Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for NATHAN-15 in Australia from 10 Mar 2015 18:00 UTC to 24 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NATHAN-15

in Australia

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NATHAN-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.7 m (22 Mar 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	185 km/h	1.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	10 Mar 2015 18:00	185	No people	No people
2	11 Mar 2015 06:00	167	No people	No people
3	11 Mar 2015 18:00	158	No people	No people
4	12 Mar 2015 06:00	158	No people	No people	Vanuatu
5	12 Mar 2015 18:00	158	No people	No people
6	13 Mar 2015 06:00	158	No people	No people
7	13 Mar 2015 18:00	175	No people	No people
8	14 Mar 2015 06:00	158	No people	No people
9	14 Mar 2015 18:00	121	No people	No people
10	15 Mar 2015 06:00	130	No people	No people
11	15 Mar 2015 18:00	130	No people	No people
12	16 Mar 2015 06:00	130	No people	No people	Australia
13	16 Mar 2015 18:00	138	No people	No people	Australia
14	17 Mar 2015 06:00	138	No people	No people	Australia
15	17 Mar 2015 18:00	138	No people	No people	Australia
16	18 Mar 2015 06:00	158	No people	2 thousand	Australia
17	18 Mar 2015 18:00	185	No people	2 thousand	Australia
18	19 Mar 2015 06:00	185	No people	6 thousand	Australia
19	19 Mar 2015 18:00	167	No people	7 thousand	Australia
20	20 Mar 2015 06:00	148	No people	7 thousand	Australia
21	20 Mar 2015 18:00	130	No people	5 thousand	Australia
22	21 Mar 2015 06:00	93	No people	2 thousand	Australia
23	21 Mar 2015 18:00	101	No people	2 thousand	Australia
24	22 Mar 2015 06:00	121	No people	2 thousand	Australia
25	22 Mar 2015 18:00	121	No people	2 thousand	Australia
26	23 Mar 2015 06:00	121	No people	2 thousand	Australia
27	23 Mar 2015 18:00	93	No people	2 thousand	Australia
28	24 Mar 2015 06:00	56	No people	2 thousand

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	10 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.6, 147.5
2	11 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.4, 146.3
3	11 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.7, 145.8
4	12 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.3, 145.5
5	12 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 145.1
6	13 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.1, 145.5
7	13 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.1, 145.3
8	14 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.1, 146.1
9	14 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.3, 147.7
10	15 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.5, 149
11	15 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.7, 149.8
12	16 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.3, 150.2
13	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-14.2, 149.6
14	17 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.6, 149.5
15	17 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.9, 149.4
16	18 Mar 2015 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-14.9, 149.1
17	18 Mar 2015 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-14.7, 148.2
18	19 Mar 2015 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-14.7, 146.9
19	19 Mar 2015 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-14.7, 145
20	20 Mar 2015 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-14.5, 143.2
21	20 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-14, 141.5
22	21 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.7, 139.3
23	21 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.1, 137.5
24	22 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-12.2, 135.9
25	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-11.5, 134.9
26	23 Mar 2015 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-11.4, 134.3
27	23 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-11.6, 133.5
28	24 Mar 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-12.5, 132.4
28	24 Mar 2015 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-12.7, 131.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.7m in Caburinga Village, Australia. This height is estimated for 22 Mar 2015 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (167 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 27 of 23 Mar 2015 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Mar 2015 01:00	Caburinga Village	Australia	1.7
	21 Mar 2015 22:00	Numbulwar	Australia	0.9
	22 Mar 2015 01:00	Alyangula	Australia	0.8
	22 Mar 2015 04:00	Nhulunbuy	Australia	0.7
	19 Mar 2015 18:00	Elim	Australia	0.7
	21 Mar 2015 23:00	Karumba	Australia	0.7
	20 Mar 2015 05:00	Running Creek	Australia	0.6
	20 Mar 2015 04:00	Aloszville	Australia	0.5
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Taroea Anim	Indonesia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 07:00	Mapoon	Australia	0.5
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Dolatanden	Indonesia	0.5
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Kladar	Indonesia	0.5
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Sabon	Indonesia	0.5
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Tor	Indonesia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 05:00	Gove	Australia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 05:00	Yirrkala Mission	Australia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 05:00	Yirrkala	Australia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 11:00	Bula	Papua New Guinea	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 11:00	Jara	Papua New Guinea	0.5
	19 Mar 2015 18:00	Cooktown	Australia	0.5
	25 Mar 2015 06:00	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 12:00	Badu	Australia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Kowanyama	Australia	0.5
	25 Mar 2015 06:00	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.5
	25 Mar 2015 06:00	Parap	Australia	0.5
	25 Mar 2015 06:00	Darwin	Australia	0.5
	25 Mar 2015 06:00	Ludmilla	Australia	0.5
	25 Mar 2015 06:00	Bagot	Australia	0.5
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Port Kennedy	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 07:00	Kulinchin	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Weipa	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Weipa South	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Selemit	Indonesia	0.4
	25 Mar 2015 06:00	Nightcliff	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Pasirputih	Indonesia	0.4
	25 Mar 2015 04:00	Leanyer	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 11:00	Hammond I	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Onggalie	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Kumbe	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Kotad	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Dumande	Indonesia	0.4
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Birab	Indonesia	0.4
	21 Mar 2015 12:00	Cape York	Australia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Papisote	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Welab	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Kobiem	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Okaba	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Moegaigare	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Alakoe	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Alatepi	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 09:00	Wan	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 09:00	Konerau	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 12:00	Anansai	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 12:00	Wendu	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Matara	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 08:00	Urum	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 11:00	Merauke	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Gelib	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 09:00	Komoran	Indonesia	0.4
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Otsjanep	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 11:00	Sarire	Indonesia	0.4
	22 Mar 2015 10:00	Wamal	Indonesia	0.4
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Per	Indonesia	0.3
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Amborip	Indonesia	0.3
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Biwarlaut	Indonesia	0.3
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Jow	Indonesia	0.3
	22 Mar 2015 11:00	Seisia	Australia	0.3
	21 Mar 2015 15:00	Agats	Indonesia	0.3
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Jofar	Indonesia	0.3
	16 Mar 2015 21:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	19 Mar 2015 18:00	Ayton	Australia	0.2
	22 Mar 2015 13:00	Saibai	Australia	0.2
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Hamlet of Togo	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Mabaduan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 13:00	Sanindara	Indonesia	0.2
	24 Mar 2015 11:00	Minjilang	Australia	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 11:00	Ok Village	Australia	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Amamapare	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Halifax	Australia	0.2
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Cassady	Australia	0.2
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Lucinda	Australia	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Ndapurutiri	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Midgeton	Australia	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 13:00	Agatebi	Indonesia	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 13:00	Sakaoeni	Indonesia	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Keawkwa	Indonesia	0.2
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Timuka	Indonesia	0.2
	18 Mar 2015 19:00	Deeral	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 21:00	South Mission Beach	Australia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 13:00	Sajengga	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Mimako	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Bellenden Ker	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Lower Tully	Australia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Ipirawea	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Kamma	Australia	0.1
	18 Mar 2015 20:00	Yarrabah Aboriginal Community	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Coolbie	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Mutarnee	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Moongobulla	Australia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 06:00	Waidoro	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Te Kowai	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Glenella	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	North Mackay	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Mackay	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Cremorne	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Rosella	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Chelona	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Bakers Creek	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Hay Point	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Taffy Islet	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 18:00	Alligator Creek	Australia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 22:00	Krai	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 22:00	Longar	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 22:00	Baimoeh	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 22:00	Gomo Gomo	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 22:00	Masian	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Innisfail	Australia	0.1
	17 Mar 2015 00:00	Inveroona	Australia	0.1
	17 Mar 2015 00:00	Queens Beach	Australia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 12:00	Moegoetira	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 16:00	Amar	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Uta	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Djamboeai	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Barakan	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 21:00	Diommon	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 21:00	Doka	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 21:00	Oud Krai	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 21:00	Krei-lama	Indonesia	0.1
	27 Mar 2015 18:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.1
	11 Mar 2015 07:00	Mossman	Australia	0.1
	11 Mar 2015 07:00	Miallo	Australia	0.1
	11 Mar 2015 07:00	Wonga	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Rollingstone	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 22:00	Kinduro	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Etowri	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Nindaroo	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Bucasia	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Eimeo	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Andergrove	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Blacks Beach	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Slade Point	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 20:00	Amhurst	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 21:00	Carmila	Australia	0.1
	16 Mar 2015 21:00	Flaggy Rock	Australia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 13:00	Tanam	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 13:00	Kamboeriami	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 12:00	Kinara	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Mar 2015 12:00	Aoem	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Basada	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Sewer	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Karwai	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Kobroor	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Kedjabi	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Karaum	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Keojabi	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Kangoerma	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Umuk	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 18:00	Wakia	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Rabal	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Komfane	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 17:00	Bendjoering	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 16:00	Djoering	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 16:00	Pono	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 15:00	Kobadangar	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 21:00	Ngaibor	Indonesia	0.1
	22 Mar 2015 21:00	Wadjin	Indonesia	0.1
	11 Mar 2015 07:00	Port Douglas	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.