Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for VANCE-14
in Mexico
05 Nov 2014 15 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone VANCE-14 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (05 Nov 16:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 47 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      47 km/h Current Max.

      Up to no people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 30 Oct 2014 09:00 130 No people No people
        Green 2 30 Oct 2014 15:00 138 No people No people
        Green 3 30 Oct 2014 21:00 130 No people No people Mexico
        Green 4 31 Oct 2014 03:00 130 No people No people Mexico
        Green 5 31 Oct 2014 09:00 130 No people No people Mexico
        Green 6 31 Oct 2014 15:00 138 No people No people Mexico
        Green 7 31 Oct 2014 21:00 130 No people No people Mexico
        Green 8 01 Nov 2014 03:00 121 No people No people Mexico
        Green 9 01 Nov 2014 09:00 121 No people No people Mexico
        Green 10 01 Nov 2014 15:00 121 No people No people Mexico
        Green 11 01 Nov 2014 21:00 121 No people No people Mexico
        Green 12 02 Nov 2014 03:00 138 No people No people Mexico
        Green 13 02 Nov 2014 09:00 148 No people No people Mexico
        Green 14 02 Nov 2014 15:00 167 No people No people Mexico
        Green 15 02 Nov 2014 21:00 167 No people No people Mexico
        Green 16 03 Nov 2014 03:00 185 No people No people Mexico
        Green 17 03 Nov 2014 09:00 175 No people No people Mexico
        Green 18 03 Nov 2014 15:00 167 No people No people Mexico
        Green 19 03 Nov 2014 21:00 175 No people No people Mexico
        Green 20 04 Nov 2014 03:00 175 No people No people Mexico
        Green 21 04 Nov 2014 09:00 167 No people No people Mexico
        Green 22 04 Nov 2014 15:00 138 140 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 23 04 Nov 2014 21:00 101 No people No people Mexico
        Green 24 05 Nov 2014 03:00 84 410 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 25 05 Nov 2014 09:00 56 No people No people
        Green 26 05 Nov 2014 15:00 47 No people No people

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          green
          		 1 10/30/2014 9:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11, -100.2
          green
          		 2 10/30/2014 3:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.5, -100.9
          green
          		 3 10/30/2014 9:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 11, -101
          green
          		 4 10/31/2014 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.8, -101.3
          green
          		 5 10/31/2014 9:00:00 AM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.5, -101
          green
          		 6 10/31/2014 3:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.1, -100.8
          green
          		 7 10/31/2014 9:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.5, -101.4
          green
          		 8 11/1/2014 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 9.5, -101.8
          green
          		 9 11/1/2014 9:00:00 AM Tropical storm 64 no people no people 9.4, -102.7
          green
          		 10 11/1/2014 3:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.6, -103.2
          green
          		 11 11/1/2014 9:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.1, -104.4
          green
          		 12 11/2/2014 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 84 no people no people 10.2, -105.4
          green
          		 13 11/2/2014 9:00:00 AM Tropical storm 111 no people no people 10.9, -106.5
          green
          		 14 11/2/2014 3:00:00 PM Category 1 130 no people no people 11.9, -107.5
          green
          		 15 11/2/2014 9:00:00 PM Category 1 138 no people no people 12.8, -108.6
          green
          		 16 11/3/2014 3:00:00 AM Category 2 167 no people no people 13.7, -109.6
          green
          		 17 11/3/2014 9:00:00 AM Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -110.3
          green
          		 18 11/3/2014 3:00:00 PM Category 2 167 no people no people 15.3, -110.6
          green
          		 19 11/3/2014 9:00:00 PM Category 2 175 no people no people 16.4, -110.8 Mexico
          green
          		 20 11/4/2014 3:00:00 AM Category 2 175 no people no people 17.4, -110.6 Mexico
          green
          		 21 11/4/2014 9:00:00 AM Category 2 167 no people no people 18.4, -110 Mexico
          green
          		 22 11/4/2014 3:00:00 PM Category 1 138 no people no people 19.3, -109.6 Mexico
          green
          		 23 11/4/2014 9:00:00 PM Tropical storm 101 no people no people 20.4, -108.6
          green
          		 24 11/5/2014 3:00:00 AM Tropical storm 84 no people no people 21.5, -108 Mexico
          green
          		 25 11/5/2014 9:00:00 AM Tropical depression 56 no people no people 21.9, -106.9 Mexico
          green
          		 26 11/5/2014 3:00:00 PM Tropical depression 47 no people no people 22.7, -105.7 Mexico
          green
          		 26 11/6/2014 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 23, -105 Mexico
          green
          		 27 11/5/2014 9:00:00 PM Tropical depression 37 no people no people 23.3, -105.2 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Mexico Baja California Sur
          Mexico Nayarit

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Perihuete, Mexico. This height is estimated for 05 Nov 2014 16:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (8 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 05 Nov 2014 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Nov 2014 16:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
          05 Nov 2014 16:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
          05 Nov 2014 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 12:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 15:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 11:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 11:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
          05 Nov 2014 11:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1