Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CHAMPI-15 Off-shore from 13 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC to 24 Oct 2015 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHAMPI-15

Off-shore

24 Oct 2015 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHAMPI-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (16 Oct 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	102 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 160000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 06:00	130	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
2	13 Oct 2015 12:00	139	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
4	14 Oct 2015 00:00	157	---	No people
5	14 Oct 2015 06:00	204	---	No people
6	14 Oct 2015 12:00	213	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
7	14 Oct 2015 18:00	204	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
8	15 Oct 2015 00:00	204	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
10	15 Oct 2015 12:00	185	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
11	15 Oct 2015 18:00	176	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
12	16 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
13	16 Oct 2015 06:00	194	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
14	16 Oct 2015 12:00	194	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
15	16 Oct 2015 18:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
16	17 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
17	17 Oct 2015 06:00	222	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
18	17 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
19	17 Oct 2015 18:00	213	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
20	18 Oct 2015 00:00	204	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
21	18 Oct 2015 06:00	231	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
22	18 Oct 2015 12:00	269	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
23	18 Oct 2015 18:00	231	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
24	19 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
25	19 Oct 2015 06:00	194	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
26	19 Oct 2015 12:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
27	19 Oct 2015 18:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
28	20 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
29	20 Oct 2015 06:00	167	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
30	20 Oct 2015 12:00	148	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
31	20 Oct 2015 18:00	148	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
32	21 Oct 2015 00:00	139	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
33	21 Oct 2015 06:00	130	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
34	21 Oct 2015 12:00	157	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
35	21 Oct 2015 18:00	176	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
36	22 Oct 2015 00:00	185	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
37	22 Oct 2015 06:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
38	22 Oct 2015 12:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
39	22 Oct 2015 18:00	185	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
40	23 Oct 2015 00:00	176	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
41	23 Oct 2015 06:00	157	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
42	23 Oct 2015 12:00	148	---	No people	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
43	23 Oct 2015 18:00	139	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
44	24 Oct 2015 00:00	130	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
45	24 Oct 2015 06:00	120	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
46	24 Oct 2015 12:00	111	---	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
47	24 Oct 2015 18:00	102	No people	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.5, 161.2
2	13 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	13, 159.3
4	14 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, 158.4
5	14 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.9, 156.4
6	14 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.8, 155.1
7	14 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.1, 153.7
8	15 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.4, 152.6
10	15 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.9, 149.5	Northern Mariana Islands
11	15 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16, 148.5	Northern Mariana Islands
12	16 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.8, 146.9	Northern Mariana Islands
13	16 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.8, 144.7	Northern Mariana Islands
14	16 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16, 144.1	Northern Mariana Islands
15	16 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.6, 143.2
16	17 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	17.1, 142.5
17	17 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	17.3, 141.8
18	17 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	18.7, 140.7
19	17 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	18.8, 140.3
20	18 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	19.2, 140.1
21	18 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	19.5, 140
22	18 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	19.9, 140.2
23	18 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	20.2, 140.3
24	19 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	20.5, 140.4
25	19 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	20.8, 140.3
26	19 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	21, 140.2
27	19 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	21.1, 140.1
28	20 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	21.5, 140.1
29	20 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	21.8, 140
30	20 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	22.2, 140
31	20 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	22.4, 140
32	21 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	22.7, 140
33	21 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	22.9, 140
34	21 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	23.2, 140.4
35	21 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	23.3, 140.7
36	22 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	23.7, 141.2
37	22 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24, 141.7
38	22 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24.2, 142.5
39	22 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24.7, 143.8
40	23 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	25.1, 145.1
41	23 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	25.5, 146.4
42	23 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	25.7, 148.1
43	23 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	26.5, 149.3
44	24 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	27, 150.4
45	24 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	27.4, 151.9
46	24 Oct 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	28.3, 153.2
47	24 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	29.6, 155.2
47	25 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	34, 162
47	25 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	39.6, 170.3

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Guam	Guam
Northern Mariana Islands	Northern Mariana Is.

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Saipan		Northern Mariana Islands	Capital	62000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 16 Oct 2015 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (5 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 47 of 24 Oct 2015 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Garapan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Mutcho	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	Tanapag	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	16 Oct 2015 03:00	San Roque	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	22 Oct 2015 02:00	Higashi	Japan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.