Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for PAM-15
in Vanuatu
15 Mar 2015 12 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PAM-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Vanuatu
    Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
    Maximum storm surge
    Vulnerability Medium (Vanuatu)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 121 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 278 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 09 Mar 2015 06:00 222 No people No people
        Green 2 09 Mar 2015 12:00 222 No people No people
        Green 3 10 Mar 2015 00:00 241 No people No people Vanuatu
        Green 4 10 Mar 2015 12:00 259 No people No people Vanuatu
        Green 5 10 Mar 2015 18:00 259 No people No people Vanuatu
        Green 6 11 Mar 2015 00:00 269 No people No people Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
        Green 7 11 Mar 2015 06:00 269 No people No people Vanuatu
        Red 8 11 Mar 2015 12:00 269 No people 40 thousand Vanuatu
        Green 9 11 Mar 2015 18:00 259 No people 5 thousand Vanuatu
        Green 10 12 Mar 2015 00:00 259 No people Few people Vanuatu
        Green 11 12 Mar 2015 06:00 259 No people 2 thousand Vanuatu
        Green 12 12 Mar 2015 12:00 278 No people 4 thousand Vanuatu
        Green 13 12 Mar 2015 18:00 278 No people 2 thousand Vanuatu
        Green 14 13 Mar 2015 00:00 278 No people 10 thousand Vanuatu
        Red 15 13 Mar 2015 06:00 269 No people 50 thousand Vanuatu
        Red 16 13 Mar 2015 12:00 269 --- 90 thousand Vanuatu
        Red 17 13 Mar 2015 18:00 249 No people 90 thousand Vanuatu
        Green 18 14 Mar 2015 00:00 249 No people 90 thousand New Caledonia, Vanuatu
        Green 19 14 Mar 2015 12:00 241 No people 90 thousand New Zealand
        Green 20 14 Mar 2015 18:00 212 No people 90 thousand New Zealand
        Green 21 15 Mar 2015 00:00 185 No people 90 thousand New Zealand
        Green 22 15 Mar 2015 12:00 121 No people 90 thousand New Zealand

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 09 Mar 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -8.5, 169.8
          GREEN
          		 2 09 Mar 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -8.4, 170.3
          GREEN
          		 3 10 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -9.8, 170.5
          GREEN
          		 4 10 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -10.6, 170.3
          GREEN
          		 5 10 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -11.1, 170.1
          GREEN
          		 6 11 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -11, 169.6
          GREEN
          		 7 11 Mar 2015 06:00 Category 3 194 no people no people -11.2, 169.7
          GREEN
          		 8 11 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 4 213 no people no people -11.5, 169.7
          GREEN
          		 9 11 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people -11.9, 170.1
          GREEN
          		 10 12 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people -12.6, 170.2
          GREEN
          		 11 12 Mar 2015 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people -13.4, 170.1
          GREEN
          		 12 12 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people -14.2, 169.9
          GREEN
          		 13 12 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people -15, 169.6
          GREEN
          		 14 13 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people -15.9, 169.3
          GREEN
          		 15 13 Mar 2015 06:00 Category 5 269 no people no people -16.9, 168.9
          		16 13 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people -17.7, 168.7
          GREEN
          		 17 13 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 4 250 no people no people -18.9, 169
          GREEN
          		 18 14 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 4 250 no people no people -20.5, 169.3
          GREEN
          		 19 14 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people -24.6, 171.1
          GREEN
          		 20 14 Mar 2015 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people -26.9, 172.7
          GREEN
          		 21 15 Mar 2015 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -29.3, 175
          GREEN
          		 22 15 Mar 2015 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -33.3, 178.3
          GREEN
          		 22 16 Mar 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -37, -179.9
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0 m

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of Fri, 13 Mar 2015 11:00:00 GMT UTC. (Simulation using minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)