Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for EARL-16
in Guatemala, Belize

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EARL-16 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Guatemala, Belize
Exposed population 110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (04 Aug 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 46 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 41.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 02 Aug 2016 16:00 102 8.7 million No people Honduras, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
Green 2 02 Aug 2016 21:00 111 12.9 million No people Honduras, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
Green 3 03 Aug 2016 03:00 120 36 million 90 thousand Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
Orange 4 03 Aug 2016 09:00 130 41.4 million 130 thousand Belize, Guatemala
Orange 5 03 Aug 2016 15:00 139 15.4 million 120 thousand Belize, Guatemala
Orange 6 03 Aug 2016 21:00 130 14.4 million 100 thousand Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
Green 7 04 Aug 2016 03:00 120 4.8 million 90 thousand Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
Orange 8 04 Aug 2016 09:00 120 7.3 million 190 thousand Belize, Guatemala, Mexico
Green 9 04 Aug 2016 15:00 83 4.6 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 10 04 Aug 2016 21:00 65 4.9 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 11 05 Aug 2016 03:00 65 14.1 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 12 05 Aug 2016 09:00 65 14.8 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 13 05 Aug 2016 15:00 65 13.2 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 14 05 Aug 2016 21:00 93 16.2 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 15 06 Aug 2016 03:00 93 21.6 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 16 06 Aug 2016 09:00 65 41.5 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize
Green 17 06 Aug 2016 15:00 46 41.5 million 220 thousand Guatemala, Belize

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 02 Aug 2016 16:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 16.3, -80.2
GREEN
2 02 Aug 2016 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 26000 people 16.4, -81.5 Honduras
GREEN
3 03 Aug 2016 03:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 110000 people 16.4, -83 Honduras
GREEN
4 03 Aug 2016 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 500000 people 16.1, -83.7 Honduras
GREEN
5 03 Aug 2016 15:00 Tropical storm 111 2600 people 1.2 million people 16.5, -84.8 Belize
GREEN
6 03 Aug 2016 21:00 Tropical storm 111 <1000 people 2.8 million people 17.1, -86 Belize
GREEN
7 04 Aug 2016 03:00 Category 1 120 85000 people 3.3 million people 17.4, -87.6 Guatemala
ORANGE
8 04 Aug 2016 09:00 Category 1 120 110000 people 3 million people 17.3, -88.9 Guatemala
GREEN
9 04 Aug 2016 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 670000 people 17.2, -89.9 Guatemala
GREEN
10 04 Aug 2016 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 660000 people 17.6, -90.8 Guatemala
GREEN
11 05 Aug 2016 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 3.2 million people 18.1, -91.7 Guatemala
GREEN
12 05 Aug 2016 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 3.8 million people 18.4, -92.8 Mexico
GREEN
13 05 Aug 2016 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 3.3 million people 18.6, -94.2 Mexico
GREEN
14 05 Aug 2016 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 8.9 million people 18.8, -95 Mexico
GREEN
15 06 Aug 2016 03:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 12.4 million people 19, -95.9 Mexico
GREEN
16 06 Aug 2016 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 32.6 million people 19, -97 Mexico
GREEN
17 06 Aug 2016 15:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 19, -98 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico
Guatemala
Belize
Honduras
Nicaragua

Provinces

Region Province Country
Puebla Mexico
Tlaxcala Mexico
Mexico Mexico
Morelos Mexico
Veracruz Mexico
Hidalgo Mexico
Oaxaca Mexico
Distrito Federal Mexico
Guerrero Mexico
Tabasco Mexico
Chiapas Mexico
Campeche Mexico
Peten Guatemala
Quiche Guatemala
Alta Verapaz Guatemala
Quintana Roo Mexico
Orange Walk Belize
Cayo Belize
Izabal Guatemala
Toledo Belize
Corozal Belize
Belize Belize
Stann Creek Belize
Santa Barbara Honduras
Cortes Honduras
Yoro Honduras
Atlantida Honduras
Islas de la Bahia Honduras
Olancho Honduras
Colon Honduras
Gracias a Dios Honduras
Zelaya Nicaragua

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Puebla Puebla Mexico Major city 1.4 million people
Cholula Puebla Mexico City 150000 people
Rafael Lara Grajales Puebla Mexico City 11000 people
Tlaxcala Tlaxcala Mexico Major city 83000 people
Ciudad de México Distrito Federal Mexico Capital 8.5 million people
Jalapa Veracruz Mexico Major city -
Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico Major city 340000 people
Veracruz Veracruz Mexico Major city 560000 people
Belmopan Cayo Belize Capital 13000 people
Chetumal Quintana Roo Mexico Major city 130000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Huejotsingo PBC 2241 Civ. Paved Yes 11800
Tlaxcala 2500 0
Tehuacan TCN 1679 Civ. Paved No 5500
Cordoba 911 0
Juarez International MEX 2238 Civ. Paved Yes 12900
Cuernavaca CVJ 1280 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
Santa Lucia NLU 2240 0
El Lencero JAL 875 Civ. Paved No 5500
Tizayuca 2316 0
Tajin PAZ 138 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Las Bajadas VER 29 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Ciudad Aleman 61 0
Carlos A Carrillo 38 0
El Mendozal 69 0
Lerdo de Tejada 40 0
Minatitlan MTT 40 Civ. Paved Yes 6800
Minatitlan Old 27 0
Capitan Carlos Perez VSA 13 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Ciudad Pemex 6 0
Ciudad del Carmen CME 2 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Palenque PQM 61 0
Tenosique 25 0
San Pedro Tabasco 46 0
Xam XAM unknown 0
Paso Caballos PCG unknown 0
Carmelita CMM unknown 0
Santa Elena FRS 128 Civ. Paved Yes 10000
Dos Lagunas Peten DON unknown 0
Uaxactun UAX unknown 0
Inta Northeast 155 0
Poptun PON 505 Civ. Unpaved No 6800
Melchor de Mencos MCR unknown 0
Orange Walk ORZ unknown 0
Santa Cruz STU unknown 0
Corozal Municipal CZH unknown 0
Dangriga DGA unknown 0
Chetumal International CTM 12 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Sartaneja SJX unknown 0
Punta Gorda PND unknown 0
Philip S. W. Goldson International BZE 5 Civ. Paved Yes 7100
Melinda MDB unknown 0
Bananera 40 0
Independence INB unknown 0
Silver Creek SVK unknown 0
Caye Chapel CYC unknown 0
Puerto Barrios PBR 10 Civ. Paved No 8900
San Pedro SPR 1 0
Ramon Villeda Morales SAP 27 Civ. Paved Yes 9200
La Lima 23 0
Tela TEA 2 Civ. Paved No 4400
Utila Island UII unknown 0
Goloson International LCE 15 Civ. Paved Yes 9600
Roatan Island RTB 2 Civ. Paved Yes 6300
Coyoles CYL unknown 0
Olanchito OAN unknown 0
Guanaja GJA 11 0
Tocoa TCF unknown 0
Trujillo 3 0
Trujillo Capiro TJI unknown 0
Gualaco GUO unknown 0
Bonito Oriental 22 0
San Esteban SET unknown 0
Limon LMH unknown 0
Iriona IRN unknown 0
Brus Laguna Araslaya BHG unknown 0
Islas del Cisne 12 Civ. Unpaved No 4600
Ahuas AHS 30 0
Mocoron / Durzuna 76 0
Puerto Lempira PEU 8 Civ. Unpaved No 5000

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Vera Cruz MXVER Mexico
Alvarado MXAVD Mexico
Minatitlan MXMTT Mexico
Coatzacoalcos MXCOA Mexico
Rabon Grande Mexico
Nanchital MXNAN Mexico
Dos Bocas MXDBT Mexico
Frontera MXFRN Mexico
Concepcion Mexico
Ciudad Del Carmen MXCME Mexico
Corozal Belize
Chetumal MXCTM Mexico
Livingston GTLIV Guatemala
Belize BZBZE Belize
Stann Creek Belize
Puerto Barrios GTPBR Guatemala
Santo Tomas de Castilla GTSTC Guatemala
Puerto Cortes HNPCR Honduras
Tela HNTEA Honduras
Utila Island Honduras
Puerto Este Honduras
La Ceiba HNLCE Honduras
Coxen Bay Honduras
Puerto Castilla HNPCA Honduras
Guanaja Island HNGJA Honduras
Trujillo Honduras
Islas Santanilla Honduras
Caratasco Honduras
Puerto Lempire Honduras
Cape Gracias A Dios Honduras

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Manuel Avila Camacho Atoyac 1946
San Jose Atlangatepec Zahuapan 1959
La Soledad Apulco 1962
Tenango Coacuila 1910
Necaxa Necaxa 1909
Yosocuta Huajuapan 1969
Presa Miguel Aleman Presidente Aleman Temascal Rio Tonto 1955
Miguel de la Madrid Cerro de Oro Santo Domingo 1991

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Aug 2016 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (151 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 06 Aug 2016 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.5
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Paso Real Mexico  0.4
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.4
03 Aug 2016 21:00 El Capulin Nicaragua  0.4
03 Aug 2016 21:00 Cedeno Honduras  0.4
03 Aug 2016 21:00 Santo Tomas Nicaragua  0.4
03 Aug 2016 21:00 Mangle Alto Nicaragua  0.4
03 Aug 2016 21:00 Barrancones Honduras  0.4
06 Aug 2016 03:00 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.4
06 Aug 2016 04:00 Veracruz Mexico  0.3
06 Aug 2016 01:00 Buen Pais Mexico  0.3
06 Aug 2016 01:00 Alvarado Mexico  0.3
06 Aug 2016 02:00 Salinas Mexico  0.3
04 Aug 2016 00:00 Gualora Honduras  0.3
04 Aug 2016 00:00 Condega Honduras  0.3
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Sabancuy Mexico  0.3
03 Aug 2016 00:00 Cauauira Honduras  0.3
03 Aug 2016 07:00 Dapat Honduras  0.3
04 Aug 2016 11:00 Stann Creek Town Belize  0.2
05 Aug 2016 08:00 Francisco I. Madero Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 08:00 San Pedro Belize  0.2
05 Aug 2016 21:00 Montepio Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 09:00 Chetumal Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 09:00 Calderita Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 00:00 Conejo Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2016 07:00 Kaski Honduras  0.2
04 Aug 2016 12:00 Santeneja Belize  0.2
05 Aug 2016 08:00 Hidalgo Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2016 13:00 Monte de Oro Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 11:00 Commerce Bight Village Belize  0.2
04 Aug 2016 09:00 El Volcancillo Honduras  0.2
04 Aug 2016 11:00 Freetown Area Belize  0.2
04 Aug 2016 09:00 Mullins Belize  0.2
05 Aug 2016 09:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2016 04:00 San Pedro Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 05:00 Laja Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2016 07:00 Barra de Caratasca Honduras  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 Tamiahua Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 05:00 Hacienda La Chepona El Salvador  0.2
05 Aug 2016 10:00 Tupilco Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 05:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 05:00 Salmoral Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2016 09:00 Claura Honduras  0.2
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Noham Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2016 13:00 Sanchez Magallanes Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2016 13:00 Tonala Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 07:00 Tecolutla Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 Nautla Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 El Laurel Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2016 11:00 Barra del Patuca Honduras  0.2
04 Aug 2016 15:00 Dos Hermanas Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 15:00 Calderas Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 00:00 Las Pozas Nicaragua  0.2
05 Aug 2016 15:00 Majahual Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 02:00 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2016 02:00 Chenkan Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 El Naranjal Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 La Mata Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 Agua Dulce Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 06:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2016 07:00 Yahurabila Honduras  0.2
06 Aug 2016 07:00 Tenixtepec Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2016 07:00 Vega de Alatorre Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Macho Creek Guatemala  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Puerto Barrios Guatemala  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Corozo Guatemala  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 La Graciosa Guatemala  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 San Francisco del Mar Guatemala  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Barra del Motagua Guatemala  0.1
06 Aug 2016 06:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 05:00 La Majada Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2016 12:00 Maya Beach Belize  0.1
05 Aug 2016 16:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 07:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Machacal Guatemala  0.1
05 Aug 2016 14:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 06:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 23:00 Punta de Fisga Cuba  0.1
03 Aug 2016 23:00 Aguas Claras Cuba  0.1
05 Aug 2016 17:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
05 Aug 2016 17:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 09:00 Tusi Cocal Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 10:00 Mocobila Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 14:00 Tasbarraya Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 14:00 Bruner Honduras  0.1
04 Aug 2016 04:00 Xcalak Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 19:00 Guanaja Honduras  0.1
04 Aug 2016 06:00 Guerrero El Salvador  0.1
04 Aug 2016 06:00 El Carmen Nicaragua  0.1
04 Aug 2016 06:00 El Cacao El Salvador  0.1
04 Aug 2016 01:00 Guanimar Cuba  0.1
04 Aug 2016 01:00 El Cajio Cuba  0.1
04 Aug 2016 13:00 Bacalar Chico Belize  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Cambalache Guatemala  0.1
05 Aug 2016 17:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 16:00 Donel Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 15:00 Trujillo Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 15:00 Barranco Blanco Honduras  0.1
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Ranas Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2016 05:00 Corral de Mulas El Salvador  0.1
06 Aug 2016 07:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 09:00 Rio Platano Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 20:00 Rio Esteban Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 20:00 Miranda Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Puerto Castilla Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 15:00 Pital Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 20:00 Red Cliff Honduras  0.1
04 Aug 2016 07:00 Conchaguita El Salvador  0.1
04 Aug 2016 01:00 Hoquel Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2016 01:00 Champoton Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 06:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 06:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 06:00 El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 06:00 Los Ebanos Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 07:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 15:00 El Urraco Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 16:00 Iriona Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 16:00 La Puerta Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 21:00 El Cuyo Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2016 03:00 Puerto Madero Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2016 13:00 New Haven Belize  0.1
05 Aug 2016 16:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 07:00 Emilio Carranza Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2016 11:00 Monkey River Belize  0.1
03 Aug 2016 09:00 Huarta Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 14:00 Baltimore Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Limera Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Balfate Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Betulia Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Santa Fe Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 20:00 Black Rock Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 20:00 Barbareta Honduras  0.1
04 Aug 2016 00:00 El Tanque Nicaragua  0.1
04 Aug 2016 00:00 El Puente Nicaragua  0.1
04 Aug 2016 00:00 La Chacara Nicaragua  0.1
04 Aug 2016 00:00 Venecia Nicaragua  0.1
04 Aug 2016 00:00 Jiquilillo Nicaragua  0.1
03 Aug 2016 21:00 Alligartor Nose Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 21:00 Santa Elena Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Punta Manabique Guatemala  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Pixoy Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Telchac Puerto Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 22:00 Chabihau Mexico  0.1
05 Aug 2016 15:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 05:00 El Tular Mexico  0.1
05 Aug 2016 16:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
06 Aug 2016 05:00 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2016 15:00 Empalme Honduras  0.1
03 Aug 2016 15:00 Barra de Chapagua Honduras  0.1