Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PABUK-18 in Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia from 31 Dec 2018 06:00 UTC to 05 Jan 2019 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PABUK-18

in Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PABUK-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	102 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (03 Jan 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Myanmar)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	102 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 10 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Dec 2018 06:00	83	1.3 million	No people	Viet Nam, Thailand, Myanmar
2	31 Dec 2018 12:00	83	1.7 million	No people	Viet Nam, Thailand, Myanmar
3	31 Dec 2018 18:00	83	5.4 million	No people	Thailand, Myanmar
4	01 Jan 2019 00:00	65	1.6 million	No people	Viet Nam, Thailand, Myanmar
5	01 Jan 2019 03:00	56	No people	No people
6	01 Jan 2019 12:00	56	No people	No people
7	01 Jan 2019 18:00	65	Few people	No people
8	02 Jan 2019 00:00	65	60 thousand	No people	Indonesia
9	02 Jan 2019 06:00	65	60 thousand	No people	Indonesia
10	02 Jan 2019 12:00	65	60 thousand	No people	Indonesia
11	02 Jan 2019 18:00	74	60 thousand	No people	Indonesia
12	03 Jan 2019 00:00	93	14.3 million	No people	Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, India
13	03 Jan 2019 06:00	83	13.7 million	No people	Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, India
14	03 Jan 2019 12:00	74	13.5 million	No people	Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, India
15	03 Jan 2019 18:00	83	12.3 million	No people	Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, India
16	04 Jan 2019 00:00	102	11.3 million	No people	Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, India
17	04 Jan 2019 06:00	93	10.4 million	No people	Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, India
18	04 Jan 2019 12:00	93	10.1 million	No people	Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Indonesia, India
21	05 Jan 2019 06:00	65	10.4 million	No people	Thailand, Myanmar, India, Malaysia, Indonesia
22	05 Jan 2019 12:00	65	10.4 million	No people	Myanmar, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Indonesia
23	05 Jan 2019 18:00	46	10 million	No people	Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Dec 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	8.5, 112.6
2	31 Dec 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	7.7, 111.2
3	31 Dec 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	6.6, 111
4	01 Jan 2019 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	6.6, 110.8
5	01 Jan 2019 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	6.1, 110.3
6	01 Jan 2019 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	5.9, 109.9
7	01 Jan 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	6, 109.1
8	02 Jan 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	5.8, 108.6
9	02 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	5.9, 108.1
10	02 Jan 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	6.1, 107.1
11	02 Jan 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	6.1, 105.8
12	03 Jan 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	3.2 million people	6, 105.3	Thailand
13	03 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	4 million people	6, 104.8	Thailand
14	03 Jan 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	4.9 million people	6.5, 104.1	Malaysia
15	03 Jan 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	7.7 million people	7.2, 103	Thailand
16	04 Jan 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	8.6 million people	8.1, 101.8	Myanmar
17	04 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	6.8 million people	8.2, 100.7	Myanmar
18	04 Jan 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	5.2 million people	8.3, 99.6	Myanmar
21	05 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	330000 people	9.5, 98.1	Myanmar
22	05 Jan 2019 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10, 97.4	Myanmar
23	05 Jan 2019 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	10.1, 96.6
23	06 Jan 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	10.9, 94.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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