Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IVO-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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2019-08-22 09:16

WTPN32 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 112.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 112.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 16.2N 114.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 17.4N 115.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.0N 116.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 20.7N 117.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 24.6N 119.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 28.0N 121.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 30.5N 123.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 112.7W.
22AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1057 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-22 08:45

WTPZ45 KNHC 220842 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
300 AM MDT THU AUG 22 2019

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND CONSISTS OF A CIRCULAR MASS OF CONVECTION SURROUNDED BY A WELL-
DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MORE
EMBEDDED UNDER THE CANOPY THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO. DESPITE THE
IMPROVEMENT, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE NOT
INCREASED YET AND ARE BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KT.  BECAUSE THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT, WHICH IS THE CONSENSUS AMONG TAFB, SAB AND
SATCON ESTIMATES.

THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS SHOULD FAVOR IVO TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH HURRICANE STATUS. THEREAFTER,
IVO SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS, RESULTING
IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY DAY 4, IVO SHOULD BE OVER 20 DEGREE CELSIUS
WATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE HCCA SOLUTION AND IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF IVO HAS EITHER MOVED A
LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR IT HAS REFORMED CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER, AN AVERAGE OF
THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS GIVES A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES
AT 11 KT. IVO SHOULD BE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST

>

2019-08-22 08:43

WTPZ45 KNHC 220842
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019

The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized
and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well-
defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more
embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the
improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not
increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt.  Because the cloud
pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been
increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and
SATCON estimates.

The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to
strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter,
Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting
in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius
waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The
intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a
little higher than the consensus.

Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a
little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the
convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of
the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees
at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a
subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should
steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This
general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous
one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope
and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model
average TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-08-22 08:43

WTPZ35 KNHC 220841
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
300 AM MDT THU AUG 22 2019

...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 112.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST. IVO HAS
DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13
MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY OR FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY, BUT WEAKENING
SHOULD THEN BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-08-22 08:43

WTPZ25 KNHC 220841 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-08-22 08:42

WTPZ25 KNHC 220841
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



>

2019-08-22 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 220358

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.08.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL    ANALYSED POSITION : 39.5N  48.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 22.08.2019    0  39.5N  48.2W     1015            27
    1200UTC 22.08.2019   12  39.0N  44.5W     1016            24
    0000UTC 23.08.2019   24  38.0N  42.2W     1017            23
    1200UTC 23.08.2019   36              CEASED TRACKING

        TROPICAL STORM IVO        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 110.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 22.08.2019    0  15.8N 110.6W     1001            31
    1200UTC 22.08.2019   12  15.6N 113.6W      997            31
    0000UTC 23.08.2019   24  16.3N 115.6W      992            42
    1200UTC 23.08.2019   36  17.4N 117.0W      991            40
    0000UTC 24.08.2019   48  18.9N 117.5W      990            44
    1200UTC 24.08.2019   60  21.0N 118.2W      989            46
    0000UTC 25.08.2019   72  23.7N 119.3W      991            44
    1200UTC 25.08.2019   84  27.0N 121.2W      993            42
    0000UTC 26.08.2019   96  28.7N 123.6W     1000            31
    1200UTC 26.08.2019  108  29.9N 124.8W     1005            24
    0000UTC 27.08.2019  120  31.2N 125.4W     1007            19
    1200UTC 27.08.2019  132  32.3N 125.4W     1008            19
    0000UTC 28.08.2019  144              CEASED TRACKING

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.3N 145.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.08.2019   84  14.2N 146.3W     1006            25
    0000UTC 26.08.2019   96  14.4N 147.2W     1005            28
    1200UTC 26.08.2019  108  15.0N 147.9W     1003            28
    0000UTC 27.08.2019  120  16.2N 148.6W     1002            31
    1200UTC 27.08.2019  132  17.3N 149.1W     1000            33
    0000UTC 28.08.2019  144  18.6N 149.1W      998            39

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N  78.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.08.2019   84  28.5N  78.5W     1009            28
    0000UTC 26.08.2019   96  29.8N  77.4W     1005            33
    1200UTC 26.08.2019  108  31.7N  76.2W      998            39
    0000UTC 27.08.2019  120  33.1N  75.0W      989            52
    1200UTC 27.08.2019  132  34.6N  73.1W      978            58
    0000UTC 28.08.2019  144  36.8N  70.9W      956            75

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N  37.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 27.08.2019  132  35.8N  37.5W     1016            23
    0000UTC 28.08.2019  144  35.6N  36.8W     1015            27


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 220357

>

2019-08-22 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 220357

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.08.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL    ANALYSED POSITION : 39.5N  48.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.08.2019  39.5N  48.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 22.08.2019  39.0N  44.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.08.2019  38.0N  42.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.08.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM IVO        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 110.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.08.2019  15.8N 110.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 22.08.2019  15.6N 113.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.08.2019  16.3N 115.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.08.2019  17.4N 117.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.08.2019  18.9N 117.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.08.2019  21.0N 118.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.08.2019  23.7N 119.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2019  27.0N 121.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2019  28.7N 123.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.08.2019  29.9N 124.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.08.2019  31.2N 125.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.08.2019  32.3N 125.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.08.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.3N 145.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 25.08.2019  14.2N 146.3W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 26.08.2019  14.4N 147.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.08.2019  15.0N 147.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.08.2019  16.2N 148.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.08.2019  17.3N 149.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.08.2019  18.6N 149.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N  78.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 25.08.2019  28.5N  78.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 26.08.2019  29.8N  77.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.08.2019  31.7N  76.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.08.2019  33.1N  75.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.08.2019  34.6N  73.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.08.2019  36.8N  70.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N  37.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 27.08.2019  35.8N  37.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 28.08.2019  35.6N  36.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 220357

>

2019-08-22 03:42

WTPN32 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 16.5N 113.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 17.6N 114.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 18.8N 116.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 20.0N 116.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 23.2N 118.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 26.4N 120.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 28.8N 121.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 111.5W.
22AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1068 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND
230400Z.
NNNN

>

2019-08-22 02:38

WTPZ45 KNHC 220235 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
900 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

AN EARLIER GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE RELEASE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY REVEALED A TIGHTLY COILED BAND OF CONVECTION
THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, HOWEVER, SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEING IMPACTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER
NOW LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
MASS.  OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

IVO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT 36 H OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING
HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO TEMPER THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME.  THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND AGAIN BRINGS IVO TO
HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN 36 H. AFTER THAT TIME, COOLER WATERS AND A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND IVO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 4.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT
OTHERWISE IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IVO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 KT. THE STORM SHOULD
SLOW DOWN LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, A
WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE IVO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

>

2019-08-22 02:38

WTPZ35 KNHC 220235
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
900 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

...IVO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 111.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY
LATE THURSDAY, WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IVO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-22 02:37

WTPZ25 KNHC 220235 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W...POST-TROPICAL

>

2019-08-22 02:36

WTPZ45 KNHC 220235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

An earlier GMI microwave overpass that arrived after the release of
the previous advisory revealed a tightly coiled band of convection
that wrapped around the southern and southeastern portion of the
circulation.  More recent microwave imagery, however, shows that
the system is being impacted by northeasterly shear with the center
now located near the northeast portion of the primary convective
mass.  Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
unanimously supported an intensity of 45 kt, and the initial
intensity has been increased accordingly.

Ivo is expected to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist environment
during the next 36 h or so.  These conditions favor strengthening
however the aforementioned moderate northeasterly shear is likely
to temper the rate of intensification during that time.  The NHC
forecast calls for steady strengthening and again brings Ivo to
hurricane status within 36 h. After that time, cooler waters and a
drier and more stable air mass should cause weakening, and Ivo is
forecast to become post-tropical by day 4.  The official intensity
forecast shows a peak a little higher than most of the guidance but
otherwise is close to the model consensus.

Ivo is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. The storm should
slow down later tonight or Thursday as it begins to move around the
southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.  In about 24 hours, a
weakness is expected to develop in the ridge which is expected to
cause Ivo to turn northwestward.  A general northwestward motion
should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period.
An additional reduction in forward speed is likely late in the
forecast period as the system weakens and becomes vertically
shallow.  The track guidance as trended toward a slower motion
after 72 hours, and the updated NHC track has been adjusted a little
southward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 16.1N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-08-22 02:36

WTPZ25 KNHC 220235
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2019-08-22 00:11

WTPN31 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVO) WARNING NR 002
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 108.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 108.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 16.4N 111.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.2N 113.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 18.2N 115.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.5N 116.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 22.5N 117.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.8N 119.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 28.8N 121.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 109.7W.
21AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1121 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-21 22:13

WTPZ35 KNHC 212210 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN HEADER BLOCK

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 109.5W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. IVO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY, WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-08-21 22:05

WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN HEADER BLOCK

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN ONGOING
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION, WITH A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER APPARENT IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT AND THIS
IS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB.

IVO'S INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY, A WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

IVO WILL BE OVER WARM SSTS NEAR 30C AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. AND,
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
MAY BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE, THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE DOES NOT
SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS HAVING MUCH OF IMPACT AT THIS TIME. BASED
ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST,
AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. BY 72 HOURS,
THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
STABLE AIR MASS WHILE UNDERGOING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A CONVECTION-FREE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL

>

2019-08-21 22:05

WTPZ25 KNHC 212201 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN THE HEADER BLOCK

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-08-21 22:04

WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number   2...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Corrected storm ID in header block

Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing
increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the
low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave
data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this
is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB.

Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through
much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to
the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then
forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for
the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And,
although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear
may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not
suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based
on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast,
and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours,
the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a
stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear.
This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become
a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official
forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is
close to the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-08-21 22:03

WTPZ25 KNHC 212201 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

CORRECTED STORM ID IN THE HEADER BLOCK

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-21 20:36

WTPZ25 KNHC 212034 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W

>

2019-08-21 20:35

WTPZ25 KNHC 212034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-21 14:54

WTPZ45 KNHC 211451 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
900 AM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. AN EARLY
MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A NEARLY CLOSED SURFACE LOW WITH
PEAK WINDS OF 30 KT. SINCE THAT TIME, THE APPEARANCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW HAS
MOST LIKELY CLOSED AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS DATA, ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST A 30 KT INTENSITY, WHICH
WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION'S INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS
RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS
THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF AROUND 30
C, THROUGH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, AND WITH 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME, AND THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, AND A MINIMAL

>

2019-08-21 14:53

WTPZ45 KNHC 211451
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance
that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several
days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early
morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with
peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the
disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has
most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories
are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being
steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from
northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model
guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this
ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression.
This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is
then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder
of the forecast period.

The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30
C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly
shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady
strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal
hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the
model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on
the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect
for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will
move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while
undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken
and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical
cyclone by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-08-21 14:53

WTPZ35 KNHC 211450
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
900 AM MDT WED AUG 21 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 107.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30
KM/H). A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT,
AND A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-21 14:51

WTPZ25 KNHC 211449 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL

>

2019-08-21 14:50

WTPZ25 KNHC 211449
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019
1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

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