Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for CHAPALA-15 Off-shore from 28 Oct 2015 18:00 UTC to 02 Nov 2015 00:00 UTC

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHAPALA-15 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	340 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	222 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Nov 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	222 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 71000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Oct 2015 18:00	194	---	20 thousand	Yemen
2	29 Oct 2015 00:00	194	---	40 thousand	Yemen
3	29 Oct 2015 06:00	213	---	40 thousand	Yemen
4	29 Oct 2015 12:00	213	---	40 thousand	Yemen
5	29 Oct 2015 18:00	213	---	60 thousand	Yemen
6	30 Oct 2015 00:00	213	---	60 thousand	Yemen
7	30 Oct 2015 06:00	185	---	60 thousand	Yemen
8	30 Oct 2015 12:00	222	---	70 thousand	Yemen
11	31 Oct 2015 06:00	167	---	90 thousand	Yemen
12	31 Oct 2015 12:00	139	---	290 thousand	Yemen
14	01 Nov 2015 00:00	176	---	610 thousand	Yemen, Saudi Arabia
15	01 Nov 2015 06:00	139	---	220 thousand	Yemen
16	01 Nov 2015 12:00	157	---	390 thousand	Yemen
17	01 Nov 2015 18:00	139	---	110 thousand	Yemen
18	02 Nov 2015 00:00	194	---	70 thousand	Yemen

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Oct 2015 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, 64.7
2	29 Oct 2015 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.5, 64.2
3	29 Oct 2015 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.8, 63.8
4	29 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.2, 63.1
5	29 Oct 2015 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.3, 62.3
6	30 Oct 2015 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	14.2, 61.8
7	30 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	14.2, 61.1
8	30 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	14, 60.5
11	31 Oct 2015 06:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	13.9, 58.7
12	31 Oct 2015 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	13.8, 57.9
14	01 Nov 2015 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	56000 people	13.6, 56.4	Yemen
15	01 Nov 2015 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	57000 people	13.4, 55.7	Yemen
16	01 Nov 2015 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	57000 people	13.4, 54.6	Yemen
17	01 Nov 2015 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	72000 people	13.3, 53.6	Yemen
18	02 Nov 2015 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	71000 people	13.2, 52.6	Yemen
18	02 Nov 2015 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	550000 people	13.3, 50.8	Yemen
18	03 Nov 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	71000 people	930000 people	13.7, 49.2	Yemen
18	03 Nov 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	480000 people	14.6, 47.6	Yemen
18	04 Nov 2015 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.3, 46.5	Yemen

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Yemen	Aden
Yemen	Hadhramaut
Yemen	'Ataq

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mayfa'Ah	MFY	unknown

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in As Sufal, Yemen. This height is estimated for 03 Nov 2015 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 02 Nov 2015 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Nov 2015 04:00	As Sufal	Yemen	0.4
	03 Nov 2015 07:00	Balhaf	Yemen	0.2
	03 Nov 2015 07:00	Jilah	Yemen	0.2
	03 Nov 2015 06:00	Bir Ali	Yemen	0.2
	03 Nov 2015 10:00	'Ain Ba Ma'bad	Yemen	0.2
	01 Nov 2015 15:00	Hadiboh	Yemen	0.2
	03 Nov 2015 03:00	Burum	Yemen	0.2
	03 Nov 2015 09:00	'Ain al-Juwairi	Yemen	0.1
	01 Nov 2015 15:00	Qadub	Yemen	0.1
	01 Nov 2015 19:00	Steroh	Yemen	0.1
	01 Nov 2015 18:00	Qulansiyah	Yemen	0.1
	03 Nov 2015 03:00	Fuwwah	Yemen	0.1
	03 Nov 2015 02:00	Al Juwaibiyat	Yemen	0.1
	03 Nov 2015 09:00	Al Haibala	Yemen	0.1
	01 Nov 2015 19:00	Gishub	Yemen	0.1
	03 Nov 2015 03:00	Zulumah	Yemen	0.1
	01 Nov 2015 15:00	Siqirah	Yemen	0.1
	01 Nov 2015 17:00	Ghubbah	Yemen	0.1
	01 Nov 2015 15:00	Qashlu	Yemen	0.1
	03 Nov 2015 03:00	Al Mukalla	Yemen	0.1