Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25
in Mexico

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001222
Name PRISCILLA-25
From - To 04 Oct - 10 Oct
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h Category 2
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (10 Oct 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

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Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 176 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
GFS 72 km/h 0.6 m 4425 mm 0.5
ECMWF 205 km/h 0.7 m 2350 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico - Tropical cyclone PRISCILLA (ECHO 13 Oct 2025)Wed, 08 Oct 2025 10:00

  • A new tropical cyclone named PRISCILLA formed over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean on 4 October and started moving north along the coast of south-western Mexico, strengthening. On 8 October at 6.00 (UTC), its centre was located offshore approximately 285 km south-west of Cabo San Lucas city, Baja California Sur state, western Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (category 2 hurricane).
  • PRISCILLA is forecast to continue north along the coast of the California peninsula on 8-10 October, weakening. After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the area of the Bahia Tortuga city, Baja California state on the early morning of 11 October as a tropical depression.
  • Over the next 96 hours, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast over the California peninsula and central-western and north-western Mexico. NOAA has issued a tropical storm watch over the Baja California Sur state.
Mexico, USA - Tropical cyclone PRISCILLA, update (ECHO 14 Oct 2025)Thu, 09 Oct 2025 10:13

  • On 8 October, tropical cyclone PRISCILLA continued north-west over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean, along the coast of western Mexico, weakening. On 9 October at 6.00 (UTC), its centre was located offshore approximately 230 km south-west of San Carlos city, Baja California Sur state, western Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (tropical storm).
  • PRISCILLA is forecast to continue north-west along the coast of the California peninsula on 9-10 October, further weakening, and to make landfall over the area of the Bahia Tortuga city, Baja California state on early afternoon of 11 October as a tropical depression.
  • Over the next 72 hours, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast over the California peninsula and western Mexico. Heavy rainfall is also forecast over the south-western USA during the same period. The tropical storm watch over the Baja California Sur state issued by NOAA is still in force.
Mexico, USA - Tropical cyclone activity, update (ECHO 15 Oct 2025)Fri, 10 Oct 2025 09:17

  • The tropical cyclone PRISCILLA continued moving along the coast of western Mexico, weakening. On 10 October at 3.00 (UTC), its centre was located offshore approximately 225 km south-west of Punta Abrejos in Baja California Sur state, western Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h (tropical storm). PRISCILLA is forecast to continue north-east along the coast of the California peninsula, weakening to tropical depression and dissipating on 11 October.
  • Over the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast over the California peninsula and western Mexico and south-weastern United States.
  • In Mexico, a new tropical cyclone named RAYMOND formed over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean on 9 October, 150 km east of the Guerrero state coast, and it is moving north-west over the ocean as tropical storm. It is forecast to make landfall on Baia California on 12 October. Intense or torrential rainfall is expected over Guerrero, Michoacán, and Oaxaca states.
Mexico - Floods and landslides, update (ECHO 19 Oct 2025)Tue, 14 Oct 2025 09:42

  • Heavy rainfall affected several states of Mexico over the last few days, causing floods and landslides that have resulted in more casualties and widespread damage. The severe weather was also due to the hurricane PRISCILLA and to the tropical storm RAYMOND – and their remnants – which occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over 4-12 October.
  • The government of Mexico reports, as of 13 October, 64 fatalities, 67 still missing people, and 5,448 evacuated people in 146 temporary shelters across the affected area, where the worst affected states are Veracruz, Puebla, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosí, and Querétaro. In addition, the same source reports nearly 48,200 damaged houses across the aforementioned states.
  • The Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) was activated in rapid mapping mode () on 14 October.
  • Over the next 72 hours, more rainfall with locally heavy rainfall is forecast over western and eastern coastal Mexico and over some northern areas of the country.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2025. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),