Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-25
in China, Viet Nam, Philippines

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-25 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001219
Name MATMO-25
Glide number: TC-2025-000183-VNM
From - To 01 Oct - 05 Oct
Exposed countries China, Viet Nam, Philippines
Exposed population 20 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 167 km/h Category 2
Maximum storm surge 3.4 m (05 Oct 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Vietnam)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 167 km/h 3.4 m n.a. 2.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
GFS 194 km/h 3 m 3057 mm 2.5
ECMWF 205 km/h 2.9 m 2433 mm 2.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Philippines, China - Tropical cyclone TWENTYSEVEN (ECHO 07 Oct 2025)Thu, 02 Oct 2025 10:16

  • A new tropical cyclone named TWENTYSEVEN ("Paolo" in the Philippines) formed over the Philippine Sea on 30 September around 12.00 (UTC) and started moving west toward the Luzon island, northern Philippines. On 2 October at 3.00 its centre was located offshore, approximately 480 km east of the coast of central-northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (tropical storm).
  • TWENTYSEVEN is expected to make landfall just south of the Palanan town, Isabela province, Cagayan Valley region, north-eastern Luzon) very late in the afternoon of 2 October, with maximum sustained winds up to 111 km/h (tropical storm). After that, it is forecast to continue north-west over the South China Sea and to make landfall over the south-western Guangdong province, southern China around 5 October at 0.00, as a typhoon.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall is forecast over central and northern Philippines, while very heavy rainfall is forecast over Luzon starting from 3 October. Very heavy rainfall is also forecast over the Guangdong province from 4 October.
MATMO-25 - EC/ECHO daily mapThu, 02 Oct 2025 17:54

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Philippines, Vietnam, China - Tropical cyclone MATMO, update (ECHO 08 Oct 2025)Fri, 03 Oct 2025 10:08

  • Tropical cyclone MATMO (named "Paolo" in the Philippines) made landfall over the eastern coast of the Cagayan Valley region, north-eastern Luzon on 3 October just after 0.00 UTC, with maximum sustained winds up to 120 km/h (typhoon). On 3 October at 3.00, its centre was located inland over the central Cordillera Administrative Region, northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 110-115 km/h (tropical storm).
  • MATMO is expected to continue west over the South China Sea, strengthening, and to make its second landfall over the far south-western Guangdong province, southern China late in the morning of 5 October, with maximum sustained winds up to 148 km/h (typhoon).
  • Very heavy rainfall is forecast over Luzon on 3-4 October. Very heavy rainfall is also forecast over southern China and northern Viet Nam on 5-8 October.
Philippines, China, Viet Nam - Tropical cyclone MATMO, update (ECHO 11 Oct 2025)Mon, 06 Oct 2025 11:04

  • Tropical Cyclone MATMO crossed northern Luzon Island, northern Philippines as a tropical storm on 3 October, moved over the sea, and made landfall on the southern coasts of Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, southern China on 5 October as a tropical cyclone, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surges. After landfall, it weakened into a tropical depression and dissipated.
  • In the Philippines, 20,549 people have been displaced, including 6,505 who were evacuated to 284 evacuation centres. Nearly 226,000 people have been affected across five regions.
  • For the Next 48 hours, heavy to locally intense rainfall is expected across southern China and northern Vietnam. Light to moderate rainfall is forecast for the northern Philippines.

 

MATMO-25 - EC/ECHO daily mapMon, 06 Oct 2025 18:00

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Philippines, China, Viet Nam - Tropical cyclone MATMO, update (ECHO 12 Oct 2025)Tue, 07 Oct 2025 10:38

  • Tropical cyclone MATMO weakened and dissipated between southern China and northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds, particularly over the Philippines and southern China.
  • According to national authorities, in the Philippines, more than 315,000 people have been affected, with over 6,700 evacuated preventively across five regions. Additionally, five houses were destroyed and 52 others damaged. In China, 347,000 people were evacuated across the provinces of Guangdong and Hainan. In Vietnam, schools in the capital Hanoi, were closed, and flights were delayed or rescheduled.
  • For the next 48 hours, heavy to locally heavy rainfall is expected in northern Vietnam and southern China, while light to moderate rain is forecast over northern Philippines.

 

Viet Nam - Tropical cyclone MATMO, update (ECHO 13 Oct 2025)Wed, 08 Oct 2025 10:00

  • Tropical cyclone MATMO also affected parts of Viet Nam starting from 6 October, resulting in floods, landslides and severe weather-related incidents. The worst-impacted provinces, located in northern Viet Nam, are Son La, Lang Son, Dien Bien, Thai Nguyen, and Bac Ninh.
  • According to the ASEAN Disaster Information Network and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), eight people died, three of them due to landslides, four due to flash floods and one due to lightning. Additionally, five people are missing, and almost 65,000 people have been affected, as well as more than 16,000 houses - 402 of them have been damaged - across the aforementioned provinces.
  • On 8-9 October, moderate to locally heavy rain is expected across northern Viet Nam.



Detailed event map. European Union, 2025. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

ASEAN Weekly Disaster Update Week 40 | 29 September – 5 October 2025 10/6/2025 8:37:00 PM.

REGIONAL SUMMARY: During the fortieth week of 2025, a total of 20 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, and wind-related incidents affecting Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia,
...(more)
WEEKLY DISASTER UPDATE 29 September – 5 October 2025 10/6/2025 4:35:00 PM.

REGIONAL SUMMARY: During the fortieth week of 2025, a total of 20 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, and wind-related incidents affecting Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia,
...(more)
Paolo now a typhoon 10/3/2025 1:53:00 AM.

Tropical Cyclone Paolo intensified into a typhoon on Friday morning, according to state weather bureau PAGASA. “As of 8:00 AM today, 03 October 2025, ‘PAOLO’ (Int''l name MATMO’) intensified into a Typhoon and is still being monitored insid
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),