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE

MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND TO

DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062338

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 9A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

700 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...ILEANA MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.0 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a

west-northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence of the

much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the southwest, and to

dissipate by late Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the

warning area through early Tuesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062034 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...ILEANA NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

..................COULD DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.0N 103.3W

ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM

PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO, AND THE TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FROM LOS BARILLES TO TODOS SANTOS MEXICO.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

................ TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST.  ILEANA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H).  A

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE

MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND TO DISSIPATE

BY LATE TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062034

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...ILEANA NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

...COULD DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.0N 103.3W

ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from

Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico, and the Tropical Storm

Watch from Los Barilles to Todos Santos Mexico.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.3 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A

west-northwestward motion is expected through Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence of the

much larger circulation of John to the southwest, and to dissipate

by late Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the

warning area through early Tuesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061739 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

100 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...RAINBANDS OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.7N 102.7W

ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061739

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 8A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

100 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...RAINBANDS OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.7N 102.7W

ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 102.7 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward

the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a continued

west-northwestward track at a reduced forward speed into Wednesday.

On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel

to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through

early Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Ileana is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later

today.  Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and

Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening

due to its proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane

John located to its southwest.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight

and early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within

portions of the warning area through early Tuesday.  Tropical storm

conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja

California Sur by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061439

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...ILEANA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W

ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.9 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn

toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a continued

west-northwestward track at a reduced forward speed into Wednesday.

On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel

to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through

Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Ileana is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later

today.  Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and

Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening

due to its proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane

John located to its southwest.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight

and early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within

portions of the warning area through early Tuesday.  Tropical storm

conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja

California Sur by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061439 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...ILEANA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W

ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061141

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

700 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...ILEANA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...





SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.7N 101.2W

ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning

eastward from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 101.2 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general

motion is expected to continue into Wednesday.  On the forecast

track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and just

offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and

Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday morning.

Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and Ileana is

forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening due to its

proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane John

located to its southwest.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight

and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the

warning area late today through early Tuesday.  Tropical storm

conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja

California Sur Wednesday morning.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061141 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

700 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...ILEANA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...





SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.7N 101.2W

ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

EASTWARD FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060858 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...ILEANA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A

HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...

.........................................................HURRICANE AND

    TROPICAL

    STORM

    WATCHES

    ISSUED...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 100.3W

ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA

SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN

ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES

TO TODO SANTOS, INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.





SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

....................................................... PUNTA SAN

    TELMO

    TO

    PLAYA

    PERULA

    MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

....................................................... LAZARO

    CARDENAS

    TO

    CABO

    CORRIENTES

    MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

....................................................... LOS BARILLES

    TO

    TODO

    SANTOS

    MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 070232

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  18 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z

AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.1W



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z



....

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 062033

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM

PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FROM LOS BARILLES TO TODOS SANTOS MEXICO.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W AT 06/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  30SW  60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W AT 06/2100Z

AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.5W



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z



...

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 061438 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z

AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.2W



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 061438

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z

AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.2W



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 101.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN32 PHNC 070400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 010

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   070000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 104.1W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 104.1W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 19.3N 107.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 19 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 20.8N 111.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

070400Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 105.2W.

TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1151 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (JOHN)

WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN32 PHNC 062200

WARNING    ATCG MIL 11E NEP 180806221229

2018080618 11E ILEANA     009  03 305 15 SATL 030

T000 166N 1025W 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD

T012 182N 1058W 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD

T024 195N 1090W 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD

AMP

    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 009

1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 009

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   061800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 102.5W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 102.5W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 18.2N 105.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   071800Z --- 19.5N 109.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

062200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 103.6W.

TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1249 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1118080306 110N 895W  20

1118080318 110N 895W  20

1118080400 112N 911W  20

1118080406 115N 924W  20

1118080412 119N 936W  20

1118080418 123N 945W  25

1118080500 128N 955W  25

1118080506 130N 963W  30

1118080512 133N 971W  30

1118080518 136N 979W  40

1118080600 141N 988W  45

1118080606 149N1000W  50

1118080606 149N1000W  50

1118080612 158N1012W  55

1118080612 158N1012W  55

1118080618 166N1025W  55

1118080618 166N1025W  55

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN32 PHNC 061000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 007

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   060600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 99.7W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 99.7W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   061800Z --- 16.5N 102.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 18.5N 105.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   071800Z --- 20.3N 107.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 21.6N 110.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

061000Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 100.6W.

TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1438 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN32 PHNC 061600

WARNING    ATCG MIL 11E NEP 180806150259

2018080612 11E ILEANA     008  03 310 15 SATL 025

T000 158N 1012W 055 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD

T012 178N 1042W 065 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD

T024 193N 1072W 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD

T036 205N 1095W 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD

T048 215N 1116W 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 008

1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 008

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   061200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 101.2W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 101.2W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 17.8N 104.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 19.3N 107.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 20.5N 109.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 21.5N 111.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

061600Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 102.2W.

TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1332 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1118080306 110N 895W  20

1118080318 110N 895W  20

1118080400 112N 911W  20

1118080406 115N 924W  20

1118080412 119N 936W  20

1118080418 123N 945W  25

1118080500 128N 955W  25

1118080506 130N 963W  30

1118080512 133N 971W  30

1118080518 136N 979W  40

1118080600 141N 988W  45

1118080606 149N1000W  50

1118080606 149N1000W  50

1118080612 158N1012W  55

1118080612 158N1012W  55

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 060859 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTING OF SOME CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES OF -85 TO -90 DEG C NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)

FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT, AND THE ACAPULCO, MEXICO, RADAR

INDICATES THAT A BANDED EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTER OF

THE CDO. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF

T3.6/57 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.



ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM JOHN, AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE

IS NOW 310/15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

TRACK OTHER THAN TO NUDGE THE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT,

CLOSER TO MEXICO, DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION BASED

ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR DATA. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOHN AND A DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO UNTIL DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURS IN

ABOUT 72 HOURS, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA

AND FSSE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS.



THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS, AND THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR

COULD BE LOWER THAN THAT SINCE MOST OF THE STRONGER OUTFLOW FROM

TROPICAL STORM JOHN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ILEANA. BASED ON THE

EXPECTED LOWER SHEAR CONDITIONS, A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SSTS



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 060859

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



A strong burst of deep convection consisting of some cloud top

temperatures of -85 to -90 deg C near the center has developed

during the past several hours. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO)

feature has developed as a result, and the Acapulco, Mexico, radar

indicates that a banded eye feature has developed in the center of

the CDO. Based on the radar data and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of

T3.6/57 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.



Ileana has begun to accelerate around the eastern periphery of

rapidly developing Tropical Storm John, and initial motion estimate

is now 310/15 kt. Little change was made to the previous forecast

track other than to nudge the forecast a little more to the right,

closer to Mexico, due to the more eastward initial position based

on the aforementioned radar data. Ileana is expected to continue

moving northwestward between Tropical Storm John and a deep-layer

ridge over Mexico. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement

on this track scenario until dissipation or absorption occurs in

about 72 hours, and the new forecast track lies close to the HCCA

and FSSE consensus track model solutions.



The shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt over the next 24

hours, and the global model fields actually indicate that the shear

could be lower than that since most of the stronger outflow from

Tropical Storm John will remain north of Ileana. Based on the

expected lower shear conditions, a very moist atmosphere, SSTs

near 30 deg C, and the much improved internal structure noted in

radar data, Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane within the

next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the upward

trend of the consensus models FSSE and HCCA, but is a little lower

and closer to the IVCN intensity consensus model.



The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official

forecast has been expanded to the northeast based on recent ASCAT

wind data. Although the core of strongest winds are forecast to

remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight

deviation to the right of track and/or strong localized funneling

effects would bring hurricane-force winds onshore. As a result,

the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta

San Telmo to Playa Perula.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0900Z 15.2N 100.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ31 KNHC 060858

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...ILEANA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A

HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 100.3W

ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta

San Telmo to Playa Perula.  A Tropical Storm Watch has also been

issued for the southern tip of Baja California Sur from Los Barilles

to Todo Santos, including Cabo San Lucas.





SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located by the Acapulco radar near latitude 15.2 North, longitude

100.3 West.  Ileana is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28

km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into

Wednesday. On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to

move parallel to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern

Mexico through Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the

next day or so, and Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane by

Tuesday morning.  Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday

night, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon

or evening due to its proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John

located to its west.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight

and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the

warning area late today through early Tuesday.  Tropical storm

conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja

California Sur Wednesday morning.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 060858 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA

SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN

ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES

TO TODO SANTOS...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.3W AT 06/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 060858

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA

SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN

ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES

TO TODO SANTOS...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.3W AT 06/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.3W AT 06/0900Z

AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  99.7W



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ61 KNHC 052239

TCUEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

540 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES.



AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WILL BE ISSUED AT

700 PM CDT (0000 UTC).



..

FORECASTER BERG



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 060251 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER

BEGINNING AROUND 2200 UTC.  A SECOND ASCAT PASS EARLIER THIS

AFTERNOON SHOWED WINDS OF 40-45 KT, WHILE SATCON ESTIMATES FROM

UW-CIMSS WERE A LITTLE ABOVE 50 KT.  GIVEN THESE DATA, ILEANA'S

MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 KT, WHICH IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL ENVIRONMENT

FOR STRENGTHENING, BUT THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER VERY

WARM WATERS OF 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THROUGH A MOISTURE-LADEN

ENVIRONMENT. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING, WITH SOME, SUCH AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS,

BRINGING ILEANA NEAR OR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO.  ON

THE FLIP SIDE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ILEANA OPENING UP INTO A

TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN IN 36-48 HOURS.

GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS, THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS INCREASED ONLY A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A

48-HOUR FORECAST IS STILL PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY, BUT IF THE GFS

AND ECMWF ARE RIGHT, THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.



ILEANA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN

INITIAL MOTION OF 290/11 KT.  ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION WITH A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE

CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOHN AND LARGE-SCALE RIDGING

OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK

FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE PROJECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 060251

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center

beginning around 2200 UTC.  A second ASCAT pass earlier this

afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from

UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt.  Given these data, Ileana's

maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt.  The shear is forecast to

be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment

for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very

warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden

environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional

strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models,

bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so.  On

the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a

trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours.

Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity

forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory.  A

48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS

and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time.



Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an

initial motion of 290/11 kt.  Additional acceleration with a turn

toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the

cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging

over Mexico and the southern United States.  The updated NHC track

forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous

advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS,

ECMWF, and HCCA solutions.



The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official

forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a

result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm

Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  Even though

Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of

the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and

interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor

the progress of the storm.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0300Z 14.3N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 052034 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY, WITH A

FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SHAPE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.  DATA FROM A

RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS EMBEDDED ABOUT IN

THE MIDDLE OF A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE.  THE SCATTEROMETER DATA

INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KT, AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM

TAFB AND SAB GAVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 45 KT,

RESPECTIVELY.  BLENDING THESE VARIOUS ESTIMATES YIELDS A CURRENT

INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT, AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THUS BEING

NAMED.  SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING CYCLONE IS

SITUATED NOT FAR TO THE WEST OF ILEANA.  THIS LARGER SYSTEM IS

FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT CYCLONE

IN A FEW DAYS, AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE

NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION.  THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN

BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.



THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION THAN THERE WAS

EARLIER TODAY, AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/9 KT.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,

ILEANA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND

NORTHEAST AND THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS WEST AND

SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF

THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST

HCCA FORECAST TRACK.



INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 052034

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



The cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a

fairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery.  Data from a

recent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in

the middle of a small CDO-like feature.  The scatterometer data

indicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from

TAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt,

respectively.  Blending these various estimates yields a current

intensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being

named.  Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear

environment for the next couple of days, some additional

strengthening is forecast.  However a strengthening cyclone is

situated not far to the west of Ileana.  This larger system is

forecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone

in a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the

northern side of the larger circulation.  That is the scenario shown

by the official intensity forecast.



There is more confidence in the center position than there was

earlier today, and the estimated initial motion is

west-northwestward or 285/9 kt.  Over the next couple of days,

Ileana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and

northeast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and

southwest.  The official track forecast is on the southern side of

the track guidance envelope.  It is also very close to the latest

HCCA forecast track.



Interests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico

should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties

in the forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/2100Z 13.6N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060548 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

100 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018



...ILEANA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL

COAST OF MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.6N 99.7W

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST.  ILEANA IS

MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H).  AN

ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST

TRACK, ILEANA'S CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE

OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TODAY,



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060548

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

100 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...ILEANA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL

COAST OF MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.6N 99.7W

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 99.7 West.  Ileana is

moving faster toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  An

additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the

northwest is expected over the next day or so.  On the forecast

track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and offshore

of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast through today,

but Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night or Wednesday

due to its proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John located to

its west and southwest.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning

area late Monday through early Tuesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060250 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.3N 99.3W

ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM

LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST.  ILEANA IS

MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H).  AN

ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST

TRACK, ILEANA'S CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE

OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060250

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.3N 99.3W

ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from

Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 99.3 West.  Ileana is

moving faster toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  An

additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the

northwest is expected over the next day or so.  On the forecast

track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and offshore

of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Additional strengthening is forecast through Monday, but Ileana is

forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night or Wednesday due its

proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John to its west and

southwest.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning

area late Monday through early Tuesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052352 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

700 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER...

......................................................................

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    .....T

    ....TR

    ...TRO

    ..TROP

    .TROPI

    TROPIC

    ROPICA

    OPICAL

    STORM

    WATCH

    IN

    EFFECT

    FOR

    THE

    SOUTHWESTERN

    COAST

    OF

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.9N 98.9W

ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

......................................................................

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    LAZARO

    CARDENAS

    TO

    CABO

    CORRIENTES

    MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO

48 HOURS.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST.  ILEANA IS



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052352

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

700 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.9N 98.9W

ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to

48 hours.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.9 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn to

the northwest is forecast tonight with an additional increase in

forward speed expected over the next few days.  On the forecast

track, the center of Ileana should move parallel to, and offshore

of, the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is expected through

Monday, but the storm is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday as it

comes under the influence of a larger cyclone to its west and

southwest.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch

area late Monday and Tuesday.



RAINFALL:  Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of

Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated

maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night.  These rains may

cause flash flooding.



SURF:  Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of

the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052033 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 98.1W

ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ILEANA.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST.  ILEANA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H).  A TURN TO

THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

CENTER OF ILEANA SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO, AND OFFSHORE OF, THE

COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.



SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE

INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME

STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THE STORM IS FORECAST

TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A

LARGER CYCLONE TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHWEST.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052033

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.6N 98.1W

ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico

should monitor the progress of Ileana.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was

located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 98.1 West.  Ileana is

moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to

the northwest is forecast tonight with some increase in forward

speed expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the

center of Ileana should move parallel to, and offshore of, the

coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.



Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have

increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some

strengthening is expected through Monday, but the storm is forecast

to dissipate by Wednesday as it comes under the influence of a

larger cyclone to its west and southwest.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 060250 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM

LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  99.3W AT 06/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  99.3W AT 06/0300Z

AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  98.7W



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 060250

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM

LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  99.3W AT 06/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  99.3W AT 06/0300Z

AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  98.7W



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  99.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BERG



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 052033

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ILEANA.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  98.1W AT 05/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  98.1W AT 05/2100Z

AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  97.7W



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.

34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.

34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N  98.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z



..

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPN32 PHNC 060400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 006

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   060000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 98.7W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 98.7W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 15.3N 101.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 17.2N 103.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 19.1N 106.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 20.9N 108.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

060400Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 99.5W.

TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1512 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

060000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND

070400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31

PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (JOHN)

WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPN32 PHNC 052200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 005

   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   051800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 97.7W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 97.7W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 14.5N 100.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   061800Z --- 16.2N 102.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 17.9N 104.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   071800Z --- 19.2N 106.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

052200Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 98.5W.

TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1571 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND

062200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31

PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO

BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A SMALL CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP

CONVECTION, WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN

SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30

KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND

SAB.



SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL NOT EASY TO LOCATE, THE INITIAL MOTION IS

A RATHER UNCERTAIN 290/10 KT.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR

THE SYSTEM ARE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING

CYCLONE TO THE WEST.  IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INTERACTION

WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME

OF THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKS ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE IN THE 2-3 DAY

TIME FRAME.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS

ONE BUT NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THIS IS

CLOSE TO THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH, HCCA, TRACK.



THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE THAT THE

CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF ELEVEN-E WILL BECOME DOMINANT.  IN

FACT, THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL ABSORB THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT THIS

ABSORPTION WILL OCCUR SEVERAL DAYS LATER, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS.  IF THE WESTERN CIRCULATION DOES

NOT BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM, THEN ELEVEN-E COULD STRENGTHEN MORE

THAN INDICATED HERE, AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 051436

TCDEP1



Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone

is gradually becoming better organized.  The center is estimated to

be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep

convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern

semicircle of the circulation.  The initial intensity is set at 30

kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and

SAB.



Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is

a rather uncertain 290/10 kt.  The primary steering mechanisms for

the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing

cyclone to the west.  It is not clear just how much interaction

will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some

of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day

time frame.  The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous

one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope.  This is

close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track.



The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the

circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant.  In

fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the

tropical cyclone within a day or so.  The ECMWF indicates that this

absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast

calls for dissipation in 3-4 days.  If the western circulation does

not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more

than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance.



Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico

should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties

in the forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/1500Z 13.5N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  06/0000Z 14.1N  98.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 050850 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE

EARLY MORNING, BUT THE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE SHEARED FROM THE

NORTH. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z REVEALED THAT THE

CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ELONGATED AND HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTH,

CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. THE MAXIMUM BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT

DATA WERE AROUND 30 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT

THAT VALUE.



LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST,

HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS

ALL FORECAST THAT A DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY

AND QUICKLY BECOME THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE

DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED IN THE OTHER

SYSTEM'S LARGER CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT

AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHEN OR WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. ON ONE HAND,

THE GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE LATER

THIS MORNING, WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS TWO DISTINCT CYCLONES THROUGH 96

HOURS. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS, THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO

CYCLONES IS AFFECTING THE TRACKERS USED TO OBTAIN TRACK AND

INTENSITY INFORMATION FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND MOST OF THE

DYNAMICAL TRACKER OUTPUT CAN NOT BE CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE,

ESPECIALLY AT 48 H AND BEYOND.



ASSUMING THE DEPRESSION PERSISTS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS,

THE ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS APPEAR TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE

SOLUTIONS, WITH BOTH SHOWING THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 050850

TCDEP1



Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



Convection associated with the depression has increased through the

early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the

north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the

center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south,

closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT

data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at

that value.



Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast,

however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models

all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today

and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the

depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other

system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement

among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand,

the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later

this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96

hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two

cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and

intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the

dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative,

especially at 48 h and beyond.



Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days,

the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise

solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating

northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level

ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track

forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models

and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based

primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker

output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts.

Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the

depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than

currently indicated.



Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected

to remain offshore the coast of Mexico.  However, given the low

confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,

interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should

monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or

the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/0900Z 13.0N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  05/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ31 KNHC 051436

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 97.3W

ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19

KM/H).  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW

DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME

A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.



....

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ31 KNHC 050850

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.0N 96.9W

ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19

KM/H). THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW

DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.



....

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 051435

TCMEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018



INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  97.3W AT 05/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  97.3W AT 05/1500Z

AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  96.8W



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.1N  98.8W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  97.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z



..

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-06 06:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 050849

TCMEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018



INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  96.9W AT 05/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  96.9W AT 05/0900Z

AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  96.4W



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  96.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z



..

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 050238 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018



AFTER HAVING A SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION EARLIER

TODAY, THE FINAL GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE

THE CYCLONE'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER POPPING OUT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN

EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. SINCE THAT TIME, THE REMAINING

CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED,

APPARENTLY DUE TO ENHANCED WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LINEAR BAND

OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.



THIS STRUCTURAL DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER COMPLICATES WHAT

WAS ALREADY A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE DEPRESSION

INTERACTING WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM LOCATED TO ITS WEST. THE 18Z

GFS DOESN'T HAVE MUCH OF A REPRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION, AND IT

IS QUICKLY LOST IN THE MODEL INTEGRATION. THE LATEST HWRF FIELDS

SHOW THE VORTEX BEING ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE

DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS, AND THE HMON SHOWS THE

SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z

RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MAINTAIN THE DEPRESSION INTO DAYS 4 AND

5, RESPECTIVELY. IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE CURRENT TRENDS, THE NEW

INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING BUT AT A SLOWER

RATE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE WINNING OUT SO

FAR OVER THE WARM SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT DAY 4, BUT IT

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CYCLONE DISSIPATED MUCH SOONER THAN



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 050238

TCDEP1



Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018



After having a somewhat impressive satellite presentation earlier

today, the final GOES-16 visible images showed what appeared to be

the cyclone's low-level center popping out from the northwestern

edge of the convective canopy. Since that time, the remaining

convection south and east of the center has become less organized,

apparently due to enhanced wind shear associated with a linear band

of convection to the northwest of the cyclone.



This structural degradation of the system further complicates what

was already a low-confidence forecast due to the depression

interacting with the developing system located to its west. The 18Z

GFS doesn't have much of a representation of the depression, and it

is quickly lost in the model integration. The latest HWRF fields

show the vortex being absorbed into the circulation of the

disturbance to the west after 24 hours, and the HMON shows the

system dissipating in 2 to 3 days. On the other hand, the 12Z

runs of the ECMWF and UKMET maintain the depression into days 4 and

5, respectively. In an effort to maintain some continuity with the

previous forecast while acknowledging the current trends, the new

intensity forecast still shows some strengthening but at a slower

rate given that the upper-level winds appear to be winning out so

far over the warm SSTs. The official forecast carries the tropical

cyclone through 72 hours with dissipation shown at day 4, but it

would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated much sooner than

indicated here.



The initial motion estimate is a somewhat more confident 295/10

given that the center was exposed right around 00Z. The track

forecast reasoning has not changed, as the small cyclone should be

steered west-northwestward by a large ridge to its north and the

aforementioned disturbance to the west, which the model guidance

suggests will strengthen quickly during the next couple of days.

The new NHC forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one and

is close to a blend of the ECMWF and UKMET models.



Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected

to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low

confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,

interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should

monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or

the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/0300Z 13.0N  95.9W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  05/1200Z 13.4N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH

 24H  06/0000Z 14.2N  99.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Brennan



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 042034 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE FAR

EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED

THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THE FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW

PRESSURE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A DISTINCT CURVED

BAND.  BASED ON THESE CRITERIA, THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT IN

ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.



BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS CONGEALED SO QUICKLY, THE INITIAL MOTION IS

UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE'S FUTURE

MOTION WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC

RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND ITS PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED

ABOUT 450 N MI TO THE WEST.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A

NEARLY CONSTANT SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO

THE RIDGE.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN TO SLINGSHOT

AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM TO ITS WEST.

MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL.

THE GFS BARELY DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW FROM THE GET-GO, AND THE HWRF

DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

BINARY INTERACTION.  AS A RESULT, THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

MATCHES THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET, THE ONLY TWO MODELS

WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT GRASP ON THE SITUATION.



ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF

29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 042034

TCDEP1



Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018



Satellite images indicate that the disturbance located over the far

eastern Pacific has become significantly better organized

throughout the day, with the formation of a well-defined low

pressure center and deep convection organized in a distinct curved

band.  Based on these criteria, the system is being designated as a

tropical depression, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt in

accordance with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.



Because the system has congealed so quickly, the initial motion is

uncertain but estimated to be 285/11 kt.  The cyclone's future

motion will ultimately be dictated by a large mid-tropospheric

ridge to its north and its proximity to another disturbance located

about 450 n mi to the west.  A west-northwestward motion at a

nearly constant speed is expected during the next 2-3 days due to

the ridge.  After that time, the cyclone could begin to slingshot

around the northern side of the larger weather system to its west.

Many of the track models are not handling the depression very well;

the GFS barely depicts a surface low from the get-go, and the HWRF

does not appear to be accounting sufficiently for the possibility of

binary interaction.  As a result, the NHC official track forecast

matches the consensus of the ECMWF and UKMET, the only two models

which appear to have a decent grasp on the situation.



Although the depression will be moving over very warm waters of

29-30 degrees Celsius over the next 2-3 days, the upper-level wind

environment may not be ideal due to possible outflow from the larger

disturbance to the west.  As a result, the official intensity

forecast is not too aggressive and is essentially close to the ICON

intensity consensus.  Even though the ECMWF and UKMET were used for

the track forecast, the two models disagree on the cyclone's

ultimate demise.  The ECMWF has the system absorbed by the other

disturbance by day 4, while the UKMET keeps it distinct and holds it

just beyond the forecast period.  As a compromise, the official

forecast shows dissipation or absorption by day 5, but the

confidence in this forecast is low.



Based on the forecast, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to

remain offshore the coast of Mexico.  However, only a slight

deviation in the forecast track or an increase in size could bring

those winds closer to the coast, and interests along the southern

and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the

depression.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/2100Z 12.4N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

 12H  05/0600Z 12.9N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  05/1800Z 13.6N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ31 KNHC 050237

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018



...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.0N 95.9W

ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19

KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO

THREE DAYS, WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY MONDAY

AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE

DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.



....

FORECASTER BRENNAN



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ31 KNHC 042034

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

400 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018



...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.4N 95.0W

ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST.  THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20

KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT

FEW DAYS, WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY MONDAY

OR TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE

DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.



....

FORECASTER BERG



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ21 KNHC 050237

TCMEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018



INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  95.9W AT 05/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  95.9W AT 05/0300Z

AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  95.5W



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N  97.3W

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.2N  99.4W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  95.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z



..

FORECASTER BRENNAN



2018-08-06 06:12

WTPZ21 KNHC 042033

TCMEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112018

2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018



INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  95.0W AT 04/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  95.0W AT 04/2100Z

AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  94.6W



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.9N  96.4W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N  98.3W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  95.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z



..

FORECASTER BERG